Roger Smith

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_8th ____ (7th) _____ +5.4 _+5.2 _+6.1 ___ +5.6_+14.1_+12.6 ___ +1.0 _--0.3 _--8.1

15th ___ (14th) _____ +3.4 _+2.6 _+4.6 ___ +1.0_ +8.4_ +5.7 ___ +0.1 _--2.8 _--9.0

22nd ___ (21st) _____ +3.2 _+2.1 _+3.1 ___--0.4_ +6.5_ +4.0 ___ --3.3 _--5.0 _--7.2

_8th ___ (p14th) ____ +2.0 _+2.0 _+3.0 ___ +2.3 _ +8.0 _+7.0 ___ --0.2 _--2.0 _--8.0

15th ___ (p21st) ____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+3.5 ___ +0.8 _ +6.0 _+4.5 ___ --1.5 _--4.5 _--7.0

_8th ___ (p24th) ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _+4.0 ___ --2.0 _--2.0 _--6.0

15th ___ (p28th) ____ +2.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ +0.2 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0

22nd___ (p28th) ____ +3.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ --0.3 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0

1st ___ (anoms) ____ +3.2 _+0.9 _+1.8 ___ --1.8 _ +6.6 _+3.3 ___ --4.5 _--5.6 _--6.7

_________________________________________________

8th _ DEN average obscures the change from near +20 to -20 anomalies during the interval. The coming week appears close to average in most places, staying very cold in SEA. The interval from 15th to 24th from GFS was estimated to be near normal in east, +3 southeast, staying below normal in west although with some moderation of current extreme cold values. 

15th _ Forecasts were fairly accurate given the large anomalies in play (average error 1.0). The trend for the coming week is fairly similar to established anomalies and the estimate beyond that to 28th maintains a similar trend. Will probably post some provisional scoring soon just for something to look at. SEA has been running record cold and PHX is starting to trend in that direction now as well. 

22nd _ Forecasts for this past week have done quite well, the average error is only 0.65 deg which is good for such large anomalies. The west has been much below normal and will moderate slowly this coming week (after a cold weekend). The east remains in the frontal zone with weak warmings interspersed with unexceptional cold spells. I have boosted DCA and dropped ORD from earlier provisionals, other seven are unchanged. Scores will be adjusted. 

1st March _ Anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Some places in the west have had their coldest February on record (including where I live) and the coldest winter month since January, 1979. 

Will this turn over to snow in WI and u.p. MI by Thursday? Low continues to deepen and cold air wraps around it. Looks like heavy LES potential for sw MI on Thursday night into Friday. 

Snowfall contest 2018-2019

... updates through Mar 6th ... further updates only in March contest thread.

... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall.

Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease)

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5__26.5___41.5 __29.4 _113.2___32.1 __20.2 __89.1 

RodneyS ________________4.4 __ 4.5*_ 11.0*___0.5 _ 14.1 __24.2 ___ 20.4 __15.7__16.1 ___ 110.8 (1)

Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 18.5 __ 11.0 __ 6.1*_ 23.2 ___28.4 __10.2 __11.1 ___ 117.0 (2)

Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 12.8 _ 27.0 ___ 8.0 _ 17.6 __26.2 ___ 4.9* __ 9.5 __ 7.9 ___ 118.5 (3)

hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 35.5 ___ 5.5 _ 18.8 __11.7 ___ 18.9 __14.5 __ 1.1 ___ 130.5 (4)

wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 33.2 ____2.6 _ 16.5 __14.8 ___ 35.5 __13.5 __ 1.2 ___ 143.3 (5)

___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 34.4 ___ 4.0 _ 15.3 _ 20.6 ___ 26.4 _ 13.8 __ 0.3*___ 145.8 ((6))

DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 31.0 ___ 7.0 _ 24.1 __ 3.2*__ 19.9 __16.7 __ 3.9 ___ 150.8 (6)

dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 40.5 ___ 1.5*__8.3 _ 28.2 ___24.9 __15.2 __ 0.9 ___ 159.0 (7)

wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 25.5 ___ 7.5 _ 21.6 _ 30.2 ___24.9 __ 7.2 __12.1 ___ 163.5 (8)

Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 39.1 __ 11.9 _ 12.2 _ 18.0 ___30.2 __18.3 __ 0.5*___ 175.4 (9)

BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 44.5 ___ 6.5 __ 9.6 _ 35.2 ___ 27.9 __ 2.2*_11.1 ___ 178.5 (10)

RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 43.5 __ 11.5 __ 8.6 _ 13.2 __ 32.9 __14.2 _ 10.9 ___ 184.3 (11)

Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 48.5__ 28.5_ 50.6__ 6.8___ 42.9 __10.2 __4.1 ___ 221.3 (12)

_____________________________________________________________________________

these are now placed in rank order.

* current low departure _ 2 for RodneyS and Roger Smith, one each for Stebo, BKViking, dmillz25, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland1.  

ranks at this point are correlated with lower forecasts that are approaching 100% with a lot of time left to accumulate errors.

Third to seventh are probably in the best position, although Stebo (3rd now) can handle more snow at BTV and can trade that against a potential higher error at ORD after 10-15" more could easily fall there. It does not appear as though anyone can gain from further snow at NYC or BOS, or likely DEN as totals are very low at all of those locations. However, DEN can get heavy falls in March and April so with lowest forecast Stebo could perhaps see some losses to his margin if another 25-30 inches were to fall there. 

============================================

Actual forecasts >>>

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

Snowfall to date ________  16.9__20.5 __26.5 ___41.5__29.4 _113.2___32.1__20.2 __89.1 

RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

Yeah, as long as the half time is not the two minute warning instead. 

Various charts that I produced including "snow needed" are now updated back in the thread (on page 5), small type added to more recent post is not updated. What I saw for new snowfall on Feb 1st was 1.1" BWI, 0.9" DCA and IAD, and 0.5" SBY. Only trace amounts at RIC and LYH.

This is my version of the top ten, to be confirmed of course. I have added two columns to show total needed vs errors already accumulating (the contest standings would be the sum of these as both are "errors" although one is a good kind and one not so good, until you get to the end of the season, then it reverses).

SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED -- post edited on Feb 11th to show small additions Feb 10th

(entries in brackets = amounts now in excess of season to date)

Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep ___ needed ___ errors accumulating

Snow to date __ 1 Feb _____ 11.1 __ 14.0 __ 20.2 __ 13.0

MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ 6.7 ___ 0.2 _____ (0.6) ___(5.2) _____ 12.7 _______ 6.9" ______ 5.8"

RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 9.2 ___(0.1) ____ 3.4 ____ 0.3 ______ 13.0 _______12.9" ______ 0.1"

Weather53 _________21 _____  10.1 ___ 2.5 ____ 1.9 ____ 1.7 ______ 16.2 _______ 16.2" ______ 0.0"

supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 8.9 ___ (3.0) ___(1.2)___ (4.0) _____ 17.1 ________ 8.9" ______ 8.2"

biodhokie __________ 8 ______ 10.2 ___ 3.8 ____ (2.1) ___ 1.5 ______ 17.6 _______ 15.5" ______ 2.1"

leesburg 04 _________1 ______ 10.9 ___(2.0)____ 2.8 ____(2.0) _____ 17.7 _______ 11.7" ______ 4.0"

Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 8.3 ___ 3.3 ____ 3.3 ____(3.2) _____ 18.1 _______ 14.9" ______ 3.2"

Stormpc ___________26 _______ 8.8 ___ 2.7 ____ 4.4 ____ 4.2 ______ 20.1 _______20.1" ______ 0.0"

EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _______(0.2) __ (7.5) ___ (9.1) __ (4.3) _____ 21.1 _______ 0.0" ______21.1"

Bristow Wx _________ 1 _______ 2.7 ___ (7.3) ___ (7.6) __ (4.3) _____ 21.9 _______ 2.7" ______ 19.2"

(then with reference to the full table back on page 5, the only other forecaster who has any accumulating errors other than at RIC is George BM, otherwise the total departures are all "snow needed" for the other 49 forecasters in the list with the exception of five who are already accumulating errors if it snows again at RIC.)

====================================================

(edited to remove amounts from Feb 10) This is the "one more storm club" ... standings that would occur after an 11.2" snowfall at IAD, 9.5" BWI, 7.8" DCA and 4" at RIC ... just a hypothetical but it would be mostly forecasters in the middle of the pack.  

1. North Arlington 101 ____ 7.9" (incl 1.0" accum error at IAD)

2. wxwatch007 _________ 10.7" (no accum errors)

t3. cae and Millville wx ___ 11.4" (several accum errors each) ... they would be near the lead with a smaller event

5. Prince Frederick wx ____11.7" (same as above)

6. stormPC _____________ 12.8" (same as above)

__________________________________________________

I derived those from changing the actual snow in my excel file to those additional amounts. A smaller storm (8, 6, 4 and 2 inches) would leave storm PC in the lead with Prince Frederick wx just 1.1" behind ... adding 0.6" to those totals at either IAD or RIC moves Prince Frederick wx into the lead. So those are the kinds of events you chasers need, some of the rest of us need perhaps two of those events to get into the hunt. 

Table of departures -- as percentages of actual snowfall to date

_ to May 2nd _ this table was same as earlier contest table which has been placed in rank order, so has now been changed to this new format

_ this is an alternate scoring system, the first table above is the official contest scoring table.

Numbers represent differences of forecast and actual as % of actual. For example, if a station had 200" snow then a forecast of 180" would read -10 and a forecast of  220" would read +10.

The absolute values of these differentials is then averaged to establish rankings. Red numbers can increase in absolute value, black numbers can decrease.

(To calculate what percentage of actual snow your forecast is, simply add 100 to the number. For example, -10 means 90%, 2 means 102% of actual snowfall). All numbers can only decrease over time but the absolute value of red numbers can only increase.

FORECASTER _______APN.ORD.CLE.CMH.DTW.FWA.GRR.GRB.IND.LSE.YXU. SDF.MQT.MKE.MSP. MLI..PAH.PIA. STL. YYZ ___ AVG _ rank

slowpoke ____________-28 _-15_62 _ 6_ 21 _ 21 _-16_ -34 _ 29 _-35 _ 94 __ 7 _-17 _-16 _ -39 _-34 _ 97_-20 __-9 _-13 ___ 29.2 __ 1

cyclone77 ____________ -9 _-11_68 _ 6 _ 31 __5 _-10_ -36 _ 24_ -35_ 129_ -20 _-23 _-23 _-39 _-24_ 80 _-15 _ -1 _-26 ___ 29.7 __ 2

DAFF _______________-25 _-25_ 42_ -5 _25 _ 21 _-10_ -31 __ 3 _-30 _ 91 __ 7 _-24 _-27 _-38 _-38 _130_-20 _-30 _-33 ___ 30.2 __ 3

Roger Smith __________-9_-29 _127 _-1 _ 44 _ 21 _11 _ -5 _ 39 _-14_156 __-6 _-12_ -19 _-14 _-36 _ 97 _-18 _-40 __0 ___ 32.0 __ 4

___ Contest normal ___-19 _ -23_ 91__4 _ 43 _ 38 _-5 _-27 _ 34 _-28 _123 _ 24 _-12 _-12 _-34 _-45 _ 51_ -32 _-24 _-23 ___ 32.2 _ (4)

Mississauga Snow ______-3_-21 _16 _-20_ 60 _ 26 _-14_-39 _-12 _-46 _135 _ -2 _-12_ -39_ -29 _-34_146 _-29 _ 24 _-15 ___ 34.0 __ 5

madwx ______________-15 _-8 _ 88 _ 0 _ 66 _ 46 _ -8 _-33 _ 35 _ -36 _ 91 _ 27 _-20_ -25 _-38_-33 _ 87 _-28 _ -33 _ -7 ___ 35.3 __ 6

___ Contest median ___ -23 _-15_ 88 _ 0 _ 44 _ 34 _-8 _-34 _ 35 _-37 _106 _ 25 _ -17 _-23 _-37 _-36 _146_-20__ -9 _-11 ___35.9 _ (7)

vpbob21 ____________-23 _-11 _ 41 _ 27 _ 38 _ 34_-19_-36 _ 62 _-40 _106 _120 __-5 _-20 _-31 _-26 _177 _ 0 _ 10 _ -6 ___ 40.5 __ 7

Stebo ______________-35 _-29_136_-20_ 53 _ 50 _ -5 _-39 _ 29 _ -46 _ 76 _ 61 _ -19 _-29 _-55 _-49 _195 _-45_-17_ -9 ___ 46.9 __ 8

Jackstraw ___________-28 _-39_159 _ -1 _31 _ 46_ -8_ -34 _ 60 _-52 _ 88 _ 25 __ -7 _ -38 _-61_ -44 _261 _-45 _-34_-17___ 49.8 __ 9

dmc76 _____________ -23 _-7 _134 _42 _ 87_ 94 __ 1 _-25_ 48 _-37 _207 _ 58 _ -17 _-4 _ -38 _ -56 _244 _-40 __ 3 _15 ___58.2__10

DonSutherland.1 ______-18 _ 1 _138 _64 _ 81_ 68 __1 _-34_120_-41 _222 _105 _ -36 _-16_ -48 _ -47 _203 _ -4 __ 4 _-11___63.1 __11

___________________________________________________________

... ranks of contest normal and median do not change ranks of forecasters in contest, and they are independent of each other's rank. 

... confirmed best forecasts are in bold type. 



Table of forecasts February 2019

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith _______________ +3.5 _+3.5 _+3.0 __+2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _--3.5

Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ +1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___--1.8 _--1.8 _--1.7

wxallannj __________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _+2.1 _+1.5 ___+0.2 _+0.7 _+1.0

RodneyS __________________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __+0.3 _+2.4 _+2.7 ___--0.3_+0.3 _--1.3

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.2 _--0.2 _--0.3 __--1.7 _+1.5 _+0.6 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--3.7

Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

___ Consensus _____________ +1.0 _+0.7 _+0.3 __--1.0 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--0.3 _+0.3 _--1.0

BKViking __________________ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.0 __--1.0 _+0.6 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+1.5 _+0.7

wxdude64 _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.3 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--1.4 _+0.8 _+1.9

hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.2 _+0.7 _+0.1 __--0.3 _+1.8 _+0.5 ___--0.3 _+0.1 _--1.1

___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom ______________________--0.5 _--0.5 _--0.6 __--1.1 _--0.4 _+0.1 ___+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.5

RJay _____ (-3%) __________ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __--1.0 _--1.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0

Final scoring for January 2019

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ all nine TOTAL

hudsonvalley21 ____________94 _ 88 _ 70 __ 252 __ 20 _ 56 _ 92 __ 168 __ 420 __ 98 _ 98 _ 60 __ 256 _____676

wxallannj _________________80 _ 62 _ 90 __ 232 __ 00 _ 96 _ 94 __190 __ 422 __ 98 _ 86 _ 66 __ 250 _____ 672

Roger Smith _____________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266 __ 04 _ 42 _ 84 __ 130 __ 396 __ 96 _ 82 _ 76__ 254 _____ 650

DonSutherland.1 ___________92 _ 94 _ 52 __ 238 __ 00 _ 76 _ 88 __ 164 __ 402 __ 86 _ 82_ 78__ 246 _____ 648

___ Consensus ___________100 _ 76 _ 80 __ 256 __ 14 _ 56 _ 92 __ 162 __ 418 __ 96 _ 86 _ 48 __ 230 _____ 648

wxdude64 ________________96 _ 76 _ 80 __ 252 __ 48 _ 40 _ 90 __ 178 __ 430 __ 98 _ 84 _ 32 __ 214 _____ 644

RJay ____________________ 84 _ 58 _ 96 __ 238 __ 14 _ 78 _ 86 __ 178 __ 416 __ 94 _ 98 _30 __ 222 _____ 638

Scotty Lightning ___________ 94 _ 78 _ 74 __ 246 __ 34 _ 78 _ 76 __ 188 __ 434 __ 74 _ 82_ 40 __ 196 _____ 630

___ Normal _______________76 _ 98 _ 64 __ 238 __ 44_ 48 _ 94 __ 186 __ 424 __ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 _____ 630

BKViking _________________ 92 _ 86 _ 76 __ 254 __ 24 _ 44 _ 74 __ 142 __ 396 __ 96 _ 88 _ 34 __ 218 _____ 614

Tom _____________________46 _ 80 _ 40__ 166 __ 94 _ 00 _ 96 __ 190 __ 356 __ 76 _ 86 _ 62 __ 224 _____ 580

Stebo ___________________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266__ 10 _ 38 _ 70 __ 118 __ 384 __ 88 _ 82 _ 10 __ 180 _____ 564

RodneyS _________________ 60 _ 28 _ 80 __ 168 __ 00 _ 84 _ 62 __ 146 __ 314 __ 88 _ 78 _ 48 __ 214 _____ 528

_______________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecasts  ... DCA, IAH, PHX and DEN have high scores near middle of pack. 

NYC was cold enough at -0.1 to make DonS the winner with second coldest forecast (Normal also gets a win) and Tom takes a loss with coldest forecast and a lower score. 

BOS was the other way round, second warmest forecast of RJay (+2.0) wins and RodneyS takes the loss. 

ATL has the same result, except that it's wxallannj (+2.4) with the win and RodneyS a bit too warm there also.

ORD ended so cold (-2.8) that Tom is a winner at -2.5, and his score will freeze your scores too (no mercy rule if anyone's raw score is 60+). With the anomaly at +3.3 on the 24th, Tom's -2.5 was looking like a real outlier until this mega-cold-wave showed up (ORD anomalies have been dropping about 1.0 per day, unheard of at end of the month). 

SEA was locked into a finishing value between Don's highest forecast (+4.1) and Roger's second highest (+1.8), so +3.0 (or higher) made it a win for Don.

So ... five locations qualify, three where a win-loss situation developed and two with an outright winner. 

STANDINGS

DonSutherland1 ______ 2-0

Tom ________________1-1

RJay ________________1-0

wxallannj ____________1-0

Normal ______________1-0

RodneyS ____________ 0-2

______________________________________________________________________________

IND finished with 11.7" in January, Jackstraw at 12.0" wins this tiebreaker. 

We just passed 600" total and are very close now to 60% of contest normal snow. 

Ranks of total departures are now shown, the table will be placed in order when it gets closer to the final countdown. 

+3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --3.5

It hasn't snowed at all in Seattle WA. That is rather unusual, they don't get a lot of snow but usually one or two events and 5 to 15 inches is common for a winter season. But they are sitting at 0.0" ... Boston MA has had all of 1.9" so far, at Logan anyway, other parts of the city may have had 5 to 10 inches. That map looked fairly accurate to me away from the mountains anyway, in our snowfall contest, snow has been above normal in most places southwest of Chicago and below normal north and east of there so far, although Toronto just got hit with enough to bring them back to at least normal pace, probably above. Buffalo has had a lot of snow recently. 

Then why do studies show that magnitude of urban heat island is inversely proportional to wind speed? Last night illustrated that. My belief is, if the urban stations went calm, the differential would stay large. Maybe it's a trade-off, a calm wind at this point would encourage radiational cooling within the urban heat island, but at the same time, no frigid rural air could flow in (as was the case last night). 

ORD could use a 10 to 15 mph wind to negate the urban heat island. This is why they are going flat-line. I'm only going by what I see on maps but ORD is nowhere near the urban-rural boundary and MLI is probably an essentially rural site. Even so, ORD will probably drop about five degrees later on, urban heat islands still radiate heat to space, they just don't do it as efficiently as non-urban settings. 

I will update my charts tonight after seeing today's totals, meanwhile looking at guidance, can see potential for a bit more in the next few days, would be lucky to get 2" though.

Most of us are going to need something to change in this two weeks or appear on the maps in mid to late February. 

Charts now updated (scroll back to page five, the chart in small type in a recent post was not updated). Matches the top ten as shown, except that 0.1" more fell at IAD. 

Coldest reading in Canada at 09z was again Key Lake SK -46.6 C (-52 F). Coldest in Manitoba is Norway House at north end of Lake Winnipeg, -44 C (-47 F). 

Lighter winds now around Winnipeg and unlike earlier in the 25 mph northerly, an urban heat island effect is noticeable. -39 C at YWG essentially rural on western edge, -34 C downtown. That's -38 and -29 in F. 

Reporting this because that high will be over Iowa tomorrow night so that similar differentials may apply around Chicago and other nearby cities. The -52 F reading is slightly to the west of the high center as analyzed. 

I recall the 1994 cold spell, we got it full blast in Ontario too, had an overnight reading of -40. Similar cold in Jan 1976 around 22nd-23rd. 

For southern Ontario, however, nothing matches the Feb 8-9 1934 cold (-46 in Bancroft) and Lake Ontario froze over completely, the only time in the 20th century that happened. Lake Superior ice is rapidly advancing from shorelines according to latest ice maps and some coverage now in sheltered parts of northern Lakes Michigan and Huron. 

Key Lake SK near center of the high already down to -51 F. Winnipeg, a city almost as large as MSP, has no urban heat effect at all, -38 at similar times at downtown and airport weather stations and for that matter, 50 miles out into the bald prairie. 

As to ORD record setting, this morning's eventual low will overcome urban heating also due to the wind, Thursday morning? Not as breezy, but colder setup. I foresee very similar readings the two mornings. Think the daytime high will recover to -10 anyway so that the midnight high won't be quite as harsh an outcome. Thursday max around -5, temps may rise after midnight into Friday. 

About 100" of snow was added to the contest grid by the recent storm. A fourth location, ORD, has now passed at least one forecaster (MLI, PIA and STL have passed quite a few, in fact MLI has passed all but cyclone77 who has 0.6" left before he gets passed as well (but will have best result for MLI with any new snow). Cyclone77 is the only forecaster left without any red numbers, or stations with more snow than forecast. 

The order of total departures is still fairly similar to the reverse order of the total snowfall forecasts, only Stebo and jackstraw have moved even one position down in relative terms by having larger total departures than one or more forecasters with higher seasonal totals. Most of us have plenty left to use up at lake effect locations GRR, CLE and YXU. The lake effect portion of the total snowfall at those places is fairly small so far, so they are not running much ahead of the pack. We are probably right around where a normal season would be, 55% of total snowfall by the end of January seems about average. 

When we reach March 15th or so, and the season is approaching a conclusion, I will reorder the table above but for now it's almost in order from bottom to top as far as the contest goes. 

Some links that may assist you:

https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_100.gif

(Canadian snow depths, updated daily)

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http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

(contest web site, many snow map links, be sure to look on both the linked page and the "weblog" page as shown 

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Also, you can find info on Midwest snowfalls in the Great Lakes / OH Valley subforum snowfall contest, including frequent updates on snowfall to date as percentage of normal

The cold air is on the move south, Ennadai Lake which is in the territories north of the SK-MB border about 62 deg N, -38 with 30 mph north winds. This is roughly the slug of cold air coming down although I think the eventual end product is a blend of that air mass and some side drainage from the lobe in northern Ontario that has been sitting between -25 daytime and -50 nights recently. Bare ground may get a slight coverage as troughs move down behind the cold front, the bare ground may temporarily cause enhanced thermal gradients that will focus the light snowfalls. So although an inch of snow isn't ideal for radiational cooling, better than low albedo for daytime temperatures mainly. My guess is that a -40 reading is possible over some of the fresh snow in Wisconsin but I don't know which stations have the better cold air drainage setups, would say around AUW to RHI somewhere. 

Temp/dp of -53/-62 F at Geraldton ON north of Lake Superior this morning (13z obs). 

I do think temperatures will rise to around 32 F along and south of the track but mostly snow, weakly defined warm sector will be mostly just absence of frigid arctic air briefly, and so temps will rise very gradually all night, peak around 32-34 in those areas, and fall off sharply to 10 F within 2 hours of fropa. That looks to be around noon at IL-IN border. At RFD and ORD I would not be surprised if temps bust well on low side of whatever is the official forecast just because of the gradient. Will say 18-24 F range, and s WI staying mostly single digits except for a bit of warmth carried inland with lake enhancement (15 F). 

That squall line type cold front will be headed for places like PIA and CMI into central IN ... have seen many storms like this because it was very common in the 1970s when I was actually working in a forecast office, and drawing maps (and progs) -- this is why I felt strongly it would go south. They almost always bust south when they fall off the "chinook ledge" as I call it (around where it is now, too far from Rockies to sustain the chinook, warm sector turns to dust). When this gets past Iowa, it will just be all snow, any lingering rain will vanish. 

NW wind gusting to 53 knots at Minot ND at23z, temp has now dropped 24 deg in half an hour there (37 to 13 F). 

S+ reported at Fargo ND with southeast winds gusting to 30 mph. Temp 1 F. 

Minot is 40 deg F with a west wind, low center appears to be crossing border now near southeast corner of SK. 

Looks to be dropping south faster than gaining east, until passing Watertown SD, then curves past MLI towards a point 50 miles south of RFD then east-north-east to JXN. If it can maintain this very tight temperature gradient into the heavy snow production zone, a raging blizzard will develop in northeast IA, southern MN into n IL and most of WI. I do see a weakening trend overall past Lake Michigan but still some potent lake enhanced totals in parts of southern MI. This curved track exposes Chicago to NNE winds for a time which may up your totals. Thinking about 8" RFD, 10" ORD, 15" MSN to MKE with 20" local maxima, trending to 12" GRB. Cold fronts have been active through Alberta and SK with reports of wind gusts to 55 mph in Alberta last night. It may maintain some of those dynamics although wind gusts near Rockies can be downslope pass drainage effects in some cases, but I saw some strong gusts as far east as Swift Current SK last night too, that's well away from any topography. This would apply to regions south of main snowfall band and track of low, but even there I feel that 1-2" quite possible in bursts of heavy snow. Warm advection will be weak once the chinook signature is extinguished. 

The yolk's on you then ... you'll miss the next 2-4" overperformer.