SACRUS

Wed - Fri much warmer with shot at 90s especially in the warmer spots more likely Thu/ Fri.  Fri transition with strong cold front timing key on highs. 

Labor Day Weekend - another 48 hour cool down  Sat (9/5) and Sun (9/6) half of next (Labor) weekend before warmth builds back in Labor day  (Mon 9/7) as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west.  Strong trough into the GL / MW with strong ridging along the coast.  Cooler air will likely continue to come on short intervals through mid month with the coolest readings west of the area.  

Way beyond the GL and MW trough looks to move out as western ridging is displaced east by strong trough into the PNW.  Western Atlantic Ridge looks nearby the EC expanding west into the NE / then SE.    Tropics active 9/7 - 9/13

74 /52 northwest breeze and sensational outside.   Two days of this drier / pleasant weather before warmer air returns Tue (9/1) with rain as we transition to SW flow.  Wed - Fri much warmer with shot at 90s especially in the warmer spots more likely Thu/ Fri.  Fri transition with strong cold front timing key on highs. 

Labor Day Weekend - another 48 hour cool down  Sat (9/5) and Sun (9/6) half of next (Labor) weekend before warmth builds back in Labor day  (Mon 9/7) as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west.  Strong trough into the GL / MW with strong ridging along the coast.  Cooler air will likely continue to come on short intervals through mid month with the coolest readings west of the area.  

Way beyond the GL and MW trough looks to move out as western ridging is displaced east by strong trough into the PNW.  Western Atlantic Ridge looks nearby the EC expanding west into the NE / then SE.    Tropics active 9/7 - 9/13

8/29

LGA: 84
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 83
TEB: 83
ACY: 81
PHL: 81
TTN: 81
NYC: 81
ISP: 79
JFK: 79
BLM: 78

15 hours ago, mattinpa said:

I hope it is right. Haven’t had many breaks this summer. I am not sure the warm pattern lasts past mid month. And at least then, even warmer days have less 90s potential. 

Ridging looks to hold over the area especially the coast the first week or so with brief cooler intrusions. I think ridging will work east  from the Rockies towards later in the second half of the month throghout the EC with more troughs coming into the WC.

78/72 and light rain.  0.16 in the bucket last 12 hours.  The majority of the rain showers and storms should slowly move out over the next few hours.  Some breaks in the clouds already to C and E - PA.  Some gorgeous weather Sunday (8/30) and Mon (8/31)  Drier and cooler with highs near 80s some 50s inland perhaps.  The Western Atlantic Ridge expands west  and builds into the classic Bermida high position as Warmth returns starting on Tues (9/1) and while guidance isnt as war,m as it was previous runs it still looks like 90s potential in the Wed (9/2) to Fri  (9/4)  before another brief 2 day cool down Labor Day weekend.

Beyond there EC ridging looks to establish towards 9/8 with trough pushing into the mid section.  Could see some heavy rain totals west of the region as ridging builds along the coast. Tropical threat FL / EC 9/8 - 9/13.

8/28

ACY: 91
PHL: 90
EWR: 89
LGA: 89
TTN: 88
BLM: 87
TEB: 87
New Brnswck: 87
ISP: 86
NYC: 85

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 36 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug:  10; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 31  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 17  ; Aug: 9  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 28 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 17 ; Aug: 7; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 34 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 19  ; Aug: 10; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 30 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 9 ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 26 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug: 8 ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 4 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 13 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug:2 ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 30(April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 16; Aug: 10  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   28

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 9
ACY: 3
TEB: 8
LGA: 8
TTN: 4
EWR: 4
PHL: 4
BLM: 6
JFK:2
NYC: 3
ISP: 2

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8/28

ACY: 91
PHL: 90
EWR: 89
LGA: 89
TTN: 88
BLM: 87
TEB: 87
New Brnswck: 87
ISP: 86
NYC: 85

By the start of the month the Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west in the more classic Bermuda high position and Tue (9/1) we are warming up.  Wed (9/2) - Fri (9/5) next heatwave and shot at 90s potential before another brief cool down the first half of the labor day weekend.  Beyond there warmer air looks to return by labor day (9/7) and the subsequent week.  Tropics need to be watched in this period 9/9 - 913 EC / FL.  WAR nearby expanding west in spurts , WC ridge pushing into the plains and should set the stage for a very warm period in September.

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Max  Temperature
1	1955	14	100
2	2020	13	97
-	1999	13	101
3	2012	11	101
4	2010	10	103
4	1995	10	103

Warmer / more humid flow lots of WV capping temps and keeping overall warmth these past years.  Still wonder if there isnt a rogue triple digit looming in early September.

76/67.  0.77 rain yesterday morning (0.14 / .53 evening) missed the worst which was north f this area.  Late summer heat and humidity today with more storms arriving later and that timing will determine how widespread 90s are today.  Gloomy start to the weekend with rain and storms Saturday (8/29).  Dryer and very nice Sunday (8/30) and Monday (8/31) similar to Wednesday (8/26) weather. 

By the start of the month the Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west in the more classic Bermuda high position and Tue (9/1) we are warming up.  Wed (9/2) - Fri (9/5) next heatwave and shot at 90s potential before another brief cool down the first half of the labor day weekend.  Beyond there warmer air looks to return by labor day (9/7) and the subsequent week.  Tropics need to be watched in this period 9/9 - 913 EC / FL.  WAR nearby expanding west in spurts , WC ridge pushing into the plains and should set the stage for a very warm period in September.

8/27

LGA: 94
EWR: 94
PHL: 93
ACY: 93
ISP: 92
JFK: 92
TTN: 92
TEB: 92
BLM: 91
New Brnswck: 91
NYC: 90

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 35 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug:  9; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 31  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 17  ; Aug: 9  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 28 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 17 ; Aug: 7; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 34 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 19  ; Aug: 10; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 29 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 8 ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 26 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug: 8 ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 4 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 13 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug:2 ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 30(April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 16; Aug: 10  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   28

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 9
ACY: 3
TEB: 8
LGA: 7
TTN: 4
EWR: 3
PHL: 4
BLM: 6
JFK:2
NYC: 3
ISP: 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clean sweep

8/27

LGA: 94
EWR: 94
PHL: 93
ACY: 93
ISP: 92
JFK: 92
TTN: 92
TEB: 92
BLM: 91
New Brnswck: 91
NYC: 90

Summer breeze turning into summer gusts,  up to 22 MPH Feels good

2PM Roundup

ACY: 92
EWR: 91
LGA: 91
PHL: 90
New Brnswdk: 90
TTN: 89
BLM: 88
TEB: 88
NYC: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 84

DT up to 68 here an rising.

By Tue 9/1 Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding back west as we are warming back . The next 90s look to arrive between 9/2 and 9/5 before brief cool down Labor day.  ECm has 850s >16c starting next Wed (9/2).  The W.A.R looks close by and expanding west again towards 9/9 with sustained ridging into the east which should bring continued warmth / above temps with additional 90s potential especially in the warmer spots..  Tropics look more of a threat to SE coast in that period.

74/67.  early morning showers and clouds clearing out.  Dewpoints on the rise.   36 hours of some late summer heat with storm chances tonight and and Friday.  Hotter spots mid to perhaps upper 90s today and tomorrow maxing out in low to perhaps mid 90s.  Storms and cloud the only caveat.  Saturday looks like a wet day with front near by and Laura's remnants tracking through the DelMarVa area. Sunday (8/30) and Mon (8/31) we dry out and cool off similar to Wed with highs in upper 70s low 80s.

By Tue 9/1 Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding back west as we are warming back . The next 90s look to arrive between 9/2 and 9/5 before brief cool down Labor day.  ECm has 850s >16c starting next Wed (9/2).  The W.A.R looks close by and expanding west again towards 9/9 with sustained ridging into the east which should bring continued warmth / above temps with additional 90s potential especially in the warmer spots..  Tropics look more of a threat to SE coast in that period.

8/26

ACY: 84
PHL: 83
EWR: 82
JFK: 81
BLM: 81
TTN: 80
New Brnswck: 80
ISP: 79
LGA: 79
TEB: 78
NYC: 77

72 / 54 off a low of 60.  What a gorgeous day!  Cooler air for the next 17..16.15 hours before heat returns tomorrow. Highs may reach 95(+) in the hotter spots but likely wont exceed season maxes.  Friday more heat as Laura should approach the east coast Saturday PM.  Pending on clouds and rain, Saturday sneaky warm if enough sun shines through.

Cooldown Sun (8/30) and Mon (8/31) similar to today upper 70s and cooler nights. By Tue (9/1) we are warming up towards and above normal with heat and the next shot at 90s arriving 9/3 - 9/7 time frame (Labor Day weekend) with Western Atlantic Ridge expanding west along the Mid Atlantic and NE coasts. 

Beyond there the W.A.R looks anchored off the east coast with trough building down into the plain and MW.  Could see hung up fronts west of the area with warmer east coast.  Ridging looks sustained into the second week of next month.  Tropics still need to keep an eye as flow around the Bermuda high which is displaced north  could aim storms FL / EC.

8/25

LGAL 93
EWR: 92
JFK: 92
ACY: 91
ISP: 91
BLM: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 89
NYC: 89
 

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 34 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug:  8; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 30  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 17  ; Aug: 8  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 27 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 17 ; Aug: 6; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 33 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 19  ; Aug: 9; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 28 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 7 ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 25 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug: 7 ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 19 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 3 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 12 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 1 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 7 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug:1 ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 289(April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 16; Aug: 9  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   27

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 9
ACY: 3
TEB: 8
LGA: 7
TTN: 4
EWR: 3
PHL: 4
BLM: 6
JFK:2
NYC: 3
ISP: 2

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8/25

LGAL 93
EWR: 92
JFK: 92
ACY: 91
ISP: 91
BLM: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 89
NYC: 89
 

84/70.  Sunny and warm.  More 90s today likely ahead of the cold front / storms.  Northerly flow Wed keeps the heat away for 12 - 18 hours before hot SW flow returns  on Thu and brings in stronger 95(=) heat potential and maybe some record highs - well modeled in advance. With Laura nowlikely further south and west and remnants not impacting the EC till later Fri night/ Sat, Fri should see low to mid 90s as well.  Outside chance if Laura stays well south that Saturday is sneaky warm. 

Cool down Sun (8/30) - Tue (9/1) before we warm things up Wed (9/2). The next shot at 90s looks like a 1 - 2 day window the middle/end of next week 9/3 - 9/5.  

Longer range ridging looks to setup along the EC towards mid month.

Labor Day tropical risk shofts to the EC

8/24

LGA: 93
EWR: 93
ACY: 92
TEB: 92
PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 91
NYC: 90
BLM: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 88
JFK: 88

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 33 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug:  7; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 29  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 17  ; Aug: 7  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 27 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 17 ; Aug: 6; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 32 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 19  ; Aug: 8; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 27 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 6 ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 24 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug: 6 ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 19 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 3 ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 11 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 6 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 6 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 28 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 16; Aug: 8  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   26

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 9
ACY: 3
TEB: 8
LGA: 7
TTN: 3
EWR: 3
PHL: 4
BLM: 6
JFK:2
NYC: 2
ISP: 2

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8/24

LGA: 93
EWR: 93
ACY: 92
TEB: 92
PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 91
NYC: 90
BLM: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 88
JFK: 88