SACRUS

86/70 and mostly clear. More low to mid 90s today and tomorrow. Friday looks like a stormy day and clear break in the heat streak, highs may be by way of midnight/overnight readings. Theme this July was Fay's rains (Friday 7/10), Fri (7/24) cloudy and showery, Fri 7/31 stormy. Saturday the storms are pulling away and we have to see how long clouds take to clear to determine if the warmer spots can tack on more 90s. Sunday another low is approaching from the west and W. AR pulses and expands west for a day or two. ECM has blast of >16c Sunday with 20c just south and east of the area. Could be another LI scorcher depending on clouds and rain. Warm and wet: Mon (8/2) through Thu (8/6) hung up pattern W. AR offshore with higher heights along the east coast, Rockies ridge and trough nearby into the GL/OV with waves of low pressure riding along the front. Pending on stegth of the WAR will see placement of the heaviest and persistent showers. Looks humid/ warm and wet with limited chances for 90s in this period. Beyond there the Rockies ridge should eject east and push more strong heat into the plains, GL and eventually the EC. Pending on the WAR, could see another very warm and hot period start the second week of August.

You wonder if Friday the 31st could spoil some month average records if temps are stuck up in the upper 70s or near 80 (like last Friday and 7/10, 716) and the daily is below avg.

Should get two more days of the 90s streak (ECM has 850s spiking to near 18c - 20c Wed PM into Thu AM) before storms and clouds Friday keep temps in the low 80s. Sat pending on clouds may get some of the warmer spots to 90.

7/28 LGA: 97 ISP: 95 EWR: 95 ACY: 95 TEB: 94 BLM: 94 JFK: 93 PHL: 93 NYC: 93 TTN: 92 New Brnswck: 92

Another clean sweep for all sites, core of the heat east in LI . QUeeNS 7/28 LGA: 97 ISP: 95 EWR: 95 ACY: 95 TEB: 94 BLM: 94 JFK: 93 PHL: 93 NYC: 93 TTN: 92 New Brnswck: 92

A few small storms popping in W/NW NJ

Peak 850s >21C moved through overnight and are over E sections of the area/ New England currently.

Noon roundup ISP: 94 LGA: 93 ACY: 92 BLM: 91 PHL: 90 JFK: 90 NYC: 90 TEB: 90 New Brnswck: 90 EWR: 90 TTN: 89

11AM Roundup (clouds not an issue so far as they head east beyond PA they dissipate) ISP: 92 LGA: 91 ACY: 91 TTN: 90 JFK: 90 TEB: 89 BLM: 89 New Brnswck: 89 EWR: 89 PHL: 88 NYC: 87

Clouds in CPA teetering into NW-NJ but some are burning off and dissipating. Does look like there will be more clouds reaching the area by noon.

That position of the WAR will be key on focus of the consistent almost daily storms or deluges or if/when it pushes far enough west would force rain into PA/NYS/OV. The 12z guidance had the WAR further NW and the 00z went east and now showing much more rain next week 8/2 - 8/7.

Jul 90 (+) degree days; Monthly departure / monthly avg EWR: 2020 (so far): 14 / 80.5 / +3.3 2019: 14 / 80.6 / + 3.3 2018: 9 / 78.2 / +0.9 2017: 9 / 77.3 / +0 2016: 16 / 79.9 / +2.6 2015: 13 / 79.1 / +1.7 2014: 8 / 77 / -.3 2013: 15 / 80.9 / +3.6 2012: 16 / 80.8 / +3.5 2011: 22 / 82.7 / +5.4 2010: 21 / 82.3 / +5.0 LGA: 2020 (so far): 17 / 82.5 / +5 2019: 14 / 81.5 / +4.0 2018: 10 / 79.8 / +2.3 2017: 8 / 78.1 / +0.6 2016: 15 / 81.1 / +3.6 2015: 6 / 79.2 / +1.7 2014: 3 / 77.1 / -0.5 2013: 15 / 81.2 / +3.7 2012: 13 / 80.4 / +2.9 2011: 13 / 80.4 / +2.9 2010: 18 / 82.8 / + 5.3

10 AM - beach days ISP: 90 LGA: 89 ACY: 89 EWR: 88 BLM: 88 JFK: 88 TTN: 87 TEB: 87 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 85

87/71. Off a low of 75 here. Some clouds about 90 mins but are dissipating as the head east. Enough launching pad and storms holding off till later will continue the 90s streak with more mid 90s today where its clear. Wed and Thu again looks to see low/mid 90s with 850 temps >16c - 19C. Thu. At this time in most spots Fri and Sat look (like last week) to break the streak although in the warmer spots we could see a few 90s. ECM continues to show a quick surge of strong heat as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west on Sunday (8/2 - 8/3) Monday. Humid and storms likely those days to watch timing. Beyond there 8/3 - 8/9: Warm and humid with plenty of storm chances withstrpng Rockies Ridge / trough into the MW/GL and WAR nearby. Pending on strength and position of the W. AR and the Rockies ridge begins to migrate east into the Plains and OV may be closer to 8/7-8 before more sustained heat arrives. Before that sprinkled upper 80s low 90s with plenty of humidity. If we can get on the N/NW flow perhaps a day or two near or below normal. Warm and wet theme by way of heavy rains not conistent rains.

Midnight at the oasis. 850MB temp surge may have happened a bit too late for the peak heat as 850s are near 21c now. LGA: 89 EWR: 86 NYC: 86 TEB: 85 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 82 JFK: 82 ISP: 82

2016 warm water article, that also references 2011 https://www.nj.com/weather/2016/08/nj_ocean_temperature_heats_up_to_record_level.html https://pressofatlanticcity.com/news/why-the-water-off-the-jersey-shore-is-the-warmest-its-ever-been/article_489d6142-5fbb-11e6-9b89-f7d4137d245a.html

Storms and bank of clouds moving into W-PA some scattered storms jumping ahead of the line into C/E PA. Timing of this line would be early Tue. Perhaps clouds and storms may muddy up 90s tomorrow. Will see if the storms hold.

7/27 LGA: 97 EWR: 96 ISP: 95 TEB: 95 BLM: 95 PHL: 95 ACY: 94 TTN: 94 JFK: 94 NYC: 93 New Brnswck: 93

7/27 LGA: 97 EWR: 96 ISP: 95 TEB: 95 BLM: 95 PHL: 95 ACY: 94 TTN: 94 JFK: 94 NYC: 93 New Brnswck: 93

Cant post the satellite loop but still a counter clockwise rotation to clouds with high clouds coming out of the NW. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Noon Roundup: TEB: 92 LGA: 92 JFK: 92 EWR: 91 TTN: 91 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 90 PHL: 90 NYC: 89 BLM: 87

85/68 at 9:30. NE to SW almost circular rotation to the clouds but overall winds out of the SW/WSW. Hottest day of the year (so far) look on tap today. 850s are peaking this pm and evening to near 21 - 22C. Lots of 95(+) and possible 100 near LGA / EWR metro locations. Looks hot and humid Tue but storms may e present by the early afternoon or later PM. With enough sun some places will exceed the 95(+) range especially with a high launch pad. May see some lows at record highest minimums for dailys or greater. Thu and Fri now look to be in the low 90s, ECM spikes 850s Thu near >18C. Weekend looks closer to noraml may sneak in some 90 / low 90s in the hot spots NE-NJ/LGA etc. Beyond there. warm (to hot at times) and wet pattern as WAR keeps east cast above normal with higher heights but US ridge back west to the Rockies creating trough into the Midwest and weakness and fronts that could be close by or get hung up. ECM does have another day or two of strong heat on Aug 2 - Aug 4th ahead of front. Need to watch the Tropics as WAR will be pulsing west at time but any storm could find weakness and push towards the EC otherwise FL/GOM threat.

10PM LGA: 91 EWR: 86 NYC: 85 TEB: 83 JFK: 82

Rockies Ridge, Trough into the MW/GL and WAR close by / expanding west at times keeping EC warm to hot. Warm/wet opening to August. Tropics could add to recent excess rainfalls.

JULY 90(+) days last 10 years. 2020 will be at or in top 3 of last 10 years of 90 degree days. EWR: 2020 (so far): 13 2019: 14 2018: 9 2017: 9 2016: 16 2015: 13 2014: 8 2013: 15 2012: 16 2011: 22 2010: 21 LGA: 2020 (so far): 15 2019: 14 2018: 10 2017: 8 2016: 15 2015: 6 2014: 3 2013: 15 2012: 13 2011: 13 2010: 18