dendrite

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With deep snow and ice pack yes. It absolutely is . Suddenly I dropped to 49.5 now under sun and warmest of day. Lol

Temps fluctuate lol

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be due to leaf out then. In his defense I have that issue too for a time.

I think elevations are a little more anomalously warm today. 50.2° here and I have a 9v fan. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Sun contaminated obviously. Let’s see when shade hits it around 4

Lol

Your temp is always cooler than everyone else June and July but it’s sun contaminated in Feb and March?

Is there a more drastic difference in sensible weather for a specific date one year apart here than 3/31 1997 and 1998?

Warmest in New England right now? Wow.

47.3° tooorch

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

He won’t radiate like BDL

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell 4 days of 60’s

Maybe over a week above freezing there?

39.1° and deep blues. 

Drip baby drip. 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering a couple of things. 

one, will all this snow really be down to just piles in time.  That's only 6 days away and the specifics of the CMC/GFS/Euro ops offer enough clouds and mean frontal position headaches to perhaps level the melt potential some.  I mean, I've seen it approach 70 over a snow pack, sure. But that's with howling S gales and tons of steam rollin off the fields in firehose melt off that will be bare ground in a coffee break.  I'm not sure it is environmentally possible to put 80 F over a geographic pan dimensional cryosphere and keep it sunny, when heights are really only marginal for mid 80s.   There's kind of a 'absurdity limit'  lol.  

two, if so ... does this approach on te 10th/11th period possibly expose a flaw in these AI versions? ie., not defining or integrating that aspect of the environmental precondition.  For that matter, are we abundantly confidence the standard versions are doing that proficiently enough.  I suspect the answer's no on the AI's, anyway. They still illustrate like 1993 MRF runs with that larger fuzzy granularity.    That doesn't look like discrete systemic awareness really. 

Thing is... even the operational runs are bursting warm sector surge through all across those two days. The CMC with it's own 570+ dm plume now.   Probably just go with whatever model's most conservative with temperatures until the ground snow is much much less. 

I feel like the AIs are hitting some theoretical ceiling if the surface was bare and dry. That would make sense given the sun angle equivalent in fall for Oct 5-10 where records are in the mid/upper 80s in the warm spots.

But I think it’s safe to toss those readings. Slash 10°F off of those and you start getting closer to the op runs and highs from that 2/21/2018 record heat day. 

40s dews will do some damage. Especially with sun.

I will say that mesos were hitting that foggy/cloudy spot in the CRV in MA/CT for days indicated by a cool spot in the afternoon on the 2m temp progs. I was curious to see what that was going to look like if it was real….well voila.

25 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

What's the pack like?

21-22”

6.0”/0.61” final

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Although a lot of models are close.

AIGFS is almost like a kuchie clown at this point

AEMATT stealing my QPF again

kidding aside there’s some interesting runs from Ray to Scoot. 

6 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Lol, let's get warning criteria.  I think people around here are unaware they'll  wake up to snow to deal with.

I didn’t want to snowblow, but that’ll be a pain to remove by hand.

24.8° -SN

5.9”/0.60”

24.9° -SN

4.6”

Flakes are a bit rimed…maybe even a little refrozen. CC mix line is near CON, but that 1.3° tilt is showing a little lower CC overhead.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Have had 2 since Feb 24

Lips n hips?

APATT

persistence 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was not a coastal . There was nothing remotely resembling a coastal in that . It was a glorified warm front into a frigid dome . 

In 1885 if they got 20” with NE winds they’d be calling it a nor’easter. That’s all I implied. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I expect a few days of 50s to low 60s and then depending on how much the pack is ravaged we may pop a bigger day or two. 

Of course it could end up 38° here everyday while it’s 70° SOP

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s nothing to do with that . I honestly am highly skeptical of this long torch or 70’s. Nothing more nothing less 

I expect a few days of 50s to low 60s and then depending on how much the pack is ravaged we may pop a bigger day or two. 

18z skynets could be 20° too high and I’d still be thrilled

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s really the question… I mean, even if it fails at 60s or 70s… it’s still pretty mild at 50s.   It’s not like it’s going to be 38F instead of 65F.

It’s a defense mechanism like in December when he couldn’t imagine a snow event affecting him. Either he’s correct or pleasantly surprised.

He’s the weather equivalent of Red Sox fans for 86 years.