burrel2

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

Hrrr is usually torching us 18h ours out, and it has the northen upstate flipping to snow by 7am Friday.. which is way ahead of schedule with most other modeling. Maybe the Hrrr and Rap are on to something.

A nice band of snow showing up on the Hi-res NAM around lunchtime Friday up the I-85 corridor in SC. If it plays out like this I think the upstate could get a quick inch or two of snow as the heaviest burst comes through.  Both the Hi-res NAM and RGEM are really slow to change over from rain to snow here, which I don't understand looking at the soundings. From what I see we should flip over to snow relatively quickly once rates pick up. We'll find out I guess.

2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEM surface temps. It has a known cold bias and in events like this the NAM usually does the best in the short range.

Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit!

16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

NAVGEM looks to have a deform band over us!!? How are temps that run?

The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85

06z Navgem doubles down on the westernNC/SC crush job. Verbatim it's showing well over a foot of snow in the mountains/foothills.

Here is 7am Friday to 1pm Friday totals, and 7pm Friday to 1am Saturday totals... it's a lot of liquid!!!

Navgem is firmly in the ukmet/cmc/jma camp...

So we have UKmet/JMA/CMC that are amped with precip shield all the way back to western TN. This puts the warm nose/ mixing with rain line closer to the i-85 corridor. JMA is the coldest in that regard.

Then we have NAM/GFS with a more muted precip shield, but the warm nose/mixing in line is further south/east.

Euro falls somewhere in the middle of the two camps.

This doesn't take in to account the surface warm layer,(hopefully we can overcome that with decent rates.)

FWIW, the JMA is dropping over 30mm of liquid over my back yard for the event, with 850's never rising above -2C.   That's 1.18 inches of liquid!  

00z JMA... continues to be cold and amped...would be a massive snow storm for the 85 corridor.

Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something!

12 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Not all of that is frozen. Alot of that falls as rain. But to continue the Jma. H5 slightly negative. 

 

 

It's all frozen for Western NC/SC(mby). Raleigh to Charlotte would most likely have mixing issues with that track.

Liquid from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday

12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Hard to tell with the crummy maps, but it looks like this is drop 1"plus of liquid across my area with supportive temps for snow.

Confidence for me is increasing that we'll see some flakes and maybe a car topper. Confidence in anything more than that has decreased overnight, but there's still time for things to change drastically either way.

Here comes the sustained -NAO now that winter is over.

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I know, they always told us in the 80s, it'll burn your cornea or retinas, the light that's not obscure, the outer ring, is way brighter than just the sun! I think it might be safe , with welding goggles!?

Well there hasn't been a total eclipse in South Carolina in like a 100 years.. so whatever you saw in the 80's isn't going to compare to this... lol

8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don't understand all the fuss about something you can't look at anyway!? But you best believe I'll be trying to take selfies of me , trying to get the eclipse in the picture!

Can't look at? It's a total eclipse.... it's suppose to be almost completely dark outside when it happens.  

http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/what_you_see.htm

Anybody getting excited about the solar eclipse? The centerline of it crosses my drive way!  From what I've read it sounds like quite the spectacle.

Welp, stick a fork in this winter. It's over. Maybe we'll have better luck next year!

FWIW, I think we should add Sunday's non-storm on this list.

I'm pretty sure the Euro never had a single run in the long/medium range showing this storm while the GFS was spitting out everything from massive ice storms, to heavy rain storms. Now that were 60hrs away from the event it's evident that there is essentially going to be no storm other than the Canadian low that the Euro was advertising all along. Score one for the Euro here...

Here is a depiction of the current GFS run for Sunday morning.. with the 168hr prog for the GFS and Euro from last weekend.

This gets us out to Feb. 15th.... 

Where is everyone? This thread looks like the place to be for the next several weeks....

Welp, Models took a turn for the worst last night. I see no realistic chance of snow for us over the next 10 days, with no sign of a decent pattern past that.... Winter cancel???