SACRUS

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

73/67 here.  Partly sunny now but plenty of clouds around.  Should we get into longer breaks of sunshine we should see plenty of mid/upper 80s and some of the hotter spots get to 90.  Euro was the first with the weekend being mixed- Saturday cloudy and scattered storms, more widespread rains look mainlys south of the NYC/NJ metro areas into the southern half of NJ.  Should dry out later Saturday and give way to a very nice Sunday.  Sunny , dry and exceptional.  

Rockies ridge shoots a piece of the furnace east Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13).  Temperatures at >18c (850) by Tuesday could push mid / upper 90s into the area and hot spots 98/99.  Likely see more showers/storms later Wed (7/13) and Thu (7/14).

Longer range - Rockies ridge anchored through the middle of the month - W/ ATlt Ridge may push west and allow for more sustained ridging and heat later in July.

7/7

NYC: 84
PHL: 84
EWR: 84
JFK: 82
LGA: 82
TEB: 82
ISP: 81
New Brnswck: 81
TTN: 79
ACY: 76
BLM: 75

Clouds today with rain splitting the southern 2/3 of NJ.  Rain should move out over the next couple of hours and more partial clearing into the afternoon.  Friday (looks much like yesterday  where/when it's  sunny it should push temperatures into the mid-upper 80s and some warmer spots near 90.  Saturday (7/9) looks to have rain and storms move through in the morning with brunt of the precip staying south of the nyc/nj metro areas.  By Sunday (7/10) is looking very clear and sunny.

Western Ridge lodges over the Rockies sends a piece of the heat down around the trough into the EC Tue (7/12) - Wed (7/13).   Assuming its sunny it could be very hot for 36-48 hours as Euro and GFS pushing >18c - 21C 850 MB temperatures in the period.

Longer range continues to show ridge building into the east coast linking at times with the retrograding Western Atlantic High.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

7/6

ACY: 92
EWR: 91
PHL: 90
JFK: 89
BLM: 89
TTN: 87
New Brnswck: 87
TEB: 87
LGA: 86
ISP: 85
NYC: 85

Partly sunny and warm / hotter today.  Should see plenty of upper 80s / low 90s.  Models pushing brunt of the rain south Thu (7/7) and Fri (7/8).  Will see if any of the more widespread showers and rain can push into the region.  Otherwise, looking cloudy Thursday and 80s and perhaps stormier on Fri.  The weekend currently looks dry and sunny but the 06z euro did bring a batch of showers into the region.  Rockies Ridge on roids through mid month, yet despite the trough into the GL and NE, a warm southerly flow on days that are dry should push temps near 90 early next week Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13).  Would think with such a trough that rain chances should increase.  Beyond that the Western Atlantic Ridge is on the move west.  Will see how it progresses but a much warmer finish to the month may be instore.

7/5

EWR: 91
PHL: 89
New Brnswck: 88
TEB: 88
LGA: 88
NYC: 87
BLM: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 84
JFK: 84
ISP: 82

Tue (7/5) More clouds than sun with some showers/storm later today into tonight.  Mostly mid 80s If we get longer breaks of sun perhaps an outside shot of some upper 80s 87- 90 in the warmer spots.  Not a whole lot of rain.  Wed (7/6) looks like the drier/warmer day this work week with increasing clearing and partly sunny and warm upper 80s / low 90s.  Th (7/7) and Fri (7/8) a bit unsettled with showers each day with a larger widespread rainfall on friday morning.  We'll see how much rain we can cash in on.

The weekend looks very nice on the latest modeling and next week a warmer / humid with temps hovering in the mid / upper 80s and with enough sun spots will break 90 especially by the 12-14.   

Some hints now that the W. A.R will build back in the mid month timeframe perhaps pulling a longer sustained fringe of the western furnace into and up along the east coast to end July on a hotter note.  We will see how it progresses.

7/4

ACY: 93
EWR: 91
PHL: 88
LGA: 87
TEB: 86
New Brunswck: 86
JFK: 85
TTN: 85
NYC: 85
ISP: 82
BLM: 82

Blue Skies - nothing but blue skies

Good Vibrations kind of day

Happy Fourth of July

A tremendous day on tap.  Sunny, dry and warm - its been a while since we had one of these.  Down to 57 here. Now 70/49.

Parts of the  central / NE - NJ may get 90(+) again for 6 straight days as heights remain elevated into the EC, otherwise mid / upper 80s for the area.  Great fireowrks viewing dry and in the 60s. 

Warmer overall through Wed with push of more warm/hot Tue (7/5)and Wed (7/6, where only storms, showers or clouds will prevent more 90s, especially in the warmer spots.  Still a matter of timing any pop up and more areawide rain/ showers.   Tue/ Wed look to see mainly pop up / scattered storms before Thu (7.7) /Fri (7/8) more widespread.    

Ridge remans anchored into the Rockies with heat dome centered near the mile high city through the week of  Mon 7/11).  Trough builds into the G/L and North east wrap around E/NE flow keeping it near or below normal.  By the Tue (7/12) / Wed (7/13) a chuck of the Denver doozie is heading east and may scrape the area for a 2 day blast of stronger heat, before next front.  

Looking in the way beyond and Western heat may expand and link with Western Atlantic Ridge near the other side of mid July.

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2022:

PHL: 11 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 3 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 13 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 3; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 5 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 2; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: )
BLM: 8 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 2 ) 

89 Degree Days:

NYC: 1
TEB: 1
PHL: 1
New Brsnswk: 2
ACY: 1
JFK: 1
TTN: 1
ISP: 1

 

 

7/3

EWR: 93
PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 88
TEB: 88
LGA: 88
TTN: 87
JFK: 86
ACY: 85
ISP: 85
BLM: 82

7/2

EWR: 96
PHL: 94
BLM: 92
New Brnswck: 91
ACY: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 87
NYC: 87
ISP: 84

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2022:

PHL: 10 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 12 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 5 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 2; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 8 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: )
BLM: 8 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 2 ) 

89 Degree Days:

NYC: 1
TEB: 1
PHL: 1
New Brsnswk: 1`
ACY: 1
JFK: 1
TTN: 1
ISP: 1

 

 

7/2

EWR: 96
PHL: 94
BLM: 92
New Brnswck: 91
ACY: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 87
NYC: 87
ISP: 84

7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Looks like a forecast bust..headed for a partly sunny day with highs around 90 and probably dry

Forecast was more scattered storms today, more widespread later this PM.  The timing of the front came into view later this week.  The quicker forecasts and slower were wrong and the front timing was a compromise.  If we get to 90 it'll be day 4 for some in NE - NJ with outside shot at 90 on Sun and Mon.  Probably then need to assess but temps look capped sub 90s Jul 5 - Jul 11th.

Some bigger breaks of the clouds now and partly sunny.  

77/72 here steamy and mostly cloudy.  May see some breaks of clouds and if they are long enough with an hour or two of sun,  it should push temps near or above 90.  Storms later this pm and overnight into Sunday morning as front is slow to clear, especially coastal areas.  Sun (7/2) should see clearing by noon N/W to S / E and temps mainly in the mid/upper 80s.  Perhaps a stray 90 in the warmer spots of NE and C - NJ.  Fourth of July looks award winning, sunny, warm and great fireworks viewing.  Highs mid- upper 80s with again a chance of a few low 90s in the warmer spots.

Tue (7/5) - Fri (7/8) front nearby to the south and another front coming through offers storms and pop up storms each day.  Timing the pulse of these systems as we ride the rim of the Rockies ridge, but Tue more widespread later in the day with Wed may be mainly dry before later Thu / Fr seeing more scattered storms.  Ridge goes bonkers over Denver during the period and through the 11th, as trough pushes through the northeast nect weekened Sat (7/9) into the following week Mon (7/11).

Out beyond:A blast from the western heat timing wise looks to be Tue 7/12 and some hints the heights begin to push east before mid month, perhaps in a more sustained fashion.

7/1

EWR: 99
TEB: 96
LGA: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 94
New Brnswck: 93
ACY: 91
NYC: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 85
ISP: 83

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2022:

PHL: 9 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
EWR: 11 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep: 
TTN: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
LGA: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3  ; Jun: 3; Jul : 1; Aug: ; Sep: 
ACY: 6 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep: 
TEB: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
NYC: 4 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: 
JFK: 2 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: 
ISP: 3 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: 

New Brunswick: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep: )
BLM: 7 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 1 ) 

89 Degree Days:

NYC: 1
TEB: 1
PHL: 1
New Brsnswk: 1`
ACY: 1
JFK: 1
TTN: 1
ISP: 1

 

 

7/1

EWR: 99
TEB: 96
LGA: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 94
New Brnswck: 93
ACY: 91
NYC: 91
TTN: 91
JFK: 85
ISP: 83

Noon Roundup

EWR: 93
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
TEB: 89
LGA: 88
ACY: 88
TEB: 88
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
ISP: 81
JFK: 81
 

A few storms popping up in CPA near Harrisburg, and  bit more clouds into the area 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Dewpoints in the low 70s

Warm start many low/mid 80s before 11AM.  July opens hot and turns stormy.  Long weekend looks great 3/4 of the time. Saturday storms and cloudy conditions.  Drier and warm again 3th/4th.  Period Jul 5th - Jul 9th looks a bit unsettled (Florida like) front nearby could trigger popup storms each day, otherwise warm and a bit humid.  Trough looks to push through by the end of the week Jul 8th - Jul 10th.  We'll see if the furnace out west under the heat dome in the rockies where the ridge goes bonkers, can spread east with a taste of more sustained heat by the 12th.