burrel2

Looks like it's going to Snow in Upstate SC on Tuesday morning. Where's everyone at?

Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick.  We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.

I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement.

It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.

15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I really feel like we have said “ CAD will trend stronger/ colder” for every system there has been a chance of wintry!? And it simply has not been the case, once! Even Dec event,5 days out models had me at 33/34 and I never went below 33, the last one we had a shot at, I was supposed to hit 32/33 and never made it below 36

1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times.

2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to.  Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs.

3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.

IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown.  12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. 

Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.

Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it.

10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo.  FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.  

28 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Hey Mack, any idea where I can get a good deal on pre-emergent?

https://www.amazon.com/Prodiamine-Generic-Barricade-5lbs-ali8056/dp/B004GTQBEK

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, your a lock for the frontal passage snow Wednesday, so enjoy!

Nobody in the Southeast is ever a lock for frontal passage snow. lol

Just now, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Jump on the bandwagon while you still can!

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Does look like a good run for the Carolinas.... right?

Great for Columbia, SC.

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Second event trying to get going at Day 7. Snowing for the second time in four days in Northern Bama.

So close to something huge...

I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential.  Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.

I've actually been rooting for this pattern to be a big bust since I'm going to be in Costa Rica from January 25th to February 2nd.  Looks like I'm going get this trip off without missing any threats!

3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...

7 hours ago, WidreMann said:

I'm not, because when I saw that the PV split failed to propagate downwards and the MJO crashed, this wouldn't happen.

PV split failed... in other news, water is wet.

GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.

And yea... February 2014 sucked just as bad every other storm here.

20 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I'm sorry man. I had no idea.

I don't pretend to be an expert on SC climo, but I know enough to be genuinely surprised by this.

Not even Feb 2014?? Actually I took a quick glance at that, and it looks like that was E of you.

Nor Jan 96?

Not even 93?

Ugh

 

Nope, 3 inches of slop in 93, and a little under 3 inches in 96.

Oddly enough the 2nd biggest snowfall I have ever measured was 4 inches on the nose and it was a dinky clipper system that hit at daybreak in the late 90's. I got maxima'd under a little band for a couple hours and picked up 4 inches while most other places in the upstate got an inch or two. I was living in Walhalla at the time for this storm, Clemson only got an inch or so.

For that event, I can name you 20 events where we have gotten absolutely screwed. The two classic examples of places due South of here getting way more snow than I've ever seen would be February 2004, March 1, 2009, and Feb 2010.  

February 2004 probably stung the worst of them all.  I got a freaking DUSTING from that storm...

9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

No CAE has the honor of being the epic screwzone. They haven't had snow at all in 5 years.

Except they got 8.6 inches in feb 2010. The only event in history where the northern extent of precip was not under modeled... screwing the upstate.

15 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

A lot of whining for an event in early friggin December.

Fuquay is always jealous of Raleigh. Which is envious of Durham ( in regards to snow—not anything else) which is jealous of Hillsborough and Roxboro, and Burlington,which in turn—is envious of GSO. Of which, the gate city is envious of WS, which is usually jealous of Wilkesboro, of whom typically looks to Boone and wishes their snow totals were more like theirs:

This applies to locales in SC as well—along with pretty much anything related to weather, and a lot of things that aren’t. 

TL;Dr, if your mad, reset your expectations, and realize that chances are—someone is going to have more snow than you most of the time. 

Also, I respect kvegas for speaking his mind about not wanting a foot of snow and in the future. Even though I completely disagree with the entire point he was trying to make. The fact that someone in the SE may actually be pulling AGAINst getting a foot of snow makes me reconsider the entire fabric of what makes our universi functional.

 

 

 

 

Your logic if flawed for Clemson, SC. You can pick any city out of a hat in Alabama/GA/SC/NC and they have had a bigger snow in the last 25 years than here.

Since 1988 the biggest single snowfall event in Clemson, SC was 5.75 inches on 1/11/2011. Second biggest snowfall in that time period is less than 4 inches.

So in Summary, I'm not just jealous of Asheville, NC. I'm jealous of Columbia, Augusta, Atlanta, Macon, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Birmingham, Athens, Columbus, Charlotte, etc.etc.etc.

I can tell you the Fv3GFS absolutely nailed the thermal profile here for our storm and we wound up with 1.25 inches of sleet. If you had simply went by the TT kuchera snowmap for my location it was showing 6 inches of snow right up to the event start time. The map/algorithm just can't accurately describe ground truth and it was just wrong, but all of the measurable air data on the fv3 was accurate, and I got what I expected from the strom based off the fv3 data.

To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain.  The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region.

So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps).

36 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

Nearly every model but the NAM was too cold for Charlotte and York County to the south. I'm down around exit 77 area and while sleet has mixed in, there's been 0 accumulation of anything.

Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing.

For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing...

As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation.

If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm.