wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Our much scrutinized pieces of energy are traversing Alaska this evening Feels a little like BOX making sure disclaimers are clear after posting that snowfall map today... https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1486147688009977857?s=20
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NAM guidance is still fluid... look at the southern shortwave at 6z Friday... it has trended 50-100 miles east (more conducive to phase) every run for 4 runs in a row now Great run for SNE
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About as good as we can ask for eastern SNE... a tic southeast compared to 12z, high density near BM and then looks like it tracks NNE... and most members are 960s-970s
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Euro-GFS blend would keep most of this subforum happy No clear takeaway trends at 18z imo, and we're still dancing around the fullest potential of this. Will commented on the western ridge being a hair flatter on 18z GFS... might be at least in part why this tracked farther despite the earlier phase interaction. Another thing to watch.
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Further south Almost demonstrates the other extreme what happens if it does not close off until it's farther east
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Main thing I take away from 18z NAM is thru 54hrs... 12z had southern energy way back SW, farther than most guidance... this 18z run is correcting... beyond that, probably not much value
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Exotic territory... and we're all thinking wow if this unfolds verbatim, because this is so rare I posted this last night... I'm curious when the region last had a blizzard from a (albeit briefly) warm core system?
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EPS a hair northwest of 12z/18z You can see the LBSW cluster
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Honestly lots of wobbling around on guidance contingent on that southern stream energy... no uniform trend tonight
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LBSW with the earlier phase All of SNE does ok but eSNE not as good as 0z/12z runs earlier today The 0z/12z Euro / UK runs earlier today were close to the best for eSNE
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Actually looks very close to last night's Jan 24 0z run at H5 thru hr 90 This is definitely going to be better... can see start of phase interaction hr 90
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thru hr 72, can already see the southern shortwave tracking further east compared to 12z... let's see if this facilitates phase
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Tells the scale of this event: thread the needle is for historic, and we’ve seen exactly that depicted verbatim on reliable models… but lots of buffer for widespread warning+
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Phasing happens just a tad later, H5 closes overhead / into gulf of ME, so we just miss the more epic solutions. It's close.
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Slower, further west Huge hit eSNE 18z-21z Sat
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0z GFS: Southern shortwave at 12z Friday is about 150 miles further east... should be more conducive to earlier phase
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ICON made a big jump with handling of southern shortwave At 12z Friday, was previously over TX, now it's way back to NM/AZ border Not weighing it much compared to Euro / EPS, but another example of how sensitive this system is to the speed of that energy and downstream timing of phase
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Yeah that run is a keeper. Goes warm core by Saturday too. A HECS verbatim. I wonder when was the last time we had a warm core blizzard. Question is what variation of that does reality take 4.5 days away.
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Yeah pretty incredible Haven't had time to more than lurk today... will be back for the late night shift Vacillations between grazer and just outside BM are a good place to be
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Yeah very strong signal... and exactly where I highlighted it on the 0z OP run ~hr 120-126 12z OP run seems like the outlier Guidance honing in on a big one... get rest folks, exciting week ahead!
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EPS have > 15 members with 940s-960s near or just inside BM
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Wish we could lock it in! But confidence significantly increased for a big hit.
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As theorized earlier today... that was literally a jump of 200-300 miles west as a result of a better N-S stream interaction Great to see this on the Euro OP
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Yep, 30 spots are in reach eastern MA
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1-2 feet roughly ORH east, Cape Cod 20-30" Significantly builds confidence, lots of cross-guidance op and ens support It was a big shift at H5 (see my earlier post at hr 126, phasing over TN/KY) with drastic downstream impact:
