dendrite

He’s just been pretty busy and got away from posting.

CON 40kt LCI 45kt Tree down at the top of my hill laying across wires. Luckily we haven’t lost power yet. Eek lost power.

Roaring in CON over the last 10 mins. Lost power. 45mph at the ASOS, but I think it’s higher since then.

We did ToT the first year here and we had 2 kids. It's been ToT cancel since then. Everyone goes down into town where the homes are closer together.

lol...before I forget here’s that link with the error and biases. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Finishing every chase with just a shelf cloud pic is kinda like going home with a girl and only getting a grinding with all clothes on.

Kinda like a low topped line of convection 8 days out?

I cut off the bottom scale, but it’s 0-240hr

Since FV3

Of course it is.

It’s a Brookstone germ free one, but I think they’re related. The calcium absorption pads I use are for Honeywell as well iirc.

Congrats to this palm tree

yeah sorry...wasn't trying to ridicule or anything. I thought you originally posted it in jest.

I had 11/8 for the first reported CON flakes contest at work. The date was picked in July.

"this may be one of those setups where the gfs beats the euro."

I like watching TV weathercasts when the graphics are all pretty and NAM based and the OCM (say Harvey for instance) comes on and says something like "yeah, this sim radar graphic is showing this but don't really believe it...I think this will happen...".

I mean how high can it go? EC op AC is consistently 0.92ish and has started to almost flatline over the last 5+ years. I'd assume the major improvements would be in that d6-10 range as the errors exponentially worsen. EC is almost a full day better than the competition in the LR already.

CON had some VIRGA obs in the remarks around that late aftenoon time. Maybe they reached the ground up here like in ORH. But I do like the weenie 29F -SHSN ob to finish off September. There's nothing on the Franklin Falls COOP forms for 9/30 or 10/1 so the observer apparently didn't see anything during the day, but I'm not sure they were looking for flurries up there at the dam back then either.

I mean seriously...we could all stop paying for Euro data if the error becomes negligible. All of these fancy maps with hundreds of variables and levels would finally become useful. Having just a handful of mandatory levels on the euro hurts for soundings and x-sections. Maybe I'd even view a few of Wizzy's weenie point-click 102hr GFS soundings showing 15000 joules over a silo in Topeka.

Here's the ORH snow obs. Looks like early evening. ORH,1992-09-30 22:00,METAR KORH 302200Z 34008KT 40SM -SHRASN SCT050 BKN080 OVC120 06/M03 A3000 RMK RSB40 BINOVC SLP170 T00611028 ORH,1992-09-30 23:00,METAR KORH 302300Z 32010KT 40SM SCT050 OVC080 05/M02 A3001 RMK VIRGA S-NW RSE2152 SLP173 T00501017 CON just barely snuck the snow in before midnight. Technically it was a T for 9/30 and 10/1. CON,1992-10-01 05:00,KCON 010500Z 00000KT 7SM -SHSN OVC040 M02/M03 A3006 RMK SB39 VLGT SLP181 T10171028 CON,1992-10-01 06:00,KCON 010600Z 19004KT 7SM SCT040 SCT070 M02/M03 A3005 RMK SE12/ SLP179 60000 8/570 T10221033 57005

IIRC the GFS ran almost up to par with the EC error wise when used with the EC initialization years ago. So maybe we need to stop beating around the bush and go full 4DVAR and none of this hybrid crap.

Yeah it was later in the day up here.

3F Congrats DENdy

Were they ever great?

It’s going to be a long winter with the FV3.