burrel2

All snow line was at 2700 feet at the nc/sc line on hwy 178. Stating to stick and 33 degrees here.

7 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said:

I always look to your post bc you seem very familiar with the upstate (and it’s ever so annoying) kinks that undoubtedly show up every winter. That being said, any chance this sleet mixing in now helps our circumstances in the N Upstate later?


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The wet snow/slop I’m seeing just north of Pickens now is very encouraging. Temp down to 37.  

39 in Pickens while driving and there’s some slush in the rain drops.

Just now, mstr4j said:

I think places like Landrum and Campobello have a good chance too burrel

absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now!

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

Places from clayton, to salem, to pumpkintown to travelers rest have the potential to flip over to heavy snow around 4 or 5pm tonight. That looks to be the southern extent of this possible early changeover.

I'm not factoring that in to my expectations becuase I don't believe that changeover will make it to my house, but if I lived in the above area's I would be feverishly watching the data pouring in today and crossing my fingers and toes.

9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

And burrel2 drags me back in. 

The plot has definitely thickened. Both of the Hi-res short range models are in lock-step with each other, (hrr and rap).

Both of those models have walhalla to pickens to travelers rest with an isothermal all snow sounding starting at midnight through about 4 or 5 am before they would transition to sleet.

From clemson to easley to DT greenville... both models have us going from rain to sleet around midnight and staying sleet for the rest of the storm. These models also are only .2 ish degree's away from being isothermal from midnight to 4am... the difference between isothermal and not for those 4 hours will be the difference between 5 or 6 inches of snow or 1 inch of sleet.

3 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

What are you looking at? The soundings isn’t really under 32 the entire storm across the Upstate. 

Just now, mstr4j said:

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

Our cold air flip to snow/sleet is totally dependent on when the lowlevel NE jet gets cranking from the pressure gradient tonight. The models have it quickly going from nothing to 40/50knots. The hi-res models are now showing it cranking earlier.. flipping the upstate to sleet by midnight.

Just checked the RAP... it is lock step with the Hrrr in flipping the upstate over to sleet around midnight, and dropping surface temps to below freezing shortly after. 

Here's an image at midnight from the rap.

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

4 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I have a feeling everyone who isn't in the mountains or Virginia is gonna end up here before we're done. As for us in the triad, I really don't like being a few miles from disaster on both the NAM and RGEM.

It'll be nice to have some company for once in here!

Going off the crude ncep maps it looks like the fv3gfs is going to come in colder and snowier for the upstate. This model is either going to go out in flames, or live in infamy after this storm.

Warmnose is salty tonight! 

For the next storm we should all just rent out a hotel in the kill zone and weenie out together. 

Grit eater has me going six to midnight in the main thread! There is still hope for us i85 people!

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well the 18z Euro was the best run I’ve seen of it yet as well on the southern transition zone (colder)

I need details... pics?!?

where are these off hour euro runs? Storm vista?

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.

I doubt anyone In here is expecting those numbers, I’m certainly not.

Just when I was ready to throw in the towel, the fv3 pulls me back in!

lol

FV3gfs is dropping 8 or 10 inches of snow here by midnight tomorrow. This is the best run yet for the upstate. 

I'm throwing in the towel for my back yard. I'll be lucky to get a dusting of sleet and a glaze of ice Sunday morning before melting that afternoon.

I'm traveling to my in-law's house on the NC/SC border at 3000 feet in the morning though. Figure we will get smoked there!

Rgem doubles down on the warmer/amped solution.

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it.  shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch.

It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.

I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution.

Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right)

Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, bc it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Burrel, what location did you use? 

It's a point and click sounding on TT. Tried to click MBY between Clemson and Central.

Mmmm.... ARW even staves off the warm nose here early Sunday morning?!?