dendrite

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can feel the tension building. People just refreshing model runs in anticipation of that run to goon to.

Some are close to canceling winter before Thanksgiving. 

Kidding aside…it looks seasonably cool the next couple weeks with some upslope chances for NNE. But I’m not going to jump on the extended goofus train of wintry lows skimming under New England. I’m not worried about the 2m temps in Yellowknife yet.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a lot of warmth in Canada. Beware with a fast PAC flow 

Alberta torchah?

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Clipper fun on gfs

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

stay safe

What were those seasons relative to normal?

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Graupel shower with gusty winds through Ayer an hour or so ago.  Bouncing rattling particles with more frozen then liquid at one point. Some of the bigger pieces seemed to carry a bit in the wind, so it gave the affect as though it really wanted to flip.  Could see the curtains in the sky moving quickly by.  The sun was milked by anvil cirrus as it moved off ... low top convection-like.  But the freezing level/mix temp types were not far over head. 

First frozen of the season in the books!

Yup. I could see the snow curtains approaching here from the NW before it hit. 

Here how the euro trended valid 6z this morning. It sliced and diced mid level winds every run. 

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My choices were merely our averages:

Watches, did not track
Warnings, 5.6 (Median 6.0)
Biggest event, 14.8" (Median 13.5")
Checked all but CT/RI for pre-Dec 1.

I feel like you’re due for an old fashioned interior Maine snowy winter. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wasn’t home to see if frozen reached the ground. Felt some graupely type precip in Franklin.

Take that back. Getting a good graupel shower at home now. 

Wasn’t home to see if frozen reached the ground. Felt some graupely type precip in Franklin.

There’s multiple cold shots before Thanksgiving. But yeah…maybe warming up more near the 20th, but that’s 2 weeks away. 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Full boredom ahead. And a huge warmup 

Where are you getting your big warmup? Late month maybe.

4 minutes ago, klw said:

some light snow mixing in with rain here at 1200', 37f

Yeah there’s some showers coming this way…interested to see if there’s any frozen mixed in. 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea it was the worst short term fail . Dendrite nailed it

Not sure I really called anything. The only thing I didn’t like was that the peak of the wind was all overnight. We’ve had good wind at night before, but this was more of a quick in and out impulse. That and the models kept backing off on the 850/925 winds the past couple of days. It’s tough to mix down what isn’t there. 

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's so wrong in so many ways. I would say I have a 70% completion rate with  a 112 rating especially with the big ones.

All in fun. You have a pretty good track record for near range calls for up here. 

Def a boundary near the NH border. The 33s up north are snow.

41.7° no wind

We’re kinda wedged up here…may take awhile to mix down decent gusts. 

We take!

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We snow.

Yeah looks like there could be some decent accums in the slightly higher terrain in Coos and adjacent ME tonight. 

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve had a few NW flow deals that I can recall that really did some damage. There was one I think in Nov 2004. Heck in Jan this year we had one after fropa that did damage here. 

The first one you mentioned was over 20 years ago. I think you kinda proved my point.

I want to say there was a good one in early 06 too…Feb maybe?

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

How many congrats Dendrite?

13

10 from ginxy

Only 1 verifies

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not fraudulent, but there’s a reason high end is on the rare side especially inland. 

The W-NW CAA winds generally are. We can do 45-55mph no problem, but the >55kt stuff is rare. The westerly component doesn’t do as much tree damage either since the trees grow braced against that flow.

Give me a mixed down raging easterly LLJ over something this.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z should bring back the 5 mph that 00z lost . Looking solid 

This is more riveting than dew tracking

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pepper plants look to be on borrowed time now . Likely gone Monday night next week . What a run though May 6- Nov 10th

Might be toast this Fri AM.