burrel2

C+ here so far. 3 separate events with measurable winter precip.

That's above normal for my back yard. Total accumulation of 2.75 inches snow/sleet spread across two systems and a light glaze of ice with the 3rd system.

Not great, but right at my 25 year seasonal average.

2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

RGEM failed miserably on temps. It said I was at 31 while I sat at a balmy 37 before precip rolled in. Icon nailed total precip in the days before the storm and 3k nam nailed temps. I won't look back at this one and say "Man, the RGEM had this one pegged" 

The pre-event temp "bust", was just due to quicker cloud cover and/or discrepancies on when precip started and when wetbulbing would occur.

What mattered was the low temperature during the event, and the Rgem had the GSP area bottoming at 31 and hold 31/32 from 5am until 10am or so, and that's exactly how it played out.  

35 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Hey Mack, hope you didnt lose power this morning! I haven't looked outside but I'm assuming there's an inch of ice on the ground based on what the RGEM was showing yesterday! #3kFTW 

RGEM was never showing an inch of ice for the upstate, lol.

Whatever source you guys were using for those RGEM maps was showing ice accrual based of a stock 1 to 1 ratio of rain to ice if the surface temp was < 32.

Greenville did get over .75 inches of liquid with temps less than 32 degree's. Problem is the temp was 31.5 to 32 during that time with torrential downpours, so only a light glaze was realized.

So in summary, the Rgem nailed this storm, but your ability to read it's modeled output failed. #RgemFTW, lol

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't have easy access to historical records right now.  What exactly happened in March 1960?

Snow on the ground and very cold for the entire month in the upstate of SC, 3 separate big events each spaced about a week apart. My great grandmother told me they had to walk through snow to get to Easter service?!?

lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks.  But there's always March 1960!

See you guys next winter

850's are going to be -3 instead of 0... should be 20:1 ratio's with that.

"Cold air won't be a problem with this storm"

Sunday morning has my attention now.  That's a pretty fresh dry/cold airmass that moves overhead on Saturday. GFS is most likely overdoing surface warm up Sunday morning. 

Also, mid-levels are by no means torching. Plenty cold enough for sleet in CAD area's and maybe snow in Northern NC.

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4

Sure, 

I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

1 hour ago, SteveVa said:

Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. 

Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. 

Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore.
Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the
upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs
in the 50s.

Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be
rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend.
Highs Fri in the 50s.

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. 

13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

If you got snow from the December event, Then Id suggest watching next Friday into Sat. Same areas are candidates, espeacilly mtns, to really luck up here. Noticed the GEM pics in the MTN thread comparing last 2 model runs how its not far off from Northern GA, mainly NW GA getting in on some action. Grain of salt and caution cause im just looking at surface and not H5 maps. But this sould get interesting.

Cold chasing moisture... no chance for anyone east of the apps, imo.  Northwest Georgia could possibly get something.

3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't understand all the wailing and gnashing of teeth on here right now.  We are at our below average the next 10 days after this weekend.  There is also a potential threat showing up for next weekend and the indices look even better after that.  It turned cold the second week of November and except for a few brief warmups it has been cold since then.  We have had a 3" snow before Christmas and a 5" snow in January plus a number of morning with single digit lows IMBY.  I have been closely following winters for 41 of my 53 years here in the SE and this one has been a good one by SE standards.  Even "great" winters here in the SE are usually front, middle or back loaded.  We still have possibilities heading into Feb.  It is quite unusual for us in the SE to go multiple months with threats of winter weather.  Enjoy it folks, it's a rare thing.  

It hasn't been that good for everyone in the Southeast... maybe that's why some are gnashing teeth more than others.

2 hours ago, tramadoc said:

Not only that, but Judah Cohen is talking about a disruption of the SPV. So we got that possibly. Polar Vortex. Phase 8 MJO. SSW. Incoming pattern change. Discuss amongst yourselves. I have to go put a new aluminum double pass radiator in my 93 Land Cruiser. Anyone feel like giving me a hand? Free beer and Blanton's. LOL

In other news, the grass is green and the sky is blue.

I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west.

Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time.

Did the euro just run earlier than normal? Hr 240 is already out on tropical tidbits.

16 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Wasn’t 1/23/2003 also projected to hit there before the last 24 hours?

Oh yea, that was the worst one of the bunch. Nary a flurry fell at my house in Walhalla. My high school teacher who lived in pickens county had an inch or so on her car that morning when she pulled in to work. Of course Greenville to Spartanburg got hammered.

ICON looks like the GFS, CMC trended that way.. ukmo has a somewhat similar look at 144hrs. There's at least something to monitor in this timeframe.

You are right that it's a multi-factor process as to why we always come out on the short end of the stick.

1. Last to get northwest flow Cold air at the surface,(this is the biggest single factor as any storm where we need cold air to arrive in time with precip, everyone around us will do better which is like 50% of winter storms).

2. NW and Westerly flow Down sloping

3. Lee-side trough development precipitation always barely misses us to the East.

4. Always too far West for Coastal bomb precipitation, (exception for 1993 storm where we we're too far East!, #1 factor also hurt us in this storm)

The only way we can score big is with a well-established cold air wedge, but even in those setups Greenville/Spartanburg are a little colder than us!

9 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

What is your exact location?

I don't think people around here understand just how difficult it is for the western upstate to get over about 5 inches. They see and hear about the upstate getting snow, which we often do in a GA/NC/SC winter system (but it's usually small time), or they hear about Landrum or Gaffney and think well the "upstate " got a lot, but that's eastern.

IMBY, I can think of only 2, 5+ inch snows since the 96 Blizzard; 8 inches from 1/2011, and 5.5 from 1/2016 storm. Just think how many on the board have seen 5+ just this winter. Think how many storms since 96 blizzard have delivered 5+ EAST of GSP in the upstate; MOST systems have yielded that total somewhere in Eastern upstate, but never approached in western. And don't even try to count the number of times areas a few miles north above 2000 ft have seen 5+; dozens? Scores? There is always a monkey wrench; downslopping, warm bubble, dry slot, not in prime lee regeneration area, last to feel frontal cold, gets precip from west just as it dies in situations where a coastal low forms, but too far west to benefit from that coastal low, ULLs push away from mtns, etc, etc. Eastern upstate is just a little bit better in all those situations. This storm was a perfect illustration of many of those. Amazing to see all the 4-6in  totals from Sptbg eastward and look at all the sub one inch totals from clemson westward. But sadly, that is the norm. The only way we can really get a big one is in a true cold over running event (1/88, 1/2011), and those are just extremely rare. Despite the beauty of Pickens and Oconne counties, it's almost enough to make snow lovers want to move. 

I Grew up in Walhalla and have lived in Clemson the last 15 years.  Even you guys have scored better storms than my back yard. It's really amazing.  I would venture to guess if you had a map that highlighted area's that haven't received 6 inches of snowfall in the last 25 years. There would be a tiny dot over Southern Pickens and Oconee counties, and then like no other area highlighted anywhere in the southeast. Even lookout has had >6 inch snowfalls.  Here are two examples of my biggest heartbreaks growing up. The second map is January 2nd, 2002. Also, the 2004 map is overdone for my backyard, I got exactly one inch from that one. 

12 hours ago, Wow said:

How'd you fare in the Superstorm?

4 inches

4 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

I strongly feel this winter will be special for most everyone on the board - don't think you will have to wait another 15 years

This winter has already been very special for North West Georgia, All of NC... mountains/central/eastern/coast, and all of coastal South Carolina/GA.

The only area really left out so far is the Western/Southern Upstate down to Columbia.

1 minute ago, jburns said:

5.75".  Well damn. I've brushed more than that off my snowboard so I could begin measuring the main part of a storm.

One day, the stars will align and i'll get a big storm, and it will be all that much sweeter after the life-time wait.  That's what I've been telling myself the last 15 years or so anyways.

Need at least one other global model to show something similar before I give it a second thought.

12 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Next time Mack makes fun of me for tracking a clipper I'm pulling these analogs. Who wants a Miller A when you can score with a clipper and marginal temps? #RatesOvercame

If you call this a clipper than you have to call March 2009 a clipper too I guess, that one was juicy.