Disc

Took a trip up to Mountain Lake in Giles Co and easily 6 to 7 inches of powder on the ground. Lots of rime ice all over everything and temps were in the low 20s with no wind.

It's an equation for summing all of the projected snowfall for a given forecast period, along with accounting for compaction.

Rain for the past hour or two has finally now begun its transition to snow here in Blacksburg. Once it goes to snow, it'll come down fast.

This has been a rather tough forecast, mainly due to the fact that this will be developing directly overhead. However, it's hard to ignore model trends across southern Virginia and the NC mtns. I am now beginning to wonder if this will just begin as snow for most, considering the current observations are running a bit colder than what guidance has been showing. If it does begin as snow, I expect some of the higher totals to verify. One thing I have noticed is somewhere across central/southern VA, some mesoscale banding will likely produce some efficient snowfall rates. This is noted in a band of stronger FGEN running west to east as pictured below. Rates within this zone will likely see 1in/hr at times. NBM probabilistic guidance supports this with an area of higher probabilities across southern VA/NW NC. Based on 01z NBM of 24hr snowfall greater than 4.0 inches is now at: DAN: 60% ROA: 80% LYH: 80% TNB: 70% A very sharp drop in probabilities occur along and south of the VA/NC border. However, probabilities for at least 1.0 inch is around: GSO: 60% RAH: 40%

Some photos from Virginia Tech this evening. Never broke 32F today. Back down to 27F with some freezing fog setting in.

1 1/2sm vsby. 30F

A few flakes falling now. (Blacksburg, VA)

Snow cam is ready to go!

Yep! Very icy over this way. Had to "shuffle" to move across the parking lot.

A lil slick down here at the office. Currently 26F.

Steady snow in Blacksburg. Secondary roads and all sidewalks covered. Intensity has just really picked up. Down to 24.5F and dropping fast.

Power has been flickering here now.. but still on as of now. Gusting mid 40mph range.

Whoa! https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

Already getting gusts in Ashe and Watauga Counties in the 50mph range at higher peaks.

I hope everyone here and everyone in general stays safe. This is a significant event unfolding. We can't stress enough how serious this event could be as the main circulation comes through in the morning.

Still a lot of cloud cover and drizzle across much of Virginia leading to a lot of uncertainty. If we can start to break out of the clouds, I think this has a decently high ceiling considering the parameter space in place. CAMs are rather impressive with discrete cells forming in NC around 21z and then moving into Virginia and congealing more into a broken line as they progress into Central and Northern VA by 00z - 03z. Some impressive helicity tracks are noted moving into Southern Virginia, but wane a bit as they move north of I64, where I'd say this becomes more of just a wind threat. The new RRFS has been the most robust with this advertising multiple discrete cells, but the HRRR and NSSL/WRF models have a similar idea. I believe the WoFS will be run starting at 17z which has proven to be quiet skillful in the near term.

Light snow for about an hour or so.

Large debris fallout in correlation coefficient. A significant tornado likely occurred. Hearing reports of people trapped in Nash County.

Lots of golf ball and even a tennis ball size hail from the storms in C VA today.

All sleet in Blacksburg, VA. edit: and now just rain.

Here and watching. Our best chance at snow all winter. ULLs can do some crazy stuff, so this will be a wild ride the next few days.

Think of the NBM as a cycle or two behind the deterministic guidance. The 18z NBM has the 12z GFS/GEFS, but still has the 00z ECMWF/EPS and some 06z guidance. Full ECWMF 12z guidance is not within the NBM until its 21z run.

Damage in Bedford Co

I like where this was going..