SACRUS

Mostly sunny and looking like one of those nuttin but blue skies days.  

The cut off scenario looking more likely for next week so one past Saturday cooler and unsettled 5/17 - 5/21 before any chance of sustained warmth and the season's first 90s.  That looks more possible towards the last week of May (Memorial Day). 

Lows of 31 and 30 Fri night/Sat night (Sun am).  Currently mostly sunny and 51 here.  It  does look like a good area of clouds pushing in from PA, hope we can clear that up a it  as it  moves through.

May 14th tipping point to a more normal / warmer pattern.  Will need to see how stormy it gets Thu - Sun.  Sun out should yield second or first 80s for most.  Still looks potentially cut-off-ish towards early the following week 5/19.  Does look more active and with numerous troughs goig into the west coast.  So dont see a prolonged cool down or warmup staying dry...  More normal overall.

6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What would you estimate the odds are of warmer weather?  Cutoff implies bdcf?

Id say at this point its too early but perhaps the tendency is to lean on the cooler/wetter scenario.  I think true sustained warmth and any  heat may be towards Memorial day weekend or early June.

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Just give me temps in the 70's for now, we can turn on the oven Memorial Day weekend.

Last weekend's oasis of warmth seemed so long ago.  Agreed on the 70s but Ill take the upper 50s/low 60s  with sun tomorrow and enjoy it :-).  I guess i brought the cooler weather when returning from a winter on the wc easter weekend.  

Slowly transitioning out of the severely below normal cool regime this week and back into the 60s / 70s with sunshine.  And longer range beyond  next weekend its either cutoff city or fist shot at 90s as deep trough looks to push into the west coast on Guidance.  Will be interesting to see how it evolves. 

Down to 31 last night.  Brisk and windy early March day outside.

72 here  clouds approaching now into NW -NJ

Looks like a solid 10 days of below to much below normal ahead of the next warmup on/around 5/14.

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models could be too quick to break down the pattern but as of now there's hints of warmer weather near or just after mid May. 

A lot of morning cloud debris could make 80F out of reach, will be close. 

80 is toast.  Mostly cloudy through noon and much of the afternoon.  Still a nice day overall.  The cool period looking dry but i woudlnt bet on it.  Id expect things becoming wetter as we go through the next 10 days.

See how things progress but potentially looking like the next multiple day warmup to and above normal  on/around 5/14.

Not sure we will hit the high end of projected highs but should things clear a bit 80 not out of reach.  Cant add the loop (cached on may 1) 

Beauty out there 68 so far.  Back into the dinginess next 10 days.  Looking like till later part of May for a  possible transition into less troughing in the east.  2008 feel to me, ended the cool with a resounding heatwave.  

On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, SACRUS said:

 

A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat.  Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet.  Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit.  2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June.

A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

read above.   -NAO, -EPO pattern for awhile.       Meanwhile today is shaping up to be nice-sunny and low 60's here

Last nights runs showed more of the same overall trough into the east with a day or two of transient warmth towards or slightly above normal the next 10 days to 2 weeks..  Still thinking  into the first week of May we return back to a warmer pattern, more a bit of sustained umph...

Brief reprieve from the recent cool Sun (upper 60s) and Tues (near 70) before more cool unsettled weather Wed - Fri. .  Troughing looks to linger into late April. Think it may take till on/around May 4 to see more sustained warmth into the area.

9:41

60 here.

About an inch on the grass 0.41 in the bucket.   

Cool looking sat loop (real-time)

33/32 here mod snow .5 on the ground

Through Nov 8th departures

EWR: -3.6
NYC: -2.5
LGA: -2.9
JFK:  -2.8
ISP: -2.8
TTN:  -5.3

Look to add to these negatives through the 18th then moderation 11/18 - 11/23-24ish before next cold period to end the month.   Looking like a lock for a -3 or colder month for many,

Down to 19 - coldest temp since March 7th here. .

Partial Clearing into C-PA now looks to get here by 3. Rain ends between 1 and 2.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html

hauling and through MD/DE and almost SNJ.

Yesterday more sunny than forecasted and today more cloudy

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html