Burghblizz

And just for fun the “best case” experimental view. That dry slot on NAM is still pretty fierce where I could see a place like Wheeling doubling up Greensburg. But in general, the NAM seems to have lost the total shit show solution, which is one of things I wanted to see.

Not sure how Tolleris is resolving the fact that the NW edge outside his sleet line is where the totals should ramp up - yet that’s where he has the totals drop off. Probably the single most important issue in terms of where big totals wind up. He tries to forecast for a wide area, and doesn’t put diligence into those areas.

I’ll start to worry about the NAM at 0z. At that point, all the anecoctal, weather fan reasons to toss it become fewer. It will be an on hour run with the storm arriving within 24 hours. That’s usually where it’s considered good.

Way different with low track. And mixing here means potential sig ice, not rain like in 1.19

If we can avoid the frozen snow cone…and I think most will to a large degree…they really might want to consider adding “bowing and drifting” to the forecast Monday. Could be 30 MPH winds with snow showers and a lot of snow on the ground.

I wouldn’t worry about the exact orientation of pink and blue. I think that’s a 2” hour.

I think this is why we all do well - but it’s like 5” to 12” well, as opposed to a nice tight range. Where it’s ripping it will be ripping. Where it’s not, it might be a light mix for while, which will further hold totals down. So any prolonged period with that gets you behind the game. So a deeper storm hurts - because of the warm air aloft. But it also can HELP with dynamic cooling.

When the bad outlier for PIT is 7”, I’ll take it. It does really show the worst case scenario though for Fayette and Westmoreland (talking NAM)

It’s good if you want to see if a you have some good rates in the next few hours - but I wouldn’t look at totals 30 hours before the storm.

GFS looking nice and robust still at 18Z

Thanks for your thoughts. He was weenying out a bit

If you are looking for a trend, it’s snowier than 12Z. Fills in a wider swath of 6”+ and gets that 12+ tail closer from the NW. Sure, Its the worst model for us still, but it’s better than it was.

GFS looks fine. 12-15” city and points North and West. More mixing south and east, but still warning snows there too before any crap. That 119 corridor looks most susceptible. Seems to extend the backend a little too. A post storm snow globe day Monday would hit the spot.

NAM likely isn’t right. Mid level low is far enough SE that it’s not going to flood like that. If it does, we are going to have a helluva snow cone Monday Morning.

Sounds pretty fair

Probably a blend as it’s their actual forecast. That heavier band N/NW has been consistently showing up as as some of mixing/slotting. Just depends on where that all lands.

My takeaway from the NAM is juicier. Puts some big totals north and west of the city, and somehow has a little bullseye of .50 freezing rain over my house (but not north, south, east or west) Not sure if that’s a function of it struggling at long range, or picking up on something. My guess is that there some brief warming from the inland low, and the totals differ based on the how much QPF there is during that period. So it looks wonky. I hope we have a nice fat swath of straight snow by tommorow.

Mesoscale modes aren’t going to do great with mesoscale features at hour 84

Yeah it’s fine. Slightly Different evolution and the heavy banding is bouncing around. So it’s location specific output might look a little less.

Lots of details to be worked out - but I love that look of a captured /retrograding storm. Puts accumulating snow well into Monday.

I don’t recall anyone mixing. Greene and Fayette counties got drilled. 30” lollipops.

EURO more WEST. Sneaking a leak (and a peek) in a meeting, but I think it’s output is going to be nice (esp city and east)

Stronger and maybe a little dicey for the Mon Valley. North of city looks great. Still good run IMO since there is some “too far east” leaning guidance out there too

Oh boy…