burrel2

My streak of never having a 6 inch snowfall at my house is still in tact.... and i'm 32 years old. I've only witnessed one snow over 4 inches, and that was 5.75 inches in January 2011; of course greenville managed 8 inches or snow from that storm.

Edit to add: I don't count Jan 1988 b/c I was 3 years old and don't remember it.

I was honestly expecting to waste .10 of liquid to raining/melting here, but I have .00 in the guage so far with a dusting on the ground and temp of 32.9 and dropping. It looks like we aren't going to waste any liquid! All the short range modells have .25 to .35 of liquidt falling here so I'm thinking 2 to 3 inches is a lock!

2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Models keep shifting NW and delaying. Temps are too warm. This and that, the usual. I'm guessing we'll see an inch around RDU. I guess if we have enough 1" storms we can reach an average winter again.

Only you could find something to complain about sitting directly in the bullseye of a storm 6 hours out. I might be slightly concerned in SE wake county or anywhere South and east of there, but you should be golden, imo

Also, we're way to far out to predict this, but this is the type setup that could produce an inverted trough behind the mountains and lead to a surprise precip maxima somewhere.

Euro appears to be tapping the gulf a little bit. That's a good sign for us Western people to have a chance.

3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

But ice instead of snow? What are 850s, 925s looking like? 

Would be sleet to ice for the upstate

I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping from central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

Lol, I dunno what people have been smoking tonight to make that 84hr NAM panel look so good... but I want some of it!!!

00z EURO appeared to be setting up a winter storm at 240hrs as well... maybe this is the one that pans out as the pattern relaxes.

It never freaking fails here.... We finally have a damn near can't miss set up, and the storm just goes poof, when about the last 8 storms have all trended stronger as the event approaches.

Navgem get's an A+ for this one in the mid-range time frame. No other model latched on to the correct large-scale solution like it did. Ukmet was good as well.

Last place in the mid-range goes to the GFS; however, if you take it's biases in to account you could figure it was showing about exactly what you would expect for the storm. In some ways it's deficiencies are so predictable that it makes the modeled output useful, even though they're wrong! Euro was almost as bad.

Rgem wins the day for short range precip-type prediction and thermal profiles, at least for upstate SC. It was spot on with rain/snow line even from 36hrs out or so. 

Hrrr is cranking a stationary band of snow associated with the upper level low all night in to tomorrow morning across the upstate/nc mountains/ and georgia.  Anybody have thoughts on this feature?

Man it is just absoluet ripping snow here! Ground getting white at my house... it's beautiful! Also, loving the looks of the Hrrr for tonight/tomorrow morning. 

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

If that is correct the Upstate warm bubble is almost gone except at the surface. 

We need heavier rates/qpf to get the party started. Only .05 of liquid here so far.  If we can get a burst of heavy rates I think we flip over to snow pretty fast.

53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Burrel, you seeing any snow yet? Do you think the upper level temps get right by this afternoon for most in the upstate or just mtns of the upstate 

Upper level temps are fine for us for the duration of the event,(north if i-85). It all comes down to the boundary layer and how much we cool off at the surface

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

the HP is sitting in the midwest, much different than here. hrrr does not have a warm bias that i have seen, has nailed MANY rain/snow lines over the past few winters.

Hrrr from this morning shows rain flipping to snow in Mississippi around 5am... Latest runs have that flip happening between 11pm and midnight. 

But more than that, from years of watching the Hrrr... it has a warm bias at the surface out past 10 or 12 hrs.

Hrrr has a warm bias. Check out it's 7am run today for the San Antonio area... Notice no hint of snow falling anywhere in that region.

Just now, CARDC79 said:

Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map?  Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain...

White rain is 0:1

Follow the RGEM in the 12 to 36hr range... it's usually right. IMO

Normally that's bad news for us, but in this case it looks slightly better for SC/piedmont NC. We'll see if it nails it this time...

I've been burned many times by surface layer warm air that doesn't evaporate as fast as I had hoped, but.... those other times often involved a thicker warm layer, and daytime snow in late february or march where solar insolation would eat in to accumulating snow even at 30 degree's.  We are just a a couple weeks away from the solstice right now.

I honestly would be ready to push my chips all in for a hammer job if all of the models weren't stuck on bottoming out the upstate at around 35/36. I just don't see how that will be the case if it's ripping it outside at 8am tomorrow morning like most models are showing. But if it is... we won't have any chance for accumulations. 

Rgem is adding on an inch or two of accumulations Saturday morning from the back side.... Hope that pans out.

Dang, check out the back side precip shield Saturday morning on the RGEM... similar to what the GFS is hinting at I suppose. 

FYI, I've found this RGEM product's rain/snow/mix line to be deadly accurate in past events...

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

18z RGEM just showed up...

Just now, Rainforrest said:

Not according to gap. Lol

Won't be the first time they've busted badly.