SACRUS

EWR cell  approaching

to 83 ahead of clouds and showers now.  

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

well this is showing below average rainfall and then add it in with the well above average 90 degree days and you see how dry things can get. 

My bad i read that as 90 degree day departures.  Lets look at that map Aug 11th

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that's 90 day precip

Thanks i read too quick - lol

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

looks like my 7 day heatwave is likely to come to an end today...but keeping my fingers cross we can get enough sun to get there

78 / 74 here and some brightening skies but think clearing isnt long enough to push 90, we'll wee.  THe wetter prior two days also hindering.  Tomorrow one day heat this week and perhaps into the following week.

14 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

more appropriate....90 days

 

Not sure how this is calculated but EWR, PHL, TTN, New brnswck all above th average # 90 degree days through AUg 3

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. We’ll get some more 90s but the upper 90s are probably gone. My max for the season was 96 last Thursday, which is about normal for my summer max temp. 

Could see some 96-97 tomorrow in the warm spots.  Its probably the highest mas through 8/14 and maxes come down but would never rule out a day or two of stronger heat later past the mid month period.

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

WPC 7-10" next 7 days in much of NJ on their3AM products. PRE seems in the mix somewhere between northern NYS to DE. Result: lots of flooding beyond the Debby 5 day impacts se USA (ie late this week or coming weekend). No more watering needed for a while.

 

Wantage (this part) 1.44 on Fri and about 0.7 yesterday.  imo, HRRR is not responding well to its supposed convection advantage, until a little too late, though it has had Monday evening pegged since yesterday (48 hr product).  RGEM HRDPS are worthy of reviewing for big clusters and of course the SPC HREF, where I pay attention to the max bullseye.  

If you want a thread for the potency ahead, go for it or let me know.  For now, I want to wait til late today at the earliest.  NHC still not talking flooding in the mid-Atlantic-ne USA.

Added all 00z/4 guidance: WPC 7 day total,  The GEFS prob for flooding rain and the ECMWF EFI (extreme forecast signal-prob looks pretty high just south of NYC)... all modeling suggesting pockets serious east coast flooding potential NYC down I95 into the se USA. Use the legends for your advantage. Have a day. 641A/4

 

Id vote this warrants its own thread - we could be on Floyd/Irene level flooding with some of the more severe forecasts being modeled.

Rainfall amounts > 6 inches starting to ring of Irene and Floyd flooding levels. Talking strictly rainfall and flooding not track or storm / wind, surge etc

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the pattern is becoming wet enough that the 100° heat and warmest part of the summer is behind us now. 

Certainly for the next 10 days f not till next year once we get passed Monday.   2006 had the deluges and still had heat and you wonder if that western furnace comes east after mid month.  We'll need a 3 week period to dry out.  

Good thing we had some "drier" under performing weeks.  Even if half of this falls - its an excessive rainfall

76 / 72 and 1.59 in the bucket yesterday. Cloudy and more storms later today, perhaps some breaks in the clouds but mostly cloudy keeping it in the mid 80s. Driest and sunniest day tomorrow and the hottest day for the next week to 10 days.   Mid to upper 90s in the warm spots.   By Tue  showers and storms return but remaining warm / humid clouds keeping it in the mid - upper 80s and a few stray 90 readings. Wed (8/7) - Sat (8/10)  very wet with tropical moisture and remnants of Debby meandering around the Southeast slowly creeping north as its blocked from the Atlantic Ridge expanding west.  Track of Debby and its remnants could lead to >5 inches of rain by Sunday.   Heat is capped till mid month when western ridge and heat expand east with next hot signal towards / after mid month.

1.54 inches here today.  

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2006)
NYC: 97 (2005)
LGA: 100 (2006)
JFK:  99 (2006)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)/
NYC: 55 (1927)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK:  56 (1964)

HIstorical:

1885 - A tornado hit Philadelphia and Camden along its eight mile path. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Hurricane Celia struck the coast of Texas producing wind gusts to 161 mph at Corpus Christi, and estimated wind gusts of 180 mph at Arkansas Pass. The hurricane was the most destructive of record along the Texas coast causing 454 million dollars damage, and also claimed eleven lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A severe thunderstorm moved across Cheyenne, WY, during the mid afternoon. The thunderstorm produced hailstones up to two inches in diameter causing more than 37 million dollars damage. The eastern U.S. sweltered in the heat. A dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Paducah KY with a reading of 102 degrees. Beckley WV established an all- time record with an afternoon high of 93 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from the Central High Plains to the Upper Great Lakes Region. Thunderstorms around Fort Collins, CO, produced wind gusts to 74 mph along with marble size hail. Sixteen persons were injured in the storm, most of whom were accidently locked out of their office building, having evacuated it when the fire alarm went off, apparently triggered by lightning. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Chantal drenched Wichita, KS, with 2.20 inches of rain in four hours during the early morning. Thunderstorms developing in Minnesota produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Baudette during the afternoon, and softball size hail at Lake Kabetogama, during the evening. Jamestown, ND, reported a record hot afternoon high of 103 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2024:

PHL: 28 (Apr: 1 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 9 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 3  ; Sep: )
EWR: 29  (Apr:  ; May: 1 ; Jun: 11  ; Jul: 14; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
TTN:  24 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 8 ; Jul: 13  ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
LGA: 18 (Apr:  ; May:   ; Jun: 6; Jul : 9 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
ACY: 20  (Apr:  ; May: 1 ; Jun: 7 ; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep:  )
TEB: 26 (Apr:  ; May: 1 ; Jun : 8  ; Jul: 14  ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
NYC:  18 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 6 ; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
JFK: 5 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 2; Jul:  1; Aug: 2 ; Sep:  )
ISP: 6  (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: 1; Sep: )

New Brunswick: 26 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 8; Jul:  15 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )
BLM:  17 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 7 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: )

89 Degree Days:

New Brnswck: 2
ACY: 5
EWR: 6
PHL: 4  2
TEB: 1
LGA: 3
NYC: 5
JFK:  2
TTN: 1

 

 

Highs 8/3

Highs:

EWR: 94
New Brnswck: 93
NYC: 93
PHL: 93
TEB: 92
LGA: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 88
ISP: 88

Highs:

EWR: 94
New Brnswck: 93
NYC: 93
PHL: 93
TEB: 92
LGA: 92
BLM: 92
ACY: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 88
ISP: 88

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

good week to head west.  Horrible beach week FL - Carolinas -  New England. Dry pattern only last so long into the east

dejavu

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I hear your frustration since CNJ has been a localized dry spot. But model output especially when convection is involved isn’t generally able to do INMBY forecasts. It can provide a heavy rain signal for someone in the region which has been working out. But unfortunately the technology can’t pinpoint whether Somerset or Sussex jackpots like we saw yesterday. So the 2.60” jackpot was to your north. 

Wantage

NJ

2024-08-02

SafetyNet

84

68

94

60

29.97

29.81

2.60

27

 

At some point it'll even and tip back wetter than normal looks like this week Tue - Sat cold do it.

Just hit 90 here.

"Debby to be"  slow one  - suspect it may be north of this by Thu the 8th

Rain Fri

LGA: 0/74
EWR: 0.74
TTN:  0.62
TEB: 0.52
NYC: 0.52
JFK: 0.18

84 / 74 sunny.  Scattered storms again later this pm but hot and humid ahead of any storms low- mid 90s in the hot spots.  Sun (8/4) showers and clouds should keep it below 90 (break the heatwave) if its more clear then the warm spot get to another 90.  Mon (8/5) driest and hottest day of the next 10 mid - upper 90s.   Tue (8/6) - Sat (8/10) storm chances and onshore flow influences from the remnants of what should be Debby  Fri/Sat could produce some heavy rains the typical dry to deluge scenario.   Heat looks toreturn around mid month as ridge west expands east north and west initially. 

8/3 - 8/5:  Hot/ humid -storm chances
8/6 - 8/10 : Humid - wet to very wet - near normal - no 90s likely
8/11 - 8/14 : near normal overall warming by mid month with next heat signal