wxsniss

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been worried about this

Yes you have... wish you had started the obs thread for posterity!

H5 has argued for an earlier interaction and capture, and as you said, the multiple bobbling low centers is often how models sort out the vorticity interactions as we get closer.

That NAM run is widespread 20-30" in eastern MA.

Trending towards a cleaner capture of a consolidated low rather than the complex juggling of multiple low centers... this run verbatim is knocking on the door of historic.

Wow!!!!!

Holy schiat... this is gonna be the biggest hit on SNE by far... 

I especially like the move away from a stretched out dual low... earlier consolidation

Monster hit incoming on NAM

Thru 12 hrs... this is gonna be another SLP about same as 18z but mid-level features improved for bigger impacts

Yes Mesoanalysis is how you compare

Regardless of early antics, and even bigger hit on eastern SNE

Wow just wow, this is looking like Jan 2005 one of the all time greats for SNE

Thru 24h, 972 south of BM

Definitely coming northwest

Gonna be a big hit

12z UK looks almost dead on with 0z in terms of SLP track, slightly deeper, cut qpf slightly in far west zones

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just looking at the RAP for early fun. Good lord. 3 feet E MA (out of its' range)

Yeah 12z RAP shows how it's done for entertainment in clown range... well-timed interaction of n/s streams and this closes and reopens multiple times with influx of n stream prolonging impacts on SNE

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

FWIW, most recent RAP models have the northern stream vort exactly the same over Wisconsin/Michigan/Iowa as other model guidance... (i.e. further northeast of where it might seem on water vapor)

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wondering if my wife's flight into BOS tomorrow at 130pm will be cancelled.

Boston.com feed just reported ALL American Airlines flights are canceled Tuesday out of Boston... 1:30pm flight, there's a very high chance it is canceled

Logan will be just as close to criteria as areas on north shore... surprised Blizzard Warning does include Boston

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

I commented earlier on a relative sub zone shown over us on the 12k/3k NAMs... even still we break 10", just harder to reach 14-18" amounts to the west and southeast

"Skylar"... wtf

The media's naming each system fits this selfie generation

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Welcome to 15 mins ago.

LOL

phone analysis during bathroom break FTL, missed the entire last page of posts... was wondering why I was the only one excited

As unreliable as the RGEM has become, great to see it join the party

12z RGEM big hit eastern SNE!

6z run was just a dry burp

12z RGEM coming in further northwest !!!

Just now, weathafella said:

This map also suggests some decent banding in western areas into Logan11 land but maybe some awful screw zones in the middle.

Yep very clear banding signatures on 12k / 3k NAMs... we gotta be careful playing with these meso features, I think the 6z 3k NAM had us in a relative sub zone for a brief time... kept us more 11-13" rather than 14"+ on both sides... all too far out to nail down any of this of course

This is killing my work / sleep...! I bargained with myself that this will (probably) be the final hurrah for the season.

While Ginx is getting rest...

Re: 6z RGEM... 

you guys did see that the SLP is actually more northwest tucked in than 6z NAM, but the precip shield is uber tight... not sure I buy that, especially with mid level processes further out... RGEM does have weird dry burp runs (? feels more often in 6z/18z runs)

How about this for a trend friend... 

This most recent run is the most robust Euro run to hit SNE in the past 5 runs

Current > Sun 0z > Sat 12z > Sun 12z > Sat 0z

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds similar to 12z..tick west 

It's much better than 12z... 1" qpf:  to 495 on 0z vs. only to canal on 12z

This run has good continuity with last night's 0z... something made the 12z 3/11 Euro burp