SACRUS
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84/69 and mostly sunny now. If we maintain the sun - today should overperform on temps. Same goes for tomorrow when 850 temps spike to >18c. With enough sun we should see the warmer spots push upper 90s. Saturday is a timing of the front on whether we can make more 90s. Sunday front is slow to move through with more storms and rain continuing into Monday before clearing out. Mon 7/19 - Thu 7/22 : near normal, piece of the western heat may push a day of heat. Beyond there next weekend 7/24 -25 looks to potentially have a candian cool (how cool can it go) airmass before a transition back to the warm to hot pattern.
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7/14 EWR: 93 PHL: 93 ACY: 92 LGA: 91 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 90 TEB: 89 TTN: 88 ISP: 87 NYC: 87 JFK: 86
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7/14 EWR: 93 PHL: 93 ACY: 92 LGA: 91 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 90 TEB: 89 TTN: 88 ISP: 87 NYC: 87 JFK: 86
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73/73 and waiting for clouds to burn off and clear today. That will determine how hot we can get. Overall hot, humid and chances for storms the next 4 days through Saturday 7/17. 850 temps spike to >18c on Thu /Fri and Sat so pending on sunshine the warmer spots can touch the upper 90s. Cold front comes through Saturday evening and Sun (7/18) through Wed (7/21) look near normal before warming up towards the second part of next week (7/24) and beyond as pieces of the Western Atlantic heat push east and heights are forecast to rise in the east. Could be a very hot finish to the month.
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Many places in Central and Northern NJ hit 90 on Monday. New Brnswck was at 90 and has hit 90 () 17 times this year, matching or close to NE-NJ/ EWR. Of the 15 - 20 days of 90(+) this year is, many places are exceeding prior years in places in EWR/CNJ for 95+ days as well. I wouldnt be surprised if we see 2 or more 95+ dayes between Wed and Sat.
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Crazy model showed similar last week. Jul 18 - Jul 22 looks near normal before that heat out west come east so perhaps its onto something from the Fri 7/23 and yonder.
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2009, 2004 were very cool overall nothing like this year June / Jul. Today and Jul 3 were the two miserable clunkers bringing the averages for Jul all the way down but Wed - Sat we should notch 3 or 4 90(+) degree days in most places (park included). Can see Thu with big over performance if we remain mostly sunny. Despite the heavy rains (centered near NYC) I'd expect Jul to finish on the positive side >+1.5. Its looking hotter towards the last week of the month and open August.
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Departures through the 12th EWR: +1.4 TTN: +0.9 NYC: -1.1 JFK: -0.5 LGA: -0.2
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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Cloudy most of the day but any clearing for any prolonged gaps/periods should see temps spike to near 90 S/CNJ perhaps north. Western Atlantic Ridge is pumping the humidity and heat and associated Florida like routine storms/rain. Wed (7/14_ - Sat (7/17) 850 temps >16c peaking near 18-19C by Fri. Look for temps in low to mid 90sperhaps an upper 90s Thu or Fri when rain chances are less. By Sat evening (7/17) / Sun (7/18) cold front and upper level weakness in the ridge should produce additional rain/clouds to end the weekend and start the work week (7/19) Western ridge pumps heights centered into the Rockies then Plains and pieces of that heat ride east and delivery more heat into the region by the middle /end of next week. Overall warm to hot with Florida style humidity and frequent storms continues.
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2021: PHL: 16 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 9 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) EWR: 20(April: 0; May: 4 ; June: 12 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) TTN: 12 (April:0 ; May: 1 ; June: 8 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) LGA: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 9 ; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: ) ACY: 12 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) TEB: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 9 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) NYC: 10 (April: 0 ; May: ; June: 8; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: ) JFK: 5 (April: 0; May: 2 ; June: 3 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: ) ISP: 3(April: 0; May:1 ; June: 1 ; Jul:1 ; Aug: ; Sep: ) New Bnswk: 17 (April: 0 , May: 3, June: 10, July: 4; Aug: ;Sep:; ) BLM: 18 89 degree days EWR: 3 ACY: 4 PHL: 4 TTN: 4 NYC: 2 ISP: 3 BLM: 2 TEB: 3 89 JFK: 2 LGA: 2
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7/12 EWR: 93 PHL: 92 BLM: 91 ACY: 91 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 90 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 82 LGA: 82
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7/12 EWR: 93 PHL: 92 BLM: 91 ACY: 91 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 90 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ISP: 82 LGA: 82
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Florida like forecast, hot, humid and routine storms next few days. Where the sun comes out temps will spike to near 90. Western Atlantic Ridge Building in Mon - Sat. Later Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/18) looks like the peak heat with 3,4 days of 90s. 850 temps jump to >18c in that period so where its sunny enough for long enough - the hot spots could top in the upper 90s. A cod front come through this weekend but is slow to progress so the period later Sat (7/18 into early next week 7/21 it looks a bit unsettled. Western ridge is pumping heat and should begin to drift eater later next week. Appears any break in heat chances will yield in the 7/25 period. Overall warm to hot - humid and stormy pattern continues.
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7/11 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 84 TTN: 84 EWR: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 BLM: 81 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 NYC: 78
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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Florida style pattern continues. Plenty of clouds the next 2-3 days. Piece of energy near the Bahamas now can be tracked Mon - Tue M riding along the rim of the Western Atlantic ridge as it builds westward. That feature will enhance any storms Tue and into Wed and limit any 90 degree readings with more clouds. Beyond there hazy, hot, humid later Wed (7/14 - Sat (7/17). 850 temps >18c by Thu (7/15) and Fri (7/16). Sun (7/18) in to early next week looks a bit unsettled as the W Atlt Ridge is shoved east and the Western heat machine surgeds. Should see pieces of the heat machine peel east pushing heat into the plains, GL and then into the NE. Next surge of the Atlantic Ridge timing could develop into a very hot finish to July. Overall Florida like humid, hot and plenty of rain chances. No record heat the next 10 days but the warm to hot pattern continues.
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7/10 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 ACY: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 80 ISP: 80 JFK: 80
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Couple of day break before returning to the Florida like pattern. Mix of sun and clouds Sat and Sun (7/11) with highs in the low to mid 80s. Transition to the tropical regime Mon (7/12) and Tue (7/13) as the Western Atlantic ridge builds back west, with those days perhaps more stormy and depending on timing and clouds limited 90's. BY Wed (7/14) piece of energy is rounding the edge of the 595 DM ridge and its back to the heat. 850 MB temps >18c and perhaps near 20c Thu (7/15) through Sat (7/17). Have to get through weakness in the ridge that should bring more storms and perhaps a onshore flow for a period in the Sun (7/18) and early week of 7/19. Beyond there the Rockies ridge is still glaring and pieces of that heat machine spreading east in batches. Timing of the next westward of expansion of the W Atl Ridge likely in the last week of July (7/28) period where there could see a link with the Wsetern / Southwest ridge to really pump the heights and heat. Overall warm to hot and stormy continues in this Florida like pattern.
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7/9 EWR: 91 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 88 BLM: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 85
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7/9 EWR: 91 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 88 BLM: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 86 NYC: 85
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Monthly rain totals (so far) NYC: 6.49 LGA: 4.32 EWR: 4.49 New Brnswck: 2.95 TTN: 2.5 ISP: 2.42 JFK: 2.73
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http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Elsie departs, joining Fay and Arthur in early July tropical systems in the last 10 years. Should see some clearing in the wake of the storm in the next few hours. Sat (7/10) - Mon (7/13) transitioning from current high humidity to the next resurge. Temps mostly below 90 but outside of Saturday, showers and storms chances . By Tuesday the Western Atlantic Ridge is building back high pressure west in to the EC, Tuesday may see hung up front still stubborn to wash out but clouds the only thing from preventing the next string of 90s to commence. P Otherwise- Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/17) Florida style pattern hot, humid wuth routine thunderstorms. Wed/Thu 850 temps surging to >18c , with enough sun the wsw flow could push near the century mark at LGA/ EWR other metro areas. Lots of rain in the ground for the park to nudge past 93 on the hottest days. Beyond there into the middle of the month and yonder overall warm to hot and humidity (Florida-like) looks to persist. Western heat furnace looks to shoot scorching heat east in spatters. Mean trough into the GL with Ridging on both west and east coasts. We wait for the merge to see potential record heat to end the month.
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7/8 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 90 ACY: 89 TTN: 89 EWR: 88 TEB: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 LGA: 80
