96 had good ridging out ahead of it. Here we have a PV lobe dropping south of us suppressing the flow and the vort digs and amplifies last minute over the Carolinas. It tries late to pump some ridging back our way, but there’s less wiggle room for pulling something off.
But we’re still at the point where we can see significant changes at H5 that could drastically change the outcome so everything is still on the table.