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dendrite

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    Junorch obs and discussion 2026

    in New England

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years

    That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe

    This is somewhat odd

    Our continent just seems too wide for the global wavelengths in summer to be able to get one of your Sonoran airmasses up here before the “ridge runs out”. Get the ridge more on our side and the Bermuda high going and then the airmass just becomes GoM soup and we thermodynamically are limited on the warming potential…but we make up for it with 97/77 type days.

    We basically have to time it right with brief strong mixing like July 2011 when that prefrontal trough mixed out the dews during the morning and then the CAA lagged until evening so we had a 6hr window with torched mid levels, strong mixing, and downsloping.

    And obviously any flow from the east side of our meridien is tainted too. 

    • Like 6

    Junorch obs and discussion 2026

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, vortex95 said:

    I'm not too keen on persistent heat in the NEUS.  00Z ECMWF say no go.  The ridge axis is well to the W so that makes NEUS susceptible to BDFs/onshore flow/more clouds/pcpn.  GFS says yes to big heat tho but even that suggests it won't last.  Mean trough position near/along the E Coast has been tough to shake overall.
     

    There’s definitely a weakness there with the ridge axis that far west to sneak some north Atlantic stank our way. 00z euro op is definitely a way to taint the heat in our region…like you said. With that said…the ridging won out in early June so I won’t buy that yet. But we’ll be prone to backdoors or at least late digging s/w’s north of us that at least bring the dews down and moderate the heat. 

    I’ve actually been enjoying the last few days. As long as mins are well into the 50s I’m okay with daytime 70s…even for my heat loving plants. 

    Junorch obs and discussion 2026

    in New England

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there.     which way is your sarcasm pointing ?

    1.3" for the 2-day total here.  Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS.   Might clear at 5 o'clock ?

    The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out.  The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF?  not totally sure there. 

    General audience:  

    Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness.  This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence.  This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here.  If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery.  Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP.   The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this,

    image.png.cca96a4d5168416d40a9c23b8f561508.png

    So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place  LOL.   seems like that some times. 

    Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

    image.png.6f99dbbb0c63602423754904be3725cf.png

    Yeah it was sarcasm. I was still in D1 last week. 

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