SACRUS

6/27 12 Euro / 18z GFS

Honing in on the timing of the front and any lingering showers Sunday will be key.  But Heat looks to kick in Thu (6/30) peak Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the front.  Storms/front Sat evening into Sunday.  clearing Sunday pm - cooler - near normal.  The fourth looks mainly dry and warm mid - upper 80s, stray shot at 90 in the hot spots.  Could be popup shower. Overall, Fri-Sat / Mon the best days Sat evening / Sunday cloud / storms.  Sunday depends on timing of the front could be similar to today 6 hours advanced meaning it could clear by 3pm

6/27 00Z Euro / 06z GFS

 Heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend.  850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival.  

The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning.  Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes.  Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal.  4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal).  Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there.  By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7).  A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week. 

Front moving through, some scattered storms/showers but not much in the way of rain totals outside some isolated areas, with heavier widespread storms north into NYC and NEw England.  Down towards normal and a little below after the front later tonight (6/27), Tue (6/28) and before warmup starts Wed (6/29).  Most spots will be just shy of the 90 mark but perhaps a quick start for the hotter spots if no clouds or storms as warm push comes through.  For those that didnt start the heat , the hat trick and seasons first heatwave commences Thu (6/30) to close June and open the long weekend.  850s >16c by Thu (6/30), then >18c Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) ahead of the cold front. Perhaps a mid 90s and some upper 90s in the warm spots Fri and Sat, pending on clouds arrival.  

The front comes through Sat evening and into Sunday (7/3) morning.  Could be some decent rains in the storms as it looks now, we shall see how it goes.  Should see clearing out Sunday and cooler down towards normal.  4th looks mainly dry and warm (near normal).  Wouldnt rule out a spotty showere here and there.  By Tue (7/5) it looks like we could see the warm spots grab 90 or near 90 and continue Wed (7/6) and Thu (7/7).  A bit out there but it looks like the Florida kinda setup warm-hot but possible shower/pop storms type of pattern the middle of next week.  

6/26 12Z:

Euro: continues with a hot Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2) with front passing late evening and into Sun (7/3)  Front clears through, Euro still shows some spotty showers/tstorms on the Fourth but it looks mainly dry as of today.

GFS: continues with Heat Thu - Sat PM with quicker passage of the front Sat evening into Sun Am.  Clear by Sunday evening and a dry / warm fourth of July.  

We'll see how we go it is a matter of the front and how quickly and offshore it can get. 

6/26

EWR: 94
LGA: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
BLM: 90
New Brnswck: 90
NYC: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
ACY: 87
JFK: 84
 

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2022:

PHL: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 4; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 4 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:2 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
BLM: 6 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 )

89 Degree Days:

NYC: 2
TEB: 1
PHL: 1
New Brsnswk: 1`
ACY: 1
JFK: 1
TTN: 1
ISP: 1

 

 

 

6/26

EWR: 94
LGA: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
BLM: 90
New Brnswck: 90
NYC: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
ACY: 87
JFK: 84
 

2PM Roundup 

EWR: 93
LGA: 91
NYC: 89
TEB: 89
PHL: 89
New Brnswck: 88
ACY: 87
TTN: 86
ISP: 84
JFK: 84

6/26 00z EURO : Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations.  Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3).  Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather.   Sunday (7/3) would be the stormy not so beachy day.

GFS similar theme moves the front through slowly on Sunday (7/3) and clear out for a gorgeous July 4th.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark is on track for another 95°+ high temperature today. So Newark currently has 5 days of 95°+. This is the 2nd highest on record by June 25th. But this is the first of the years with no heatwave by June 25th. The first heatwave could finally arrive between June 30th and July 2nd if the Euro is correct.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 25	First Heatwave
1	1988-06-25	6	6-12 to 6-16
-	1984-06-25	6	6-7 to 6-11
2	2022-06-25	5	0
-	2021-06-25	5	6-5 to 6-9
-	1994-06-25	5	6-17 to 6-19
-	1987-06-25	5	5-29 to 6-1
-	1945-06-25	5	6-14 to 6-18

Show how strong that heat from the Plains/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central Gulf was.  Only the strong blocking buffeted the sustained version of that into the region.  Great stats as always BW.  The record heat in Europe and Gulf coast that hit this year had also tied or beat records in years where we were very cool /wet in June.  We'll see where July takes us. Stormy or more dry and brief heat interludes or more sustained pieces coming east.

Another hot one on tap with more low / mid 90s perhaps one of the hotter spots in Central / Northeast NJ can top 97.  Front arrives overnight into Mon (6/27).  We'll see how much we can score from showers and storms, it had looked like a possible soaker earlier. 

Beyond there, cooler Tuesday (6/28) and warming 6/29 (likely uppers 80s shy of 90 but outside chance of one of the hotter spots can start a 90 stretch). 

Thu (6/30) June closes hot with the start of the seasons first heat wave/ hat trick, for most, especially in the heat locations.  Fri (7/1) and Sat (7/2) heat peaks we see >18c 850s perhaps near 20C before a cold front comes through Saturday overnight (7/2) into Sunday (7/3).  Models have a kinder, drier and sunnier July 4th now, with 80s and great weather. 

Beyond that (7/5)- guidance a bit hazy as to weather (whether) the Rockies ridge build and sends trough and frequent storms into the north east or the flow and heights are a bit flatter and we are warm with storm chances and pieces of heat come east by 7/6-7/8.  Time will tell.

Hot in the city today.

4th Of July:  12Z Euro has front coming through Sat (7/2) night into Sun (7/3) after heat Thu (6/30) - Sat (7/2). Euro now with storms on the 4th as well with front slow to pass through.  WIll see how it progresses. 18Z GFS much drier for the fourth with the brunt of the storms Sat evening / Sun morning.

6/25

EWR: 96
New Brnswck: 92
TEB: 91
PHL: 91
NYC: 90
ACY: 90
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
TTN: 89
BLM: 89
JFK: 88
 

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2022:

PHL: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 3 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 5 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 2; Jul : ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:2 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 5 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 2 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 5 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 2; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
BLM: 5 (Apr: 0; May: 3 ; Jun: 2 )

89 Degree Days:

NYC: 1
TEB: 1
PHL: 1
New Brsnswk: 1`
ACY: 1
JFK: 1
TTN: 1
ISP: 1

 

 

-

6/25

EWR: 96
New Brnswck: 92
TEB: 91
PHL: 91
NYC: 90
ACY: 90
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
TTN: 89
BLM: 89
JFK: 88
 

Noon ROundup
 

EWR: 90
TEB: 88
BLM: 87
New Brnswck: 87
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
TTN: 85
LGA: 85
ACY: 84
 

11AM ROundup:

EWR: 88
JFK: 86
New Brnswck: 86
ISP: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 83
ACY: 83
PHL: 83
TTN: 82

NYC: 81

Past Junes EWR 90 degree days.  EWR should be 5 by the 30th much in line with the past 12 years excluding 2010 and last year.

June:
2021 : 13
2020: 5
2019: 4
2018: 5
2017: 5
2016: 3
2015: 4
2014: 2
2013: 4
2012: 6
2011: 4
2010: 13

10AM roundup

EWR: 86
JFK: 84
ISP: 82
New Brnswck: 82
BLM: 82
TEB: 81
PHL: 80
ACY: 80
LGA: 79
TTN: 79
NYC: 78

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprised it hasn't been wetter with that trough near us...we've lucked out in that regard.

Could pick up a decent soaker on Monday (6/27) for the area with the front coming through. 

Mostly sunny and temps pushing or already 80 in spots.

4th of July :  06Z 6/25 GFS has cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) setting up a nice Monday 4th of July. while the 6/25 00z  ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July.  Will need to work out those details/timing. 

60 hours of some heat with many areas getting into the low 90s today and Sun (6/26).  Front comes through early enough Monday (6/27) to spoil the hat trick (heat wave) for many.  Friday came close to starting one in many places but tipped out in the upper 80s.  Cooler Tue (6/28) - Wed (6/29) before the seasons first official heatwave looks likely, especially for the hot spots sas we end June and open the long July 4th weekend.  850 temps look to range >16c by Thu Jun 30th and >18c Fri Jul 1st and Sat Jul 2nd.  

4th of July : GFS gas cool front clearing through Sat night (7/2) into Sun (73) while the ECM is slower and arrives Sun (7/3) lingering into the 4th of July.  Will need to work out those details/timing.  Beyond there its looking like another blast of the western furnace is on tap by the 7th.  First 10 days of July look normal / bas above normal with opportunity for >3 days of 90+ on the current guidance.

Euro a bit warmer/hot now the weekend with extension into Jul 4th, GFS a bit cooler but warm / seasonal normal overall the weekend and into the 4th.   Will hone in as we get closer.

Warmer / hottter times ahead this weekend into Monday.  90s for many, especially the hot spots Sat (6/25) and Sun (6/26).  Some mid 90s in Sunday in the NE-NJ / C corridor.  Trough pushes front through on Mon (6/27) with rain showers/storms lingering into Tuesday (6/28).   Cooler/near normal by Wed (6/29).

Warmup begins as heights rise to close Jun 6/30, with heat potential to start the long weekend and perhaps into July 4th.  Beyond there we'll see how strong or hung up the front gets in the 7/5 timeframe.

On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  

 

Year....21..20...19...18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93
 EWR:.84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97
 LGA:...79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92
 TTN:...79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92
 JFK:...75..85....97...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96
 NYC:..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95

Latest guidance 

Euro has heat just prior to the Jul 4th for the Fri-Sun (weekend 7/1-7/3) then a bit cooler but overall drier look for the 4th.

GFS less hot more normal looking.