burrel2

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

4 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I have a feeling everyone who isn't in the mountains or Virginia is gonna end up here before we're done. As for us in the triad, I really don't like being a few miles from disaster on both the NAM and RGEM.

It'll be nice to have some company for once in here!

Going off the crude ncep maps it looks like the fv3gfs is going to come in colder and snowier for the upstate. This model is either going to go out in flames, or live in infamy after this storm.

Warmnose is salty tonight! 

For the next storm we should all just rent out a hotel in the kill zone and weenie out together. 

Grit eater has me going six to midnight in the main thread! There is still hope for us i85 people!

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well the 18z Euro was the best run I’ve seen of it yet as well on the southern transition zone (colder)

I need details... pics?!?

where are these off hour euro runs? Storm vista?

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.

I doubt anyone In here is expecting those numbers, I’m certainly not.

Just when I was ready to throw in the towel, the fv3 pulls me back in!

lol

FV3gfs is dropping 8 or 10 inches of snow here by midnight tomorrow. This is the best run yet for the upstate. 

I'm throwing in the towel for my back yard. I'll be lucky to get a dusting of sleet and a glaze of ice Sunday morning before melting that afternoon.

I'm traveling to my in-law's house on the NC/SC border at 3000 feet in the morning though. Figure we will get smoked there!

Rgem doubles down on the warmer/amped solution.

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it.  shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch.

It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.

I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution.

Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right)

Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, bc it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Burrel, what location did you use? 

It's a point and click sounding on TT. Tried to click MBY between Clemson and Central.

Mmmm.... ARW even staves off the warm nose here early Sunday morning?!?

ARW playing means tricks on me... never gonna happen.

Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images?

38 and wet snow falling here now.

looks like nws GSP was right to go against ishomue with the NAM's thermal profile... lol

Too early to claim victory though, it could easily go the other way as the event unfolds.

NAM drops 15 inches of cement paste on the northern upstate from walhalla to easley to greenville to spartanburg.

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

4 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Meh.  I’m a bitter party of one.  I love living in Raleigh and truly wouldn’t want to live anywhere else but I’m really tired of getting jack squat when it comes to snow.  Charlotte getting more than us Wake County residents is a real WTF.  I’m used to it for the Triad but Charlotte and upstate SC getting more?  I’m convinced that we are just cursed when it comes to snow.

Upstate SC won't get more snow than Raleigh.