burrel2

2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEM surface temps. It has a known cold bias and in events like this the NAM usually does the best in the short range.

Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit!

16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

NAVGEM looks to have a deform band over us!!? How are temps that run?

The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85

06z Navgem doubles down on the westernNC/SC crush job. Verbatim it's showing well over a foot of snow in the mountains/foothills.

Here is 7am Friday to 1pm Friday totals, and 7pm Friday to 1am Saturday totals... it's a lot of liquid!!!

Navgem is firmly in the ukmet/cmc/jma camp...

So we have UKmet/JMA/CMC that are amped with precip shield all the way back to western TN. This puts the warm nose/ mixing with rain line closer to the i-85 corridor. JMA is the coldest in that regard.

Then we have NAM/GFS with a more muted precip shield, but the warm nose/mixing in line is further south/east.

Euro falls somewhere in the middle of the two camps.

This doesn't take in to account the surface warm layer,(hopefully we can overcome that with decent rates.)

FWIW, the JMA is dropping over 30mm of liquid over my back yard for the event, with 850's never rising above -2C.   That's 1.18 inches of liquid!  

00z JMA... continues to be cold and amped...would be a massive snow storm for the 85 corridor.

Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something!

12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Not all of that is frozen. Alot of that falls as rain. But to continue the Jma. H5 slightly negative. 

 

 

It's all frozen for Western NC/SC(mby). Raleigh to Charlotte would most likely have mixing issues with that track.

Liquid from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday

12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Hard to tell with the crummy maps, but it looks like this is drop 1"plus of liquid across my area with supportive temps for snow.

Confidence for me is increasing that we'll see some flakes and maybe a car topper. Confidence in anything more than that has decreased overnight, but there's still time for things to change drastically either way.

Here comes the sustained -NAO now that winter is over.

Welp, stick a fork in this winter. It's over. Maybe we'll have better luck next year!

This gets us out to Feb. 15th.... 

Where is everyone? This thread looks like the place to be for the next several weeks....

Welp, Models took a turn for the worst last night. I see no realistic chance of snow for us over the next 10 days, with no sign of a decent pattern past that.... Winter cancel???

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Cool Burrel, got any ski pics?  Flying over central Colorado in winter is pretty sweet....just a vast area of deep white, and snow choked mtns.

Yea... it was breathtaking, pictures don't do it justice.

Our rental car.... snow chains were a must.

So the last 3 days we stayed in Crested Butte to go skiing. I thought I had seen a lot of snow at our cabin, (6ft).  That was until we arrived in Crested Butte.... They had recieved over 100" in the last 5 days. The most snow they've gotten since 1980! It was INSANE!!!! This is what buried looks like.

My trip to our cabin in Colorado was a success.... Had to snow shoe in and out. They had gotten about 6 foot of snow in the last week. The snow was so deep that it had a blue'ish hue when you dug down deep enough! I was in heaven out there!

3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Beware of the sneaky warm nose in the 750-800 mb range.  You won't find these on the conventional maps, and will have to look at soundings.  I've been bitten by that one too many times.  Of course, that's a chore for closer in. 

Shouldn't be a problem with the shortwave being so weak and surface low tracking so far to the south. Now, if this thing starts to crank up the coast then it might come in to play for NC people.

That look is for sure better than what the models have been showing. We can score without ridging out west if the ridge over greenland sets up that far to the west. Looks similar to 2011 when we scored.

The Euro seems to be the only model trying to build a west-based negative NAO though, but maybe it'll be right?

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm in the blue!

I'm sure the mountains will get there share of snow before the season is over, we just need you guys to drop a few crumbs down to us.