wxsniss

Entering 96 hour timeframe on globals for 18z Monday. Nashville looking good, Fella. GFS / CMC decent, Euro could be better. Steady as she goes.

AFD: "Monday, eclipse day, looks like a typical August day. It will be 
hot and humid. The morning may begin with total sunshine, then as 
afternoon arrives, we will likely see some diurnal cumulus clouds 
form as patches of thin cirrus move overhead. The best news is 
that pops look very low with a prevailing upper level ridge. The 
updated forecast will show 20 pops across the south half and less 
than 15 percent over the north. Overall, we are optimistic about 
seeing the eclipse, but it will probably not be perfect, and 
viewers may have to deal with some annoying patchy clouds. "

I'm hoping we can dry this out a little more.

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What time is your BOS departure?  I get in a bit past 4 with a short connection in Detroit. 

3:33-->5:20pm Jetblue, direct flight

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We should think of a rendezvous point.  I'm staying not far from BNA.  I was thinking of driving to the Vanderbilt area for dinner Sunday evening -nice neighborhood and walkable.

I have to check with my brother. It's his first time in Nashville and he had ambitious hopes to enjoy the music scene / honky-tonk bars / Opryland etc Sunday night. If we do meet up, the Vanderbilt area would be perfect. My flight from Logan gets in around 5:30pm.

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'm on my own.  My wife decided to wait until 2024.  Of course she's 12 years younger than me with better odds..lol.

i decided to wait until Tuesday to return fearing difficulties getting to BNA Monday night.  I also want to relax and celebrate in Nashville which I really like.  

Im going to try to get to Gallatin by 9AM-maybe sooner and have breakfast there. 

We should meet at the venue!

We should! To clarify, I'm staying at a "random motel in the city" meaning in downtown Nashville. So plan to drive up to Gallatin Monday morning depending on traffic. Will have to make contingency plans based on clouds / traffic.

Yeah Euro / CMC / GFS have held decent. At least no large scale synoptic system to mess it up, with a decent southeast ridge and high pressure.

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Are you solo?   Gallatin looks a good spot with 45 seconds more totality va Nashville.

With my brother. I gather you will be with family?

On your recommendation a while back, I reserved 2 tix to the Gallatin event. We are staying in some random motel in the city Sunday night, then plan to stage early Monday morning.

But I'm a little nervous about making return flights at 5pm. Normal drive from Gallatin to BNA ~45 min, so figure we will have 2 hours heading back at 2pm. Traffic warnings sounds apocalyptic. I read that a group of 300 Japanese tourists made reservations to Gallatin a year ago, so extrapolate from that.

Was also unclear to me how we get to the soccer fields that are the "main viewing area", and how that relates to the concerts etc... my preference is minimal light pollution and minimal obstruction of the horizons, which an open field (or elevated point) could achieve. But even if traffic and parking is a complete disaster, looks like plenty of options to improvise:

That Sperling's Eight Second Law is a good read, thanks for that!

I think my only photography, at most, will be 10 min video capturing before / during / after just to document that I was there. So I don't have to pay attention to the camera, but it will record. Heading to Nashville, TN. Not sure yet where to stage. My biggest concern is light pollution from photovoltaic streetlights or businesses going on automatically. 

wxeyeNH... any other tips to maximize the experience?

Urban rooftop vs. open field?

Video vs. still shots (of surroundings, again, I don't think my own photos of the eclipse will be worthwhile)?

Anything else you would recommend? Thanks for sharing!

Hey guys, I'm Nashville TN bound, bought tix weeks ago worried they would sell out.

If I had my choice, I'd go to Idaho or Wyoming for best chances of clear sky and scenery.

Will make an audible on where to set base in Nashville area. The good thing is even if traffic / infrastructure is totally shut down, anywhere in Nashville including airport will be in totality.

Booked to Nashville. Staying in a motel just east of the city (~ 2 min totality), and figure I'll either see it from the motel (if traffic is horrendous) or drive several hours before and wait north of the city (~2:40 totality).

Potentially once-in-a-lifetime bucket list item. And when will this happen again in such easy travel... 1:30pm in the afternoon... in August...

Jerry I'm happy to hear you're doing this. Hope we get clear skies. People describe this as pretty divine.

Anyone have tips on how to experience it? I'm thinking tips like positioning away from street-lights that might go on automatically.

What to capture? Photos? Movie of the entire thing?

coastal front enhancement with band over North shore oriented NE-SW

When does it stop the error?   We appear to be about to see a split with one deform band to the west, another near the coast and then some OES. 

Too many chefs in the kitchen with this storm... and the models struggling to figure out which chef is the head.

Any posters in Clinton CT cashing in on that?

what an epic fail for the Euro, especially for western folks

It's go-time and the Euro jumped almost 100 miles east in farthest QPF extent in 1 cycle

Stall is nowhere near what it was on 12z Euro.

Not only is SLP further east, the rapidity of exit is greater:

It's like 30 miles east at 18z Tuesday, then by 0z Wednesday it really starts to move away about 60 miles northeast.

Also, the spoiler low starts off southeast of the low we had on the 12z Euro, but eventually is much further northeast.

Upsetting for lots of folks I'm sure.

For eastern MA, hope we do well on a deformation band which now seems to be ours.

Talk about a coup for James way out there on the Cape

Starting to look like Boston metro does well because it's in the deformation band

The real blow comes between 6z and 12z... the dual low structure collapses on the east-most low, whereas at 12z it collapsed in the west-most low. And as Messenger discussed, less of a capture, the east-most low scoots out faster once it takes over.

Tug of war between the west and east stretch out lows, east low wins and a big jump east between 6z-12z

BTW 12z Euro had the same feature along the boundary...it just collapsed hardest and fastest to a position under ack. That can should flip hard east or SE S in the next few hours if those west tucks are valid.  If we see it staying E or ENE or NE....we very clearly know the low is staying further east.

Exactly, between 6z-9z is the difference. Euro quickly consolidates it into the main low near the benchmark, RGEM keeps the spoiler going through at least 12z.

Wish we had more rich pressure data. But as you said, we should see how this translates into the moisture feeding in over the next few hours.

Taking a quick break for pictures... will be back for Euro.

This sticks out to me  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008

 

I do think this lends some credibility to at least a temporarily extension.

990.5mb... pretty close to Euro and RGEM probably.

Great point about buoys, too bad this data is so sparse.

GFS hints at it, but then collapses everything back again.  UKMET hints at it, collapses back too on the western edge. NAM never really bites at all.

 

Looking at the WV though...I do think wxniss we'll see a pulse down center to west for at least a few hours, as we wait for the rest of the energy to dive and for it all to stack.   We'll see what the radar shows in central/wMA,   CT, LI and sw in the next hour.

Nowcasting at its best, with relatively big stakes on the line.

Over next 2 hours, will be watching SLP, pressure fall rates, strength of the western CT / Long Island band and backfill of echos into NYC/NJ. And of course let's hope Euro can keep some respectable continuity right at showtime.

Yeah by 9z, the 0zRGEM has a 984mb 2nd low way out at 67W. Euro has nothing like that.

Spoils the party (the RGEM depiction), and I'm hoping it's wrong.

You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it.

Clear on water vapor, but so far doesn't seem to have translated to an elongated or dual surface low:

Biggest Euro vs. RGEM difference in this regard occurs between 6z-9z when RGEM really develops a 2nd low way out, like 67W, whereas Euro collapses everything into one consolidated low. So as you and others have said, the evolution now to 4am will be critical.

This is a theme I've been beating since Saturday... RGEM has an intense piece of vorticity far northeast of any other model, approximately near the Cape. At times in the past 2 days, this has resulted in a dual-low system (and GGEM did this too on Saturday). And I think it's now contributing to this further and faster northeast scoot.

May be totally wrong, but don't have access to Euro H5 to get a better sense of the responsible mechanics. 

The other mechanism that I keep beating: it's not just an eastward tick of a single SLP placement, I think it's also a northeast-stretch / dual-low-ish structure that is robbing some of the feed that would otherwise get pivoted west.

This actually may be the biggest fly in the ointment that the RGEM presents to the historic potential... and it's not on the EURO. Big difference. Something to watch for.

Just getting out of work, will try to do some intense verification analysis of handling of vorticity lobes, SLP placement, and radar.

To summarize guidance outcomes, correct me if I missed something:

12z Euro + 12z NAM: both have 2 maxima, over western CT + eastern MA, with Euro being much further southwest into NYC

12z/18z RGEM: further east, with 18z basically putting deformation band over eastern MA

RAP/HRRR: ?

Not gonna even look at GFS, it dropped a turd before Feb 2013 too.

One thing at first glance on 18z RGEM vs. others... that intense lobe of vorticity much further north than anything depicted on RAP for 0z, and also not on Euro or NAM for 0z:

This may be the best run for Boston metro / eastern MA we've seen so far

Multiple spots Boston - Naraganaset - Plymouth aiming for 30+

One maxima western/central CT

Second maxima South Shore down to Naragansset Bay to Plymouth

Messenger hour 24 holy ****, MUCH better for southeast / eastern MA

not sure what people in other forums are seeing

definite tick northeast on this run thru 24h