Roger Smith
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Posts posted by Roger Smith
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8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:
Oh boy a lot of big Denver snow forecasts. Would think this would be further south into NM region with the STJ increase.
Just a reminder to you and all entrants, our snowfall contest runs Sep to June and DEN is already at 10.4" -- does it alter your assessment at all? All snowfall forecasts can be edited to Dec 10, forecast table date. Except for 10.4" already measured, I am equal to your forecast at 45" if you were basing it on now to end.
ORD (2.7), DTW (2.4"), BUF (2.3") and BTV (5.0") already saw a bit of snow too. Those count towards contest values.
Note also, a forecast contest is available (for 25th annual) at TQ's "northeast US snowfall contest" site; his contest period is Dec 1 to march 31, and because of late startup the deadline is Dec 10. There will also be storm forecast contests. DonS and I are regular participants, and I think some others from Am Wx are participants too, under different usernames. Give it a look, it's a blast (to see Don beating everyone). I did well in 2010 (or was it 1870?).
Link to it here:
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-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 _ +0.4 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.5
18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 (DTW) _ 89.2 (BUF) __ 45.0 _ 79.3 (BTV) _ 3.0 (SEA)
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Just a heads up for contest entrants, 30 days hath Nov ... and it's a wrap.
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Northeast U.S. snowstorm Dec 26-27. Your move Google AI.
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Current scoring in order
(with alternate scoring for one additional storm)
(scroll down for final scoring table)
forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3
AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5
IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0
AM _ wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5
AM _ hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5
AM _ solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5
AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5
AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5
--- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5
--- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5
AM _ Stebo (26) __________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5
NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0
AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5
AM _ GramaxRefugee (33)_______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 _______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5
AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5
AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5
--- ___ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7
AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5
AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0
IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0
NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ___ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5
IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5
AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0
AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0
_______ Consensus _______________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8
AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0
--- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5
AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0
AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5
AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___ 21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0
AM _ Marsman (14) _______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5
AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0
AM _ Yoda (40) ____________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0
AM _ George BM (41) ______________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0
AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) ________13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0
AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5
NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5
AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5
AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0
AM _ Newman (30) ________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0
AM _ rclab (43) ____________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5
AM _ crownweather (11) ___________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5
AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0
AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0
AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5
AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5
AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5
AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5
IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0
AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5
AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5
AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5
AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0
AM _ Matthew70 (32) ____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5
AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0
NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5
AM _ GaWx (21) ___________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0
NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0
AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0
AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _____________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5
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54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added
NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum
Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)
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Final results 2023 Tropical Contest
** note: ranks are shown (a) all entrants and (b) within your home forum, as three forums were participating (American Weather had the majority of entries, Boards.ie and Net-weather also had a few entries). As an example of how to read your contest ranks, taking 19th place North Arlington 101, that entry was 19th overall and 14th among American Weather Forum entrants. (19 14AM).
Ranks are given for non-contest entrants but those do not affect later ranks of actual contest entrants.
forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your final score)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err)
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3
Ranks**
01 01AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___
02 01IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___
03 02AM _wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___
04 03AM _hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___
05 04AM _solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___
06 05AM _diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ____ 92.5 ___
07 06AM _Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___
(08) --- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___
(08) --- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___
08 07AM _ Stebo (26) __________________15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___
09 01NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___
10 08AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___
11 09AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___
12 10AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___
13 11AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___
(13) --- __ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ____ 90.5 ___
14 12AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___
15 13AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___
16 02IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___
17 02NW _Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______89.0 ___
18 03IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___
19 14AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___
20 15AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___
21 ---- _______ Consensus ___________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___
21 16AM _ JConsor (13) ________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___
22 ---- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___
22 17AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___
23 18AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___
24 19AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___
25 20AM _ Marsman (14) ______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___
26 21AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___
27 22AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___
28 23AM _ George BM (41) _____________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___
29 24AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___
30 25AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___
31 03NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____82.0 ___
32 26AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___
33 27AM _ North hills wx (24) __________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___
34 28AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___
35 29AM _ rclab (43) ___________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____ -18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___
36 30AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___
37 31AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 _____-14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___
38 32AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___
39 33AM _ Cat Lady (7) ________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____ -18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 ___
40 34AM _ RJay (17) ____________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___
41 35AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___
42 36AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___
43 04IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___
44 37AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___
45 38AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___
46 39AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___
47 40AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___
48 41AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___
49 42AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___
50 04NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ___ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 _____ 69.0 ___
51 43AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___
52 05NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____ 10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___
53 44AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________ 10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___ -27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___
54 45AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___ -45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___
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54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added
NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum
Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)
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Applying some research into energy peaks and feeding that into projected patterns, it looks like GFS is on track for first ten days, so I will just comment past that interval.
Large energy peak Dec 11-12 is already showing up on model runs and I believe the depiction today is about how this one plays out, a coastal secondary acting a bit like an Apps runner and so 40s to low 50s, windy and turning very cold afterwards (briefly), 1-3" snow potential for higher portions of region west and north.
A more moderate energy peak around Dec 18-20 would likely be a Colorado to Ohio to Vermont storm track, so could produce some warm advection snows in e PA and n md. In a best case scenario, blocking begins to establish to north and forces this one to redevelop around Delmarva, then it could be a 4-6 inch snowfall event. For now I will go with low 40s, rain in I-95 corridor and mixed precip north.
A better chance for a winter storm exists in period Dec 25-27 for a more classic nor'easter and as this is a very large energy peak, it could be a significant storm. If blocking fails to develop by then it would more likely be a cutter. But if there is going to be one big storm in December, I would say Dec 25-26 (26-27 timing more for New England).
This approximately seven-day energy peak cycle will probably maintain into January and I look for very large amplitude upper patterns that could produce all sorts of anomalous conditions across eastern NA. February may return to more of a classic coastal storm track and I am more optimistic about Feb than Jan. A key transitional period will be around Jan 24-25. If a blockbuster Feb is on tap, signs of its arrival will be either a fast change from mild to cold around those dates, or the onset of a storm track similar to Jan 30 to early Feb 2010.
I believe it will be a very active winter and not very similar to last winter, or 2015-16 in terms of only two wintry events of note. From snowfall contest I can see this is a fairly widespread viewpoint.
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Nice work GAtech, and all top finishers, full standings can be seen in a table I created a while ago now back on page 2. Terpeast was able to secure fourth with closest DCA forecast. I was able to avoid last by any DCA freeze before Dec 28.
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It could still be today with a midnight low as it's likely to drop well below 32F by 0600h. At mid-day only around 24F in locations near overnight cresting high. Could see 18-24 F around region by 0600h.
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A very dry and relatively sunny November up by BC-WA border, in contrast to usual low cloud and mixed rain/snow sort of regime we expect. Quite cold also, GEG anomaly is +0.8F but I suspect we are closer to -2 or so. Not much snow yet even at higher elevations, cover ranges from trace amounts in valley to 1-2" in town to 4-6" alpine ski areas at around 5,000' nearby. Bears are not fully into hibernation and still looking for unlocked cars around town. Last few nights very cold, around 15 F.
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The midnight low was 35F and it appears to be stuck around 36F at 0400h. Looks possible for a freeze before 0800h but not a done deal yet. Even so, there is no doubt about the outcome now, except for possible changes of ranks 4, 5 and 11 to end for last two in current ranking table (see previous table for details).
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With a cold day expected tomorrow, here is a historical overview for NYC:
Records for Nov 28:
low max __ 24 1871 (min was 16)
low min ___ 15 1930 (max was 27)
The low max was tied second coldest of Nov to 28th, with 24F also on Nov 21st 1879 and they were one deg behind 23F on 22nd 1880. It was 25F again on Nov 29, 1871 for another record low max. These early season marks were all obliterated by 14F on Nov 30, 1875. The 1871 cold spell continued with 22F on Nov 30th and this is still second lowest max of month.
The lowest min before 28th was 12F on Nov 27, 1932. Again, this was blown away by 5F on Nov 30, 1875. The second lowest 12F was tied on Nov 30, 1929.
Since the 24 in 1871, 26 in 1901, and 27 in 1882 and 1930, the lowest max on Nov 28 was 31 in 1996. It was 35 in 2002, 2013.
Since the 15F in 1930, the lowest min was 22 on several occasions, most recently 1951. It was 23 in 1996.
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Last month of the 2023 contest year, but even so, a good month to enter for first time because (a) you will be fully participating in winter portion of contest Dec Jan Feb, and also (b) because you can enter the annual snowfall contest.
For temperatures, predict anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for these nine locations:
__ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA
and for snowfall, we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for ATL _IAH _ PHX so the order of forecasts for snow is
__ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV
(precise snowfall order does not matter so long as it's clear which locations are to be associated wit your numbers).
The temperature contest has a deadline for on-time penalty free entries, 06z Friday Dec 1st. For the snowfall contest, I would appreciate having your entries soon but no exact deadline, let's say 10th of Dec will be when I might contact any stragglers. (predict total seasonal snowfall including any already fallen, into spring of 2024)
By the way, a long-running "northeast US snowfall contest" blog site has gone dormant this fall and there is no call for forecasts, anyone know what's up? Some Am-Wx members participate in it, but I don't believe the organizer "TQ" is a member of Am-Wx. I hope all is well. I may see if I can collect some seasonal forecasts if the site does not come to life soon, and also, I may try to run some storm forecast contests similar to what normally occurs on that site, but here at American Weather. That will be announced separately if necessary (I hope it is not necessary).
Over and out ... Nov scoring estimates are posted including annual updates. DonS has a pretty substantial lead over wxallannj and hudsonvalley21, the two closest and those three are our only forecasters ahead of Consensus at present time. Rjay is fourth and wxdude64 has overtaken RodneyS as of current scoring.
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=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - NOVEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === ===
... ... one ranking difference so far, wxdude64 into 5th (was 6th)
Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold.
FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS
DonSutherland1 ___________ 766 _710 _ 776 __2252 __860 _842 _728 __2430__4682 __789 _680 _776 __2245 ____6927
wxallannj __________________ 721 _700 _ 735 __ 2156 __845 _838 _624__ 2307 __4463 __741 _694 _696 __ 2131 ____6594
___ Consensus _____________719 _678 _ 741 __ 2138__ 841 _738 _683 __2262 __4400 __ 657 _621 _ 822 __2100 ____6500
hudsonvalley21 ____________731 _684 _ 755 __2170 __856 _765 _673 __ 2294 __4464 __638 _572 _ 825 __ 2035 ____6499
RJay _______________________674 _644 _ 641 __1959 __ 785 _732 _726__ 2243 __4202 __ 633 _695 _ 827 __ 2155 ____ 6357
wxdude64 _________________714 _729 _ 672 __2115 __ 621 _778 _634 __ 2033 __4148 __ 729 _ 626 _ 794 __ 2149 ____6297
RodneyS __________________ 712 _668 _ 716 __2096 __ 677 _621 _708 __ 2006 __4102 __ 719 _ 556 _ 826 __ 2101 ____6203
Scotty Lightning ___________645 _640 _680 __1965 __ 741 _689 _634 __ 2064 __4029 __ 558 _474 _ 676 __ 1708 ____5737
... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ...
... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still (just) ahead of Roger Smith and 180 points below Scotty L ...
... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score is between 6th and 7th place above in the scoring table (just below RodneyS).
... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith.
... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1 and a little above 2nd place wxallannj.
... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 7th and 8th similar to pro-rated scores for Tom and BKViking.
... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 3rd and 4th just in front of RJay ..................................... ...... scores _ pro-rated to 11
Tom (10/11) _________________667 _612 _639 __1918 __616 _618 _632 __1866 __ 3784 __638 _490 _709 __1837 _____5621 (6183)
Roger Smith ________________642 _556 _560 __1758 __611 _563 _708 __1882 __ 3640 __ 545 _586 _816 __1947 ____ 5587
BKViking (10/11) ____________642 _584 _657 __1883 __ 729 _608 _635 __1972 __ 3855 __503 _526 _650 __1679 ____ 5534 (6087)
___ Normal __________________606 _602 _566 __1774 __642 _636 _530 __1808 __ 3582 __ 578 _406 _706 __1690 ____ 5272
Rhino16 (7/11) ______________490 _510 _502 __ 1502 __546 _526 _292 __1364 __ 2866 __ 395 _302 _504 __1201 ____ 4067 (6391)
so_whats_happening (7/11)_437 _395 _448 __ 1280 __498 _424 _411 __1333 __ 2613 __ 375 _406 _527 __ 1308 ____ 3921 (6155)
Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__251 _272 _268 ___791 __ 341 _ 174 _ 224 __ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (6688)
Terpeast (1/11) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (4438)
rainsucks (1/11) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (4204)
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___ Persistence ____________549 _450 _512 __1511 __688 _689 _642 __2019 ___3530 __ 420 _593 _612 __1625 ____5155
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Best Forecasts
* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)
^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (if applied to Normal, tied two forecast contest entrants)
FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months
DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 3*___ 4^___2*___ 1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug
wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____3***__2*____1 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2*____3* _ May(t),July, Nov
hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t)
___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May
RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__ 1___ 1*____0
wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr
RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep
Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0
Tom (10/11) ________________3*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0
Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 2*___ 2* ___ 2*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct
BKViking (10/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0
___ Normal _________________1^ ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
Rhino16 (7/11) _____________2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Nov
so_whats_happening (7/11) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0^ (Oct)
Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Feb
Terpeast (1/11) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0
rainsucks (1/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0
(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^
(so_whats_happening has a top score for October, before 1% penalty transferred it to Roger Smith. Shown as 0^
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EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY
So far, 77 of 99 forecasts qualify, 44 of them for warmest, and 33 for coldest
... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1, Nov 4-3 ...
19 of 77 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss.
FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct _Nov ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)
RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 _0-0 ____ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0
DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 _2-0 ____ 11-1 ______10.5 - 1.0
RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ____ 10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2
Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0_2-0 ____10-1 ______ 7.5 - 0.5
StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- __--- _____ 9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0
Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ ---_2*-0 ____7-0 _____ 5.33 - 0
wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0_ 1*-0____7-3 ______5.5 - 2.0
wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ____ 5-5 _____ 3.83 - 5.0
hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0_0-0 ____5-0 ______3.5 - 0.0
___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 _0-0 ___ 5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5
Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ____ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5
Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ____ 3-0 _____ 1.83 - 0
BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- _ 0-0 ____ 2-0 _____ 1.5 - 0
rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- _---- ___ 1-0 ______0.5 - 0
Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0
so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _0-0 ___ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1
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Probably Tuesday if it doesn't get to 32F before midnight, air mass currently in low 20s over e ND and it will be moving down across fresh snow cover in the midwest, so would expect lows around 28F at DCA and 24F at IAD on Tuesday. I will guess it is 33F at midnight (28:05z).
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Final scoring for Nov 2023
FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west____ TOTAL
Rhino16 ____________________88 _ 96 _ 86 __ 270 __ 98 _ 94 _ 56 __ 248 __ 518 __ 64 _ 24 _ 52 __ 140 _____ 658
wxallannj __________________ 96 _ 88 _ 86 __ 270 __ 78 _ 94 _ 50 __ 222 __ 492 __ 68 _ 64 _ 24 __ 156 _____ 648
DonSutherland1 ___________ 94 _ 80 _ 78 __ 252 __ 72 _ 64 _ 82 __ 218 __ 470 __ 84 _ 64 _ 00 __ 148 _____ 618
hudsonvalley21 ___________ 88 _ 62 _ 62 __ 212 __ 80 _ 88 _ 82 __ 250 __ 462 __ 42 _ 50 _ 50 __ 142 _____ 604
so_whats_happening ______ 96 _ 74 _ 66 __ 236 __ 72 _ 72 _ 74 __ 218 __ 454 __ 48 _ 48 _ 50 __ 146 _____ 600
___ Consensus _____________98 _ 78 _ 74 __ 250 __ 70 _ 68 _ 76 __ 214 __ 464 __ 38 _ 44 _ 48 __ 130 _____ 594
RJay ______________________ 94 _ 74 _ 66 __ 234 __ 78 _ 78 _ 46 __ 202 __ 436 __ 54 _ 56 _ 44 __ 154 _____ 590
Tom _______________________100 _ 82 _ 74 __ 256 __ 64 _ 60 _ 92 __216 __472 __ 34 _ 38 _ 44 __ 116 _____ 588
BKViking ___________________96 _ 78 _ 74 __ 248 __ 66 _ 58 _ 90 __ 214 __ 462 __ 28 _ 34 _ 62 __ 124 _____ 586
wxdude64 _________________76 _ 90 _ 92 __ 258 __ 42 _ 52 _ 94 __ 188 __ 446 __ 30 _ 58 _ 52 __ 140 _____ 586
Roger Smith _______________ 92 _100 _96 __288 __ 32 _ 44 _ 80 __ 156 __ 444 __ 10 _ 34 _ 76__ 120 _____ 564
___ Normal _______________ 94 _ 74 _ 66 __ 234 __ 68 _ 64 _ 86 __ 218 __ 452 __ 24 _ 14 _ 66 __ 104 _____ 556
Scotty Lightning __________ 74 _ 64 _ 66 __ 204 __ 68 _ 84 _ 66 __ 218 __ 422 __ 24 _ 34 _ 66 __ 124 _____ 546
RodneyS ___________________84 _ 72 _ 64 __ 220 __ 62 _ 36 _ 72 __ 170 __ 390 __ 10 _ 16 _ 48 __ 074 _____ 464
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Persistence (Oct 2023)_____48 _ 22 _ 00 __ 070 __ 70 _ 84 _ 78 __ 232 __ 302 __ 52 _ 96 _ 52 __ 200 _____ 502
==========================
Extreme forecasts
DCA _ Not a qualifier at -0.3.
NYC _ Not a qualifier at -1.3. Third coldest forecast was high score.
BOS _ (-1.7) _ A win for Roger Smith (-1.5) and a loss for wxdude64 (-2.1) with lowest forecast
ORD (+1.6), ATL (+1.8) _ Two wins for rhino16 with warmest forecasts, wxallannj shares win for ATL
SEA (-1.7) _ A win for Roger Smith with coldest forecast (-0.5).
IAH _ (-0.7) _ A win for wxdude64 with lowest forecast (-0.4)
DEN (+3.8), PHX (+4.3) _ Two wins for Don Sutherland, warmest forecasts (+3.0, +2.5) ... wxallannj shares win for PHX
________________
Annual update follows ... to be adjusted as Nov scores are finalized.
============
(actual forecasts follow)
Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __0.0
hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.3 _ +0.6 _+0.2 ___+0.6 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.8 _+0.8
RJay _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____+0.5 _+0.7 _+2.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.1 _ +1.1
___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0
DonSutherland1 ____________ 0.0 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ +0.2 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _+3.6
BKViking ___________________-0.1 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.2 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+0.2
Tom _______________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.4 ___ -0.2 _-0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.1
___ Consensus _____________-0.4 _ -0.2 _-0.4 ___+0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___+0.7 _+1.5 _+0.9
so_whats_happening ______ -0.5 __0.0 __0.0 ___ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.7 _+0.8
wxallannj __________________ -0.5 _-0.7 _-1.0 ____+0.5 _ +1.5 _+1.8 ___ +2.2 _+2.5 _+2.1
Roger Smith _______________ -0.7 _-1.3 _ -1.5 ___ -1.8 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ -0.7 _ +1.0 _ -0.5
Rhino16 ____________________-0.9 _-1.5 _-1.0 ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+0.5 _+0.7
RodneyS ___________________ -1.1 _ +0.1 _+0.1 ___ -0.3 _ -1.4 _ +0.7 ___ -0.7 _+0.1 _+0.9
wxdude64 _________________ -1.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.1 ____ -1.3 _ -0.6 _ -0.4 ___ +0.3 _+2.2 _+0.7
------------------------------------
Persistence (Oct 2023)_____+2.3 _+2.6 _+4.4 ___+3.1 _+1.0 _+0.4 ____+1.4 _+4.5 _+0.7
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Dec 26-27 for first significant snowfall, could be small amounts before it. Won't break a daily record falling on same date as 1947 storm but could be 10-15 in.
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TOTBALAAUYSTFW
(there ought to be a law against acronyms unless you show the full wording)
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Nov 28 looks like next opportunity? Table now set for Nov 28 anyway. I can't even get to 32F as a high here.
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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:
Historical:
1641 - An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here . (David Ludlum)
Any indication of whether date (Nov 22) was O.S. or converted to N.S.? I wanted to check against lunar dates but would need to know that detail (would be Dec 2, 1641 N.S. or if converted would have been observed on Nov 12, 1641 O.S.). Gregorian calendar was not used in British colonies or Britain until 1752. The "Daniel Defoe" 1703 event in south coast England was experienced as being on Nov 26-27 but would have been Dec 7-8 in Gregorian calendar, and it was at a new moon. (10 days difference to 1700, 11 days after 1700 was a leap year in Julian but not in Gregorian calendar). Britain finally joined the continent which had converted around 1582, in 1752, dropping 3rd to 13th of September from calendars. This was the one occasion on which the GFS 16-day verified /jk ...
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I would agree a warmer climate is partly responsible for the increase in rainfall since about 1971 (I would say July 1971 is where the trend really reversed), but note a few periods in the period 1901 to 1940 had a few wet years consecutively, such as 1902-03, 1919-20 and 1926-27, 1936-38. The dry climate period was most evident from about 1941 to 1970, and also first part of the 1880s decade was notably dry except for 1882.
The ten driest years for NYC since 1869 are (in order) 1965, 1964, 1910, 1935, 1963, 1970, 1885t1895, 1954, 1892. The next ten are 2001, 1883, 1931, 1949, 1956, 1881, 1957, 1880, 1943, 1950. After 2001, the next driest years in recent decades was 25th driest 1981 and 28th driest 2012.
The ten wettest years were 1983, 2011, 1972, 2018, 1989, 2007, 1975, 1990, 2006, 2021 -- all since 1972. The next ten show a bit of scatter -- 1903, 2003, 1889, 1913, 1973, 1984, 1971, 1996, 1927, 2005. That brings the post 1971 total to 16 of 20, and by 30th place it is 21 of 30.
So there may be other factors to consider as heavier rainfall and warmth were not well correlated in previous examples (1931, a very warm year, was quite dry, and so were 1949 and 1953; conversely, 1902-03 and 1926-27 were quite cool especially summers).
I would imagine Pacific influences can be found in any in-depth study but also, I recall that around 1971-72 there was an unusually deep eastern arctic vortex near Baffin Island, perhaps the first signs of large-scale changes underway in Canada's arctic climate which began to warm rapidly by the 1970s. As shown by 1883 and 1885 being dry years, a lot of arctic air flowing south inhibits rainfall in the northeastern U.S. (probably southeast and central U.S. rainfalls are higher). As shown by 1930s, severe heat and drought in central regions often fails to transfer to east coast although 1930, 1931, 1935 and 1939 were all relatively dry.
The period 1962 to 1965 was exceptionally dry (1962 was 21st driest and you can see top five status of 1963-65 above). These years all set records for sunshine hours at Toronto and were generally quite dry there also (1965 not as notably, storm track was quite active in 1965 in lower Great Lakes region). Oct 1963 and Feb 1964 were both records by wide margins. Toronto's climate record is different in that there has been an ongoing rainfall decrease from very wet peaks in mid 19th century, only recently has this trend reversed a bit. The ten wettest years at Toronto are 1843, 1878, 1870, 1842, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1855, 1841, 1986 but as four of those are pre-NYC (1869-) the overlapping ten are 1878, 1870, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1986, 1945, 2008, 1869, 1893. (another three pre-1869 years intervene before 1893 as well, 1852, 1857 11th-12th and 1859 is 15th). Toronto's ten driest years are 1933, 1963, 1874, 1949, 1934, 1882, 2016, 1872, 1988, 1938. The dust bowl influence was stronger and 1965 ranks 66th wettest of 183 years, 1964 was 71st driest. The signals are not always opposite but correlations are low and probably a bit on the negative side even for these relatively close locations, I would guess there is a strong negative correlation in annual precip between say NYC and GRB or STL.
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Guilty as charged, I wasn't intending to be overly critical just analytical, and I certainly do tend to go too high on snowfall in your region (irony alert noted), but it's interesting that I actually went lower than outcome in 2015-16, the only time I managed to finish in top half of contest, I was near middle of pack in one or two others but I am usually way too high and it's not from any "what the heck it's just for fun" attitude but I make a genuine error in forecast. If I ever foresaw low numbers I would predict low numbers, same goes for first freeze contest, I just predict what I believe will happen, not what I hope, partly because I don't have any strong reason to hope for any particular outcomes.
This winter a quick look at forecasts so far would suggest I am not far from consensus so that could be a good sign, as it was true of all three of the best winters above. Perhaps half of the low forecasts are yet to be revealed however.
I notice that in the contest years I looked at, the range of forecasts was almost the same in each contest (last winter generally a bit lower), and forecasts varied a lot less than the outcomes varied. It would be interesting to see who (if anybody) had a consistent better than consensus variability, in other words, who was consistently up in heavy snow winters and down in low ones. I would imagine there are a few showing skill, I do better at this further north and always have trouble processing how difficult it can be to get all factors to converge for snow south of 40N.
Anyway, the averages for the recent seven winters (after the two really good ones) are a lot lower than climatology and if you predicted those seven-year values you would have done better than most, in fact those seven-year averages would almost have won in 2020-2021.
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I am relatively optimistic for your chances too. All signs point to a strong ridge near the west coast and frequent outbreaks of very cold air from north-central Canada. Offshore water temperatures are high and seem likely to stay warm as Labrador current is unusually weak. This does play into the all or nothing paradigm in case this Atlantic warmth forces a high amplitude upper pattern and ideal snow production runs further inland, but I get the feeling the cold air will be battling with the warm ocean in the region between DC and the gulf stream; this sets up the question of whether storms will tuck near coast or progress faster east; in the faster option a series of 2-5 inch falls could be expected, which is still an improvement over most of the winters recently. I would say a good chance of at least one larger snowfall event and that to occur in February. I have entered predictions for snowfall in contest and I believe they are a bit lower than yours but only by a few inches. So I hope your optimism is rewarded. I believe it could also be colder than 1991-2020 average by 1-3 F deg with Dec and Feb favored over Jan where there could be a reversal for a while.
Another factor worth keeping in mind is lunar declination is at its absolute max range of 29 deg (an 18.6-year cycle) that research associates with powerful storm development, blocking, and unusual upper air patterns. Since a normal upper air pattern is a killer for marginal regions to see snow, I like this variation. Year to year variability can also be high at this point in the lunar declination cycle; so the fact that last winter was so warm and snow free could be part one of a flip-flop that is typical of high dec winters, and it applies to seasons as well as year to year. This is why I think one out of three months could be a lot warmer, let's say mid-January could be milder without taking away snow potential from other intervals.
Two best chances for a big snowfall event appear to be around 27-29 Dec and 5-10 Feb.
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Wave is embedded near e PA w NJ but not a lot of dynamics in system, will possibly lead to rumbles of TRW- type, 55-60 air mass will be close to e LI as wave passes. Not likely to act like a squall line except later on over open water late tonite.
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I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15.
In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles.
The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the nine and also last seven -year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (and I may regret it) ...
Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes
2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow
2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low
2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations
2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall
2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2
___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome
2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow
2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow
2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low
_________________________________________ almost all snow was on Jan 23: with only 0.3" at IAD before event,
_________________________________________ post-storm totals were listed as 30.0, 18.8, 29.8 (29.5 storm), 12.1
_________________________________________ so rest of winter was 5.1, 3.4, 4.5, 3.0 if storm values were not revised
2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result
_____________________________ _________________________________
averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location
past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7
===============
From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15.
Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings
(later edit _ irony alert noted)
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December 2023
in New York City Metro
Posted
I was going to post yesterday but got lost in a wilderness of forecast contests, Dec 1 1962 you can add to files:
1962 _ Canada's 50th annual football championship, the Grey Cup, was severely affected by dense fog and by the third quarter the game was halted; it was not possible to play until the next day; despite better conditions, no further scoring occurred. This occurred at the Exhibition Stadium in Toronto, known as the "mistake by the lake" ... several later Grey Cup games at the same location were subjected to heavy rain (1982) and strong winds (1965) on late Nov dates. Toronto built an indoor domed stadium in the 1990s. Vancouver and montreal also have domes but other locations sometimes used resemble Lambeau Field in Green Bay in Dec or early January. The severe fog episode in 1962 was caused by a stagnant high lasting almost a week.
You could also add this note, perhaps to other data for Dec 3rd:
1982 _ Toronto City hit 68.4 F on this date, a full 8F warmer than its previous Dec record of 61F (Dec 31, 1875). Toronto records go back to 1840. This record has not been surpassed since 1982. The month's average 2.3C was also a new (tied 1923) record (again tied 1998) but that shared record was broken four times after 1998, in 2006 (2.9C not a record, see 2001), 2001 at 3.2 C and most recently in 2015 at 5.2 C (and also in 2021 at 2.5 C but that did not beat 2015, 2001 or 2006). 2011, 2012 and 1984 round out the top ten. Dec is the only month to have nine of its top ten in the post-1980 era. February managed eight, 1954 and 1976 are its less recent two.