burrel2

We’re in hi res model time now. Less than 48hrs out. Toss the euro!

Looks like it's going to Snow in Upstate SC on Tuesday morning. Where's everyone at?

Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick.  We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Never got below 35 here yesterday, that’s about what models were showing, and the few sleet pellets were from the very dry air. This , as well as, the other CADs this year , have not overperformed down here, at all! A few were warmer than modeled!

Here is what the GFS showed at a 5 day lead. Does that look accurate to you?

CAD typically over performs in regards to global model predictions in the mid-range. This event was no different if you go back and look at the prior 5 day lead runs. 

The hi-res shorter range models typically do a good job and sometimes over-estimate CAD. There are also certain situations with CAD that are more likely to bust in the short range than others. For example... you can have short-range busts when you have a really dry air-mass in place, or when the crux of an event depends on how long CAD hangs on before eroding.

There are other instances where CAD events generally bust the other way. One example I see is that if I'm relying on a wedge front coming through and funneling Cold air to the upstate after an event has started, this is usually 2 to 4 hours behind what the models show.

1.2 inches of liquid so far.... smh.

Shakes my head.....

We were forecasted to get a 1/10th inch of liquid at most today by most models. We're over 1/2 inch with heavy rain and lightening popping right now.

Why can't moisture ever bust on the high side like this for a snowstorm!!! Could have been hours of thundersnow...

34.3 at my house just north of Clemson. All the models had me at 38-42 this afternoon with surface temps bottoming out around 34 degrees at 2 or 3 am.

Grant it, we've gotten heavier precip sooner than the models showed so evap cooling has been used up. I'm still curious to see if temps continue to fall some with the High pressure just now moving in to prime position.

I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement.

It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.

15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I really feel like we have said “ CAD will trend stronger/ colder” for every system there has been a chance of wintry!? And it simply has not been the case, once! Even Dec event,5 days out models had me at 33/34 and I never went below 33, the last one we had a shot at, I was supposed to hit 32/33 and never made it below 36

1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times.

2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to.  Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs.

3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.

IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown.  12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. 

Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.

Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it.

10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo.  FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.  

28 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Hey Mack, any idea where I can get a good deal on pre-emergent?

https://www.amazon.com/Prodiamine-Generic-Barricade-5lbs-ali8056/dp/B004GTQBEK

This has mega-bust written all over it for Alabama/Georgia. Can't believe how expansive the warnings/advisories are for this "event".

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, your a lock for the frontal passage snow Wednesday, so enjoy!

Nobody in the Southeast is ever a lock for frontal passage snow. lol

Just now, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Jump on the bandwagon while you still can!

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Does look like a good run for the Carolinas.... right?

Great for Columbia, SC.

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Second event trying to get going at Day 7. Snowing for the second time in four days in Northern Bama.

So close to something huge...

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

I've actually been rooting for this pattern to be a big bust since I'm going to be in Costa Rica from January 25th to February 2nd.  Looks like I'm going get this trip off without missing any threats!

3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...

7 hours ago, WidreMann said:

I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.

PV split failed... in other news, water is wet.

GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.