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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    I think that is generally correct. Especially in our area where it seems to underestimate warm air advection. So when that is the driver of snowfall, it’s going to underestimate it. When it leads to mixing issues, it also of course underestimates that. The why’s are above my pay grade. The mesoscale models with smaller grid spacing pick up more local nuances and thus are more accurate in the short team
  2. Burghblizz
    Great start to winter! The Euro and NAM were good at showing the possibility of a prolonged period of snow. Got to love closed lows and negatively tilted troughs in these parts. I still saw flakes even this morning. I don’t necessarily consider any of these 3 events overachievers per se. The model support was definitely there for these amounts. It’s just nice to have the digital snow translate to real snow. That’s been a problem the last few years
  3. Burghblizz
    NAM picked up on the prolonging of the snow into this afternoon. I feel like this is the type of fluffy snow that will add a sneaky inch or two if it continues. Wouldn’t be suprised to see an event total pushing 6” The average yinzer with a ruler probably won’t report that much since it might not add much to the depth as last nights snow settles. But with NWS likely clearing their board every 6 hours, they will report > 6”
  4. Burghblizz
    Merry Christmas! Looks like officially 4.5”, with 3” after midnight Probably the opposite of the last storm as Moon likely does a little better than city and points east.
  5. Burghblizz
    Not sure if it was more the flash freeze or a period of freezing rain, but everything was quickly covered in ice. Mod snow/sleet mix right now with a dusting on top of the ice. Quite windy
  6. Burghblizz
    Intellicast is pretty much weenie radar because its pretty sensitive and makes snow shields look huge - but I find its pretty good in outlining R/S lines
  7. Burghblizz
    GFS is more progressive than the NAM, but both get to about that 5” to 7” range E to W. NAM has it snowing about 6 hours later into Christmas Day. The upper levels have a closed low with negatively tilted trough. Might be a good sign that this meanders a bit as opposed quickly sliding away.
  8. Burghblizz
    NAM is maybe a tick west with the heaviest axis, but similar for us to 18z (which was more robust than 12z)
  9. Burghblizz
    I think he has been doing it that way close to 20 years. The intent is to look at the lines and project based on what lines u are between and/or near. But you are right, those gaps can get pretty tight in some areas, plus he goes from <1 straight to 3 in this case. So if you are 20 miles east of the 3” line, no clue if he is thinking “almost 3” or “under 1”. Then you hit the 6” line 30 miles the other way Plus it doesn’t account for local climo factors. Much better ways to present it these days.
  10. Burghblizz
    Tolleris is a bit east of most guidance, but he thinks true central has a shot for significant snow
  11. Burghblizz
    GFS a good 6”-7” as well. Models are advertising a suprisingly (to me) wide swath of decent snows. That would seem to give us a bit more wiggle room
  12. Burghblizz
  13. Burghblizz
    This look screams of “uncertainty”, but I think we would all take it on Christmas morning
  14. Burghblizz
    Role reversal from last time....hope the NAM isn’t on to something
  15. Burghblizz
    This is going to be tricky with timing. I can see a bit of a west trend where the post frontal snows have less precip
  16. Burghblizz
    Looks like an active period to track. One thing the virus can’t eff with Only thing better would have been to maintain more of the snow pack.
  17. Burghblizz
    Maybe they heard us complaining that PIT doesn’t get hyped enough. So they figured “not for weenies”. There was a person we used to look out for, but doesn’t look like he/she still does it. I hope they leave them up. I think NWS sites have great info, but they could use help with making the layout more intuitive (and standardized)
  18. Burghblizz
    It blows. I have a much better feel for how the other radar translates into what the intensities will be
  19. Burghblizz
    Making for another great night. Like being in a snow globe. I’d call the additional accumulation just a “dusting” at this point
  20. Burghblizz
    Agree. He provided some great analysis. KPITsnow provided some comedy
  21. Burghblizz
    I just opened my phone at 3:00 out of habit to get ready for the NAM
  22. Burghblizz
    Highest total i saw in the Allegheny County was 14” in Wexford. That backend held on for awhile north of the city. It looks like several county reports after midnight were 10” to 12”. NWS reported 9.4” officially. Local-ish winners seem to be Indiana county. Seeing 15” to 17”
  23. Burghblizz
    For all our model drama over the last 36 hours, this performed squarely within the blend of the models. So while it might be a slight overperformer to most of the forecasts, there was plenty of model guidance to suggest a widespread 8”-12” in AGC The bust potential was the relatively progressive setup and the uncertainty around the banding. So I would have forecasted slightly less as well, but those factors worked enough in our favor. Had a solid 12 hours of snow, and some of those bands were intense!
  24. Burghblizz
    NWS reported 1.6” last hour with 6.6” official so far
  25. Burghblizz
    Weenie post: I looked at the 18Z NAM. Noticed colder 850 temps than depicted before. Could some of the late storm ratios be better? (like i said....bit of a weenie post)
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