wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Yep, exemplified by 21z HRRR... between 4z and 5z Friday poof it develops a surface low far east that drives the show and refuses to give up the wheel... almost as if the strong vorticity rounding KY/WV were not there... doesn't make sense to me.
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18z 3k NAM (left) vs. mesoanalysis for 22z... this is promising... (the east system is weak / disorganized) 21z HRRR (vs. earlier runs) hangs on to the eastern SLP a little longer... let's hope it's wrong
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18z GFS almost looks like it's wrapping the convection into eastern MA by 12z Friday... Will mentioned this hypothetical earlier:
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Box will want to expand the 8-12" area if this keeps up, at least further west along the pike region into southeast MA
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Here's the culprit off the coast that we're hoping is over-developed on guidance: Hard to extrapolate from now, need to see how this evolves over next 6 hours... we want to see less convection blowing up and less of an organized/deepening low 21z:
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Here we go... Awesome nowcast event with very reasonable high bust potential, especially for eastern SNE Excellent map from what I'm seeing at the moment:
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Hugely improved and illustrates the high bust potential, especially for eastern SNE Better digging vorticity, much more emphasis on the western low center
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Differences from 12z looks to me noise In fact, this run continues the Euro 6z/18z || 0z/12z waffle, with the former more robust. That has been going on for over a day now... must reflect something about how these are run. So expect 6z to come in more robust again.
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We've been calling for the NW trend and a GFS cave for days now, despite skepticism. The OTS tracks simply did not make sense with the position/strength of vorticity and trough. Never wavered from 3-6/4-8 since weekend, and there is still potential for more as I think that lead convection is still mucking up the low positioning and best conveyor mechanics on guidance.
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That kink (green arrow)... this (0z left) is a definite improvement over 18z NAM (right), and 12z NAM was garbage:
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At hr 33 look at that upstream kink at H5, wasn't there on 18z... I think gonna be a better run What's for sure, 12z NAM was an outlier
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18z GFS showing signs of caving, and even so still could be better given that vorticity strength/placement but it struggles with low placement and conveyor mechanics because of that lead convection. Consensus is growing, and I still think there is potential for more NW trends.
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For fun, from 3kNAM Boston area Friday morning... would be heaviest we've seen since last year:
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The big holdouts we need to see cave are GFS and 12k NAM, which at the moment are in good agreement with each other but nothing else. What I see as continuing discordance between strength/placement of that vorticity and SLP on the 18z 12k NAM make me think we'll see trends for better this evening.
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Given that NAM/GFS were the worst at 12z, this is a definite positive step. Still think the strength of this vorticity (now that it's held with overnight sampling) brings potential for better trends.
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Yeah I take this as a positive, better H5 evolution (stronger, more consolidated further west), even though surface is a head scratcher
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I think this comes in better than 12z Through 36h, vort is more consolidated, looks more similar to 12z RGEM than 12z NAM
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Blend of 12z NAM/RGEM/EC/UK/CMC supports 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE I like the Box map and think they hold steady this afternoon
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Oh I understand, that was my concern as well, and why the 6z/12z meso runs today are reassuring. 12z Euro almost identical to 0z, a hair less than 6z.
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Just missed you in the overnight shift, now tuning in for Euro... yeah I posted that the site going down last night was a mercy kill for all the overreacting over 1/5 0z NAM. Haven't wavered from thoughts since weekend: 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE as a start, and now that we've survived ingest of shortwave sampling in Pac NW, I still anticipate this could trend NW in final 48 hours with potential for higher totals.
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Box not weighing GFS much, looks reasonable blend of EC and mesos, widespread 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE
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Yeah 6z Rgem actually looks like it ticked a hair NW with surface track Can’t take any of these verbatim but bottomline there was no rug pulled with new data ingested at 0z
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Site's back... apparently a mercy kill to minimize fretting over 0z GFS/NAM 0z EC ticked west and 6z NAM12k/3k a huge hit, 6-12" much of SNE Just missed you Jerry! We appropriately did not overreact to the 0z NAM, and while we can't take 6z NAM verbatim, it at least does not support the concern of improved sampling at 0z. Differences I see at 6z include a slightly stronger shortwave entering Pac NW and better downstream ridging / less of that scooter streak.
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Just catching up to 0z stuff Yeah agree I’d dismiss NAM in a heartbeat at this time range especially vs EPS, but can’t rule out that this is reflecting better sampling of a weaker shortwave. The differences were apparent already when it was up in the Pacific Northwest. Still too early to nail the coffin.
