SACRUS

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS really cool off from the 28 into March. We haven’t had any luck with snow but I don’t see spring coming anytime soon 

Cooler/cold look with trough into the east to close the month and start of next - some stronger cold nearby as well in this timeframe.

23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Cold period
 

 

Cold period

2/17

NYC: 36 / 26 (-5)
LGA: 38 / 27 (-4)
EWR: 38 / 27 (-3)
JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2/18

JFK: 32 / 22 (-8)
EWR: 30 / 20 (-11)
NYC: 27/19  (-13)
LGA: 28 / 20 (-13)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1979 Feb 17 - 19 Presidents Day Storm (Blizzard)

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

NYC Feb 19, 1972 : 5.2 inches of snowfall

1979: 12.2 inches of snowfall (PDI Blizzard)

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2017)
NYC: 66 (1997)
LGA: 66 (2017)
JFK: 68 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1936)
NYC: 1 (1936)
LGA: 9 (2015)
JFK: 9 (2015)


Historical:

1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)

1888: Severe thunderstorms over southern Illinois spawned a violent tornado in Jefferson County and devastated the southeast half of Mount Vernon. The tornado killed 24 people, injured 80 others, and destroyed or damaged 300 homes and 50 businesses. In addition, overturned wood stoves ignited many fires in the wreckage. The tornado currently stands as the 9th deadliest Illinois tornado on record and was one of the first disasters to which the American Red Cross responded.

1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

19 / 1 off a low of 13.   At or near freezing as the cold continues.  Mainly dry next 4- 5 days.  The once potential major snowstorm is staying well south and perhaps a period of snow flurries or showers is possible.  Moderation by the weekend and into early next week.  Cold does seem to be forecast to reload and remain nearby after any moderation as we move into the close of the month and start of next.  Perhaps some late inning snow awaits before a meaningful change in the pattern to warmer.

Temps firgid into the N Plains and GL

Cold period

2/17

NYC: 36 / 26 (-5)
LGA: 38 / 27 (-4)
EWR: 38 / 27 (-3)
JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)
JFK: 67 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
JFK: 2 (1979)

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

21 / 1 off a low of 17.  Coldest day since Jan 23rd and looks to be coldest of the week and perhaps till next winter?  Below freezing and lows back into the teens and near single digits. Overall cold and drier this week (swing and a miss on the potential bigger storm but that was becoming more apparent by Sat night).  Moderation by the coming weekend and to close the month or 21 - 25th.  Does looks to be a bit of a back and forth and more cold to close the month and perhaps open next month.  next shot at meaningful precip looks to be in the 27 - Mar 3 period.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's strange to see JFK so much warmer than everyone else lol

it certainly didn't feel warm at all

 

JFK

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Standard time would be unpopular due to earlier summer sunsets (7:30pm locally).   DST would be unpopular due to late winter sunrises close to 9am in some places.    So I agree with #3 or returning to #3 after 1 or 2 is tried for a year or two...

One wonky option would be if individual states decided which is the current law (AZ, HI, PR dont use Daylight savings time)

Can you imagine  scenario example - where PA blocks DST and NY stays all  year on DST, and while NJ keeps the current two?

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think our highest temps were between Christmas and New Years weren't they?

Those severe thunderstorms with hail New Years Eve should have been taken as a sign.

 

NYC

Warmest :

Dec:  60 (12/11)
Jan: 52 (1/29)
Feb: 49 (2/3)

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunset will be 7pm in 2 1/2 weeks so either way it won't be dark

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunset will be 7pm in 2 1/2 weeks so either way it won't be dark

Stanard time ends March 9th.  I havent seen any additional movement on the two varying opinions/bills that are being talked for reamaining on Standard time or Daylight savings time and it would be hard pressed to have any approvals by the 9th.

Leaving three options:  

1. We change ahead and perhaps a bill is passed to stay on Standard time and clocks change in November and stay

2. A daylight savings time initiative is passed before November and we change clocks ahead in March and this is the last time, they stay there.

3. And the most likely no bills are passes through the house or senate and we remain on the 2 time (Standard Nov-Mar and Daylight savings Mar-Oct)  policy.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are currently on pace for a new 10 year snowfall low average across the area if we don’t get a big increase over the next 3 seasons.  This current 7 year lower running snowfall average began in 18-19. The past slumps were followed by 50” seasons boosting the totals back up in the following years. But reaching such heavy totals in recent years has been a significant challenge. 
 

Lowest 10 year averages and ending year and current 7 year average since 18-19

 

EWR…..1977……19.4”…….2025….17.3”

NYC…..1993……18.8”…….2025….14.9”

LGA…..1977…….17.7”……..2025….16.0”

JFK…..1993….…18.0”…….2025…..14.5”

ISP……1995…….19.3”……..2025…..16.8”

 

I can access Newark 1929-1930, 1931-1932, 1931-1932 bus im sure it'll be close to the MYC 10.1 3 year avg.

if you expand the subset to 5 consecutive seasons 27-32 will be the lowest avg i can find.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

10.2 wow

I think BW was doing an aggregate of all stations you requested.  

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that the combined 3 year snowfall average at EWR, NYC, JFK, LGA, and ISP dipped under 10”. The current 3 year mean is at 8.9”. The old record low from 96-97 to 98-99 was 10.5”. 

Did you run this stretch  - i can get EWR 

1929-1930: 13.6 inches
1930- 1931: 11.6 inches
1931-1932: 5.3 inches

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow, overall just going by 6 season snowfall average, that might be even lower than our current 6 season snowless streak!

 

 

Added some more stretches above.

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris when was the last time all the local airports (LGA, JFK, EWR, ISP) plus the park (NYC) had 15.0 or less inches of snow for 3 years in a row or more? Has it ever happened before?

In NYC

A few times came close most notably this stretch

1927-1928: 14.5 inches
1928-1929: 13.8 inches
1929-1930: 13.6 inches
1930- 1931: 11.6 inches
1931-1932: 5.3 inches

then this one

1949-1950: 13.8 inches
1950-1951: 11.6 inches
1951-1952: 19.7 inches
1952- 1953: 15.1 inches
1953- 1954: 15.8 inches
1954-1955: 11.5 inches

And this one

1996-1997: 10 Inches
1997-1998: 5.5 Inches
1998-1999: 12.7 Inches
1999-2000: 16.3 Inches

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony whats the actual average/mean temperature for the month for these locations-- how could NYC be at -0.8 but JFK is at +3.0, is it because of higher mins from the westerly winds?

 

JFK: 36.6
LGA: 34.8
EWR: 34.6
NYC: 34.1

1958

Feb dep and precip through Feb 16

NYC: -0.8 (2.58 in)  Snow: 6.7inches

LGA: -0.5 (2.62 in) Snow 7.3 inches

EWR: +0.7  (2.8 in) Snow 6.3 inches

JFK: +3.0 (3.17 in) Snow 6.4 inches

With the southweast progression forecasted for the Wed-THu system - its looks like a generally dry week

Feb 15 - 17 , 1958

NYC: 6.9 inches of snowfall

LGA: 10.1 inches of snowfall

EWR: 13.3 inches of snowfall

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2022)
NYC: 68 (2022)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 65 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1979)
NYC: -5 (1896)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 5 (1979)

Historical:

1894: According to Grazulis, an estimated F2 tornado hits 5 miles south of Warren, Arkansas. An older woman was killed in one of the small homes that were destroyed. In addition, fruit trees were ripped out and carried a half-mile. Another tornado, estimated F3, killed two people in Claiborne County, Louisiana.

1926: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house in Bingham Canyon. Thirty-six were killed and 13 injured. 

1930 - Eureka, CA, reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)

1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States.

1973: Snow showers moved across southeast Texas, with most locations only reporting snow flurries. However, the Houston Intercontinental Airport measured 1.4 inches of snow.

1987 - A couple of winter storms, one off the Atlantic coast and another over the south central U.S., produced snow and ice from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast Region. Freezing rain produced a coat of ice three inches thick in northern South Carolina, and 30,000 homes around Pee Dee were left without electricity. Parts of south central Kentucky were without electricity for three days following the storm, which was their worst in 35 years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 63 mph at Ontario. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Colorado, with 11 inches reported at Strontia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the Washington coast produced more than a foot of snow in the Cascade Mountains, and more than three inches of rain along the Northern Pacific Coast. Spokane WA was blanketed with 13 inches of snow. Cold arctic air in the Upper Midwest produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.10 inches at Duluth MN, 31.09 inches at Minneapolis MN, and 31.21 inches at Bismarck ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)