Roger Smith

There are some records in N America going back into the 18th century, if you want to see some detailed examples have a look in climate change forum for a thread on Toronto and NYC climate stats, Toronto goes back to 1840 and I found a station at Providence RI going back to 1831. A summary of that location's daily records 1831-60 gives a basic overview that supports the idea parts of 19th century could have been slightly warmer (than 1871-1900) but not as warm as last 30-40 yrs. 

UK "Central England Temperature" series goes further back, a period between 1710 and 1739 is almost as warm as mid-20th century and about 0.5 C cooler than more recent decades. The interval from 1659 to 1709 was colder than any later intervals, 1684 to 1709 in particular very cold (this is the later part of the maunder minimum). 

Before that we only have tree ring records and such, together with anecdotal reports about extremes. Some believe 1540 could have been a summer like 2022 in Europe for drought and extreme heat. It was recorded that the Rhine almost dried up and heat was described as severe leading to deaths. Perhaps of significance, this was a very active solar period between two lower intervals, the Sporer minimum of the 15th century, and the maunder minimum. 

There is also the well known postulate that severe drought caused major cultural shifts in the southwestern U.S., such as the migration of the formerly dominant Anasazi people in the "four corners" region. This is dated to 1150-1200 A.D.

Climate change is real but it isn't new. A region between Chad and Libya used to have a lush savanna climate and a lake fed a now-extinct river, the "Yellow Nile" that flowed east to join the Nile near where the other two sources of the Nile ("white" and "blue" Niles) now combine in Sudan. That river stopped flowing about six thousand years ago and people in that region had to migrate to find reliable water sources. But there are small lakes left and even a remnant population of wildlife including a few crocs and hippos, in a desert oasis setting now. That climate change was related to the final drying up and disappearance of Lake Lahontan in the great basin region. All that's left of formerly gigantic Lake Lahontan are a half dozen salt lakes and plenty of other seasonal dry lakes scattered across Nevada and Utah. As recently as 17,000 years ago, when the Laurentide glaciers were still near their full extent, the climate of Nevada was about like south-central B.C. nowadays, with reliable rainfall and probably a much colder winter. 

GFS develops a large blocking high over Quebec reaching central pressures over 1050 and that could play a role in storm development after 20th. Pattern does not look torched, lows forming in central plains states would be prone to coastal redevelopment if that high were longer lasting. But it's more of a mixed or freezing rain signal for interior regions of NY and NE than a snowfall indicator. I continue to look to Dec 26-27 as timing for major storm development.

Greatest winter since 2021-22 anyway ...

Another history note on Dec 11, 1944 .. Toronto had its heaviest calendar day snowfall, 19 inches, with 3 additional after 00h a total of 22" fell, second only to 23" in Dec (25-26) 1872 during easterly winds in frigid weather, that one was a lake effect event. 

*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ ***

Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4

RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0

BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0

wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0

Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2

Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3

___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0

so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0

Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0

DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0

RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3

======================================

Will add snowfall to date around end of Dec -- good luck !

Not many U.S. stations go back into 1840s and 1850s, Toronto does, and you notice right away that winters in the 1840s were generally milder than in any decade until perhaps the 1930s, also snowfall tends to peak for Toronto around 1870. Winters were generally quite severe until the 1920s when a more modern trend began. I would not expect to find any location with similar temperatures in 1870s to 1890s as in recent times, it was generally quite a cold period, 1875, 1883 and 1888 are probably the three coldest years on record in any locations that observed back then. 1904 was also a very cold year. 

Personally while I acknowledge the science behind climate change I think we just happened to peak in fossil fuel output at the worst possible time when natural variability was swinging towards its own peak. If we weren't here, a lot of these trends would still be in evidence. We are just making things a bit worse. Perhaps we will catch a break and run into a cooling trend on the natural variability side. Some thought it would happen with the solar downturn (which seems to be over already) but strong El Nino events like 2015-16 overwhelmed that possibility. 

It will snow again, I don't believe the shift is that great, one encouraging sign, I just updated a data base for arctic Canada and winter 2022-23 was colder than almost all winters since 1970 and fairly similar to averages before 1970. This current winter is not as cold so far in the arctic regions.  

Probably a case of non-accumulating flurries 0300-0900h 11th (mon) in metro NYC, to 1-3" parts of NJ, with the rapid temp fall, black ice conditions for morning commute in outlying parts of n NJ, hudson valley and w CT. I would be more concerned about ice than snow for road safety issues. 

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): 

(1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread.

(2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available...

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): 

(1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread.

(2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available...

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): 

(1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread.

(2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available...

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): 

(1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread.

(2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available...

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Extension of map of recent winter warming into central and n Canada would likely display similar values into arctic islands. At Cambridge Bay on Victoria Island, average of coldest winter mo is up from -35 C to -32 C comparing 1991-2020 data to 1961-1990. Summers are about 1 C warmer now. Snow free season was mid-June to early September and is now late may to mid-September at location (near 70 N). It's a similar story at Resolute located about 500 miles n.e. in central arctic islands. Warming in region not quite as pronounced as data from Svalbard or n Russia but about 2/3 as extreme. Even so, a lot of variability year to year, NWPassage opens up to recreational sailing vessels about 3/4 of summers now but a few recent years were "no passage" -- normally if July means exceed 9 C at YCB and 5 C at YRB, NWPassage will open, and if not, ice will clog straits all of Aug-Sep (normal open season). Back in mid-20century it was considered rare for NWPassage to become ice free. 

Speaking of 1888, apparently NYC residents of the time got weather forecasts in the daily papers, sent by telegraph from DC, but the blizzard brought down the wires in between DC and NY, and the forecast didn't arrive on the morning of the storm. All they knew was a rain changing to snow event was due in, as per the previous forecast, but no word on severity, which was actually in the forecast never received. This could be why by 1895 the weather bureau opened a forecast office in New York. 

People were shorter in 1888, perhaps it wasn't under-measured. 

We have a lower range to our west and there is a slight chinook effect in the Columbia valley, but it never gets above 50F here in any winter patterns, at least not before late Feb. I saw on Spokane news on TV in local lounge it was 52F today in GEG and CDA, and rivers are in flood around Portland OR where somebody drowned while out for a walk in a park. Our snow is running off fairly steadily and there won't be any left below our elevation by Tuesday afternoon at this rate. Almost a warm rain at moment, 46F. 

Nasty up my way, snow turned to rain and it's very slick on regional roads especially above my elevation of 3500' ... temp warmed from 20s to 40s today and it's quite foggy.

Well I had a look (I participate in those contests) and apparently herb @ maws won the 2009-10 contest, the website does not preserve details but given 15-20 were usually in these contests, herb probably forecast close to what happened. I managed to win 2010-2011 and 2011-12 which surprised me since 2011-12 was probably a very snow-deficient winter but I do vaguely recall predicting a mild winter on Eastern wx before we got going here.

I was going to plug the ne-wx site and will do it now, follow that link above and check it out. Don Sutherland (NYC) routinely does very well in storm forecasts. 

From an earlier post, these are averages of the past contest winters:

averages 2014/2015-2022/2023 ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ___ (total 48.4)

past seven avg (2016/17- 22/23) ____ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 ___ (total 33.4)

GFS run looks similar to Dec 1967, stayed mild to about 22nd and flipped to cold, very cold first two weeks of Jan 1968.

I don't foresee entire winter staying mild like last winter, more of an oscillating pattern, some colder spells. Still believe an energy peak around Dec 26-27 could be a snowstorm scenario. Looking at 16d GFS (Dec 19), if actual pattern resembled it, would expect closed low to drop from PAC NW to TX and storm would form in eastern Gulf. If not sufficient blocking to N, NE of NY-PA, could be a strong cutter instead. Anyway, some kind of active wx likely Dec 26-27. 

Table of forecasts for December 2023

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

wxallannj ________________________ +2.5 _ +2.2 _+2.0 __+3.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___+2.4 _+2.0 _+0.2

so_whats_happening ____________ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___+2.2 _+1.8 _+0.5

RJay _____________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.4 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 __ +1.7 _+1.3 _+1.1 ___ +2.3 _+1.2 _+2.7

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ 0.0 _ -0.3 _ -0.5

RodneyS _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 __ +2.7 _+0.8 _+1.8 ___+1.7 _ +0.1 __0.0

___ Consensus ____________________+1.0 _ +0.9 _+0.6 __+1.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

DonSutherland 1 _________________ +1.0 _ +0.3 __0.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.4 ___+3.0 _+2.3 _+3.3

Tom ______________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.9 __+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _+0.3 _-0.2

BKViking _________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.6 __+1.1 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+0.7 _+1.6

___ Normal ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smith ______________________-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 __ +0.4 _-1.0 _-1.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.5 _+1.5

wxdude64 _______________________ -1.4 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___+1.1 _ +0.3 _-0.3 

=====================

Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ -0.3 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ____+1.6 _+1.8 _-0.7 ___ +3.8 _+4.3 _ -1.7

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is coldest for ORD and tied coldest DEN.

Snowfall contest entries will be tabulated around Dec 10th

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Final Report

Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3 contests entered.

... DonS and wxallannj have "high min" of 5 seasonal points. 

FORECASTER _______ Winter __Pts __ Spring __Pts ___Summer __ Pts ___ SEP_OCT_NOV __ Autumn _Pts 

_  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  __ ___ ____ __TOTAL points

DonSutherland1 _______ 1722 ___ 6 _____ 1761 ___ 5 _____ 2044 ___10 ____ 742 _ 682 _ 618 __ 2042 __ 10 ______ 31

wxallannj ______________ 1699 ___ 5 _____ 1765 ___ 6 _____ 1854 ___ 6 ____ 650 _ 650 _ 648 __ 1948 ___ 7 _______ 24

hudsonvalley21 _______ 1675 ___ 4 ______1824 ___ 10 _____1756 ___ 2 ____ 652 _ 682 _ 604 __ 1938 ___ 5 _______ 21

___ Consensus ________ 1682 __ 4.3 ____ 1772 ___ 6.9 ____ 1829 __4.8 ____ 670 _ 654 _ 594 __ 1918 ___ 4.8 _____ 20.8

RodneyS ______________ 1760 ____7 _____ 1543 ____ 1 _____ 1872 ___ 7 ____ 750 _ 542 _ 464 __ 1756 ___ 3 _______ 18

RJay ___________________1879 ___ 10 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _____ 1733 ___ 1 ____ 538 _ 544 _ 590 __ 1672 ___ 1 ________ 17

wxdude64 _____________1518 ____ 1 _____ 1773 ____ 7 _____ 1832 ___ 5 ____ 614 _ 620 _ 586 __ 1820 ___ 4 _______ 17

so_whats_happening __ 1620 ___2 _____ -- -- _____0 _____1024* ___ 1 ____ 652 _ 687 _ 600 __ 1939 ___ 6 _______ 9

Scotty Lightning ______ 1147 ___ 1 _____ 1676 ____ 3 _____ 1642 ____ 1 ____ 650 _ 612 _ 546 __ 1808 ___ 3 _______ 8

Tom __________________ 1545 ____ 1 _____ 1281 ____ 1 _____ 1818 ____ 4 ____ 590 _ 550 _ 588 __ 1728 ___ 1 _______ 7

Roger Smith __________ 1626 ___ 3 _____ 1409 ____ 1 _____ 1460 ____ 1 ____ 494 _ 690 _ 564 __ 1748 ___ 2 ______  7

BKViking ______________ 1576 ___ 1 _____ 1580 ____ 1 _____ 1804 ____ 3 ____ 676 _ ----_ 586 __ 1262*___ 1 _______ 6

Rhino 16 _______________ -- -- ___ 0 _____ 1675 ____2 _____1068* ___ 1 ____ 664 _ ---- _ 656 __ 1320* ___ 1 ______ 4

___ Normal ____________ 1076 ____1 _____ 1570 ____ 1 _____ 1682 ____ 1 ____ 546 _ 492 _ 556 __ 1594 ___ 1 _______ 4

StormchaserChuck ____ 674** _ 0 _____ 1212*____ 1 _____ -- -- __ -- -- __ 562 __ --- _ --- ____ 562** __ 0 ______ 1

* 2/3 contests entered in season - eligible for 1 point.

** 1/3 contests entered -- no points in four seasons contest

_______________________________________________

Congrats to Don Sutherland1 who blazed ahead in summer and autumn (top scores in both seasons). 

Wxallannj was a solid second scoring well in each season. 

hudsonvalley was third, with a top score in spring 2023. 

RodneyS fourth, RJay (top score winter 2022-23) and wxdude64 tied fifth

On 12/1/2023 at 1:56 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2006)
NYC: 70 (2006)
LGA: 71 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 15 (1976)
NYC: 8 (1875)
LGA: 19 (1976)

Historical:

 

1831 - The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

1896 - The temperature at Kipp, MT, rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum)

1970: Four tornadoes impacted east-central Wisconsin during the morning hours. The strongest tornado, an F3, formed at 10:15 AM near Medina in Outagamie County.  The twister moved northeast at 50 mph and destroyed twenty barns and five houses.

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Heavy lake effect snow fell downwind of the U.S. Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York reported 16 inches of snow, with thundersnow reported late in the afternoon. While the eastern U.S. experienced much colder than normal temperatures on December 1, much of Alaska was basking in above average warmth. Many daily temperature records were set across this region through the beginning of the month.

 

2006: A winter storm produced more than 6 inches of snow along a 1,000-mile-long path from central Oklahoma to northern Michigan from November 30-December 1st. The storm also produced significant freezing rain, which impacted the St. Louis area. An estimated 500 or more homes and businesses were without power in the St. Louis area after this storm.

2007 - During December 1-3, a powerful storm with hurricane force winds struck the Northwest U.S. The storm brought heavy rain and wind gusts over 100 mph, with the highest reading being 129 mph at Bay City, OR. The strong winds brought power lines down, and the heavy rain caused widespread flooding and triggered landslides (BBC News). According to reports, 8 fatalities were attributed to the storm and about 37,000 homes and businesses were left without power in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. President Bush declared a federal disaster in several counties in Washington and Oregon to provide recovery assistance (Associated Press).

2011 - Wind speeds as high as 102 MPH were measured in Centerville, Utah and surrounding cities. Damage was reported throughout Weber and Davis counties ranging from South Ogden down to Bountiful. More than 400 trees were down at the Davis Golf course alone due to the winds. Up to 54,000 residences were without power throughout the day and into the evening. Train service between Layton and Salt Lake City was suspended due to damaged train stations, debris on the train tracks, and power outages. Cleanup costs totaled $8 million in Centerville alone. No injuries were reported from the wind, but a number of injuries were reported from those helping with the cleanup effort.

I was going to post yesterday but got lost in a wilderness of forecast contests, Dec 1 1962 you can add to files:

1962 _ Canada's 50th annual football championship, the Grey Cup, was severely affected by dense fog and by the third quarter the game was halted; it was not possible to play until the next day; despite better conditions, no further scoring occurred. This occurred at the Exhibition Stadium in Toronto, known as the "mistake by the lake" ... several later Grey Cup games at the same location were subjected to heavy rain (1982) and strong winds (1965) on late Nov dates. Toronto built an indoor domed stadium in the 1990s. Vancouver and montreal also have domes but other locations sometimes used resemble Lambeau Field in Green Bay in Dec or early January. The severe fog episode in 1962 was caused by a stagnant high lasting almost a week. 

You could also add this note, perhaps to other data for Dec 3rd:

1982 _ Toronto City hit 68.4 F on this date, a full 8F warmer than its previous Dec record of 61F (Dec 31, 1875). Toronto records go back to 1840. This record has not been surpassed since 1982. The month's average 2.3C was also a new (tied 1923) record (again tied 1998) but that shared record was broken four times after 1998,  in 2006 (2.9C not a record, see 2001), 2001 at 3.2 C and most recently in 2015 at 5.2 C (and also in 2021 at 2.5 C but that did not beat 2015, 2001 or 2006). 2011, 2012 and 1984 round out the top ten. Dec is the only month to have nine of its top ten in the post-1980 era. February managed eight, 1954 and 1976 are its less recent two. 

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Oh boy a lot of big Denver snow forecasts. Would think this would be further south into NM region with the STJ increase.

Just a reminder to you and all entrants, our snowfall contest runs Sep to June and DEN is already at 10.4" -- does it alter your assessment at all? All snowfall forecasts can be edited to Dec 10, forecast table date. Except for 10.4" already measured, I am equal to your forecast at 45" if you were basing it on now to end.

ORD (2.7), DTW (2.4"), BUF (2.3") and BTV (5.0") already saw a bit of snow too. Those count towards contest values.

Note also, a forecast contest is available (for 25th annual) at TQ's "northeast US snowfall contest" site; his contest period is Dec 1 to march 31, and because of late startup the deadline is Dec 10. There will also be storm forecast contests. DonS and I are regular participants, and I think some others from Am Wx are participants too, under different usernames. Give it a look, it's a blast (to see Don beating everyone). I did well in 2010 (or was it 1870?). 

Link to it here: 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 _ +0.4 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.5

18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 (DTW) _ 89.2 (BUF) __ 45.0 _ 79.3 (BTV) _ 3.0 (SEA)

Just a heads up for contest entrants, 30 days hath Nov ... and it's a wrap.