wxsniss

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT is adamant that Euro, RGEM and UK all trended east at 00z lol

It's not even ambiguous, RGEM / UK / Euro all trended west at 0z

I did think 0z GFS ticked southeast in SLP position / maybe it gave that appearance because timing was different, but I give that little weight relative to other guidance at this point

Solid consolidation of guidance tonight: 10-20" is well supported east of 495

0.5 to HFD / CT river

0.8 to ORH

1" to ~ 495

1.2 through BOS

1.8-2" PLY through Cape

Southeast MA gets crushed at 42 hrs... this looks very similar to 0z last night

12z 3/11 Euro run was officially a burp

Coming northwest... thru 30 hrs this looks more like last night's 0z than the awful 12z run earlier today

UK total qpf clear move west

~1" to ORH

~1.2-1.5" inside 495

1.5-2" southeast Mass into Cape

0z UK + RGEM best signs so far tonight that east trend has stopped

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My fear with this is the deformation misses east and it becomes a CJ....pinned along the shore from Boston to KPYM and I get like 6-8" over 12 hours.  Unsatisfying, yet enough for people to b@tch about me b@tching.

Ray what do you use to estimate deformation band location?

I know it's due to convergence of moisture + divergence at H7 and H5... but do you use RH at H7... divergence at H7/H5... frontogenesis... general northwest edge of qpf ...?

Looks southeast tick imo at both surface and H5... but we are saved by a piece of vorticity that circles around and extends qpf further west

Regardless weighing all current guidance confident in eastern SNE widespread 10"+

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I care to see is the Euro stop shifting east. NAM nudging east, but still showing a big hit doesn nothing to allay my fears.

Agree

We know how stubborn these trends can be once they are sniffed. I posted earlier about that southern energy being more dominant and overshooting southeast. We want to see that trend stop and reverse. Or greater deeper northern stream energy to shift the balance. It's a sensitive setup and there's room to come back too, but we need to see the aforementioned trends stop/reverse.

Still a big hit eastern SNE... but this suggests Euro was onto something... southern energy maintains dominance longer and keeps momentum east

Have toggled ad nauseum looking for the flaw to dismiss the Euro vs. RAPs at H5. Can't find an obvious flag.

There was lots of discussion about the northern stream and better sampling later tonight... perhaps a bigger culprit to watch is the southern stream energy, which imo is the biggest difference 18z GFS / 12z Euro compared to their prior bigger hit runs.

I also went back and trended past 5 RAP runs for H5 at 6z Monday, and you can see the energy over Tennessee trends subtly more robust, so there may be validity to the trend in the GFS/Euro. This more robust southern stream energy stays dominant longer, and delays the "subsume" process thereby dragging the system further east.

I think we want to see this trend reverse for the closer benchmark tracks that hit western areas hard too, and there is still time.

Obviously areas eastern/southeastern SNE have more buffer whether this ticks east or west, and the mid-level fronto will deliver if the qpf maps do not with the farther ots tracks, though verbatim the best lift on 18z GFS looks just offshore. 

The much stronger southern vort max is too dominant, inhibiting the "subsume" process Tip was discussing... the whole system will be a discombobulated mess more southeast this time

Blech screwy run with flags all over it

There's a turd shortwave you can see diving into Wyoming hour 36 that deflates the western ridge... something not seen on prior runs

Relatedly, the trough gets a tug west and had this disjointed look compared to the clean sharp dig of prior runs

Disjointed northern stream tries to salvage something late but it's a mess

Until any semblance of this in any other guidance, this is like picking one of those really gross chocolates out of the box

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well to be fair I didn’t comment but I had about 5 model windows open so couldn’t multi task fast enough...lol.  6+ for us the n the euro.

Yeah we could all use multi-monitor consoles instead of 15+ tabs open simultaneously on a phone.

I think we're in a great spot on this one, the 3rd of the Goldilocks storms.

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't disagree there ...  however, I really think the handling of the western ridge is pretty important in the fray of this whole thing.

As that feature you're noting finishes rounding the arc up there and starts descending in latitude ... if the ridge bulging in the backside (also keyed into the +PNA modularity/onset) is robust enough it will happen in tandem, and the impulse will start really carving more S as it cross the 50th parallel.  That would transitively mean a correction west ... and in fact, we may already be seeing the anatomy of that playing out, because one aspect I am in fact seeing across the models et al, is that around 48 hours from now, ...indeed the geopotential lines are pushed back west as that wave is coming down.  That feature coming down west in that situation would also be doing so as a stronger (upshot), but also, cause more cyclonic rotation between it and the S/stream impulse ...a key spatial relationship for phasing potential.

What goes up out west, punishes the E by forcing things down... that's the short metaphor.

So we'll see... But let's not forget that +PNAP result of the +PNA out west!

What's "PNAP"?

Agree, this is best illustrated toggling 12z/0z at hr 48: with a sharper ridge in the west, we get a further west track and sharper dive of northern stream... it also seems to be delaying the exit of the southern stream... everything is slightly less progressive, so net effect is a better interaction.

Feels like we have good buffer here in eastern SNE... pretty confident we get at least a moderate hit even with more or less stream interaction, and ensembles support a closer hit.

The northern stream energy is currently over Yukon/Northwest territories in Canada... I could be convinced better sampling will hone in the correct solution

Biggest changes imo were better digging of northern stream and delay of southern stream... looking at hr 48-60 you're almost expecting better stream interaction and a near phase but the flow is too fast

22 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Out to 60 and no commentary? Seems bad lol

Actually the opposite... several of us were doing pbp / commentary in wrong thread

Oops didn't even know we had this thread yet, was posting in general March thread

12z Euro qpf > 0.5" roughly ORH east, >1" roughly south shore to Cape

12z Euro and GFS almost dead on with SLP at 72 hrs... and ensembles support an even closer track

Actually almost dead on SLP of 12z GFS at 72 hrs, pretty good consensus for moderate impact to eastern SNE... and ensembles signal an even closer track

Southern stream more delayed, northern stream digging more... should be a decent tick west with track just outside benchmark

12z Euro trending towards a bigger hit, thru those streams are closer to interacting

Kohx afd catching up to the model trends mentioned earlier... adding in chance of some cirrus blow off of storms in Mississippi valley.

Not the end of the world given soupy airmass, and still think there's room for this to trend great vs. good for BNA. I feel like it's January writing this: we want that 0z Fri GFS / Euro solution back!

35 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

All I want to get is a few shots of the 360 sunrise/sunset.....and a selfie with the black hole in the sky behind me.....other than that I will just take it in.....just finished packing....not checking baggage....I have downloaded detailed eclipse state maps and I downloaded the whole plains/upper Midwest section of the country to my iPad that I can use offline.....Google Maps.....it behaves just like it was online....I've packed a small umbrella for shade on the ground....a towel....lol

Was thinking of photos with black hole in the sky behind... how will you angle your camera? The sun will be nearly overhead (vs. those shots you see with the eclipse near the horizon).

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'm surprisingly calm.   Plan to pack my little bag tonight.  Usually first thing in is socks and undies but this a time it's my eclipse glasses.  Pick up the car at BNA, check in to the hotel-maybe take a practice run up to Gallatin and come back for dinner.  Monday AM up early-coffee and up to gallatin to park, maybe breakfast, setup my position-everything contingent on the forecast being right...lol.

Key word might be "surprisingly" lol... I'm quite giddy. I'll PM you my cellphone #.

Packing includes hardcopy road maps assuming cellular service will be inundated.

Picking up rental at BNA, have to also pick up my brother, then we will head to motel in downtown Nashville. Not sure we will trial run to Gallatin though I'd definitely do that if I were alone. Monday AM early wakeup, plan to leave for Gallatin by 9-9:30am, and will adjust earlier if crowds are obviously insane Sunday night.

Reminder for everyone to turn off cellphone service / texting etc so as not to get annoying distractions during eclipse.

My only plan is to video record ~ 10 min of event on my iphone. Nothing distracting, no practice needed, no messing around with camera settings. Otherwise just taking in every second of the experience.

Not sure how these cloud prediction algorithms are done... weather.us and pivotalweather GFS trended cloudier for BNA area, entirely high clouds, though ridge placement looks about the same as the best run 0z Fri for GFS + Euro. Kohx sounded optimistic this morning, scattered ci + diurnal cu.

I think we are in good vs. great territory. We'll take it and hope it trends even better in next day!

Jerry, check out kohx afd