SACRUS

37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Do the people who are all gung ho for record heat and say they like it actually spend any appreciable time in it? Going from an air conditioned car to an air conditioned office to an air condirtioned home does not impress me. 

Granted I think @LibertyBell actually enjoys suffering in heat if he sleeps in temps over 80 voluntarily. I'm not so sure about some other people.

 

I am let it be hot in the summer and let it snow Thanksgiving to St Pattys day kinda of old timer.  

I do appreciate a dry heat / So Cal Palm Springs style .

87 / 75 hot / humid and mainly clear.  72 hour (6/23 - 6/25) the heat - near or record heat this is, is on.  Mid - upper 90s with some of the hottest spots getting to 100 today.   Widerspread 100s minus any of the caveats of clouds and seabreeze.  Could be 3 lows >80 in the metros.   Wed its a race to see if storms/clouds arrive before the hottest spots get to the century mark.   Clouds/showers could muddy up continuing the heatwave on Thu (6/26) before more prominent storms come through later thu into fri/  Friday clouds, showers and onshore keeps it in the 80s/ 70s. 

The weekend looking to conitnue the trend with the threat of showers as the boundary linger near by, otherwise warm-hot / humid.  Next week and leading up to the 4th - overall warm / humid and wetter.  Ridge and heat building north and east towards the 7th.

6/23 - 6/25 : Strong Heat - upper 90s, 100s - lows >80
6/26:   Hot/humid storms
6/27:   Break in heat for all - clouds/showers
6/28 - 7/1:   Warm-hot, humid - storms could keep it wet but period of sun (90s possible  1-2)
7/2 - beyond :  Warm / humid -  storms chances . Hotter towards the 6h/7th

10PM 

EWR: 87
LGA: 87
NYC: 85
JFK: 85
New Brnswck: 82

Similar ridge position and forecasted 850 MB temps (100s)

Park of course missed , especially having come out of a very wet June 

2013



7/18:

EWR: 101
LGA: 100
JFK: 100
NYC: 98


7/19:

EWR: 100
LGA: 100
NYC: 96
JFK: 95

On a side note the ECMWF AI Ensembles package will launch July

https://events.ecmwf.int/event/487/

On Tuesday 1 July 2025, the first version of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) Ensemble model will be released and supported operationally. This release marks another milestone in ECMWF history, as AIFS ENS v1 will be the first AIFS ensemble model to be made fully operational.

AIFS ENS, v1 model will not be an upgrade of currently experimental diffusion AIFS ENS model. It is a first version of a new model that is trained using a version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), a loss function that helps ensure the forecasts are both accurate and well-calibrated.

In addition to operationalisation of AIFS ENS, v1 will bring several new data and graphical probabilistic prodcuts available in the EMCWF Open charts platform.

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Can someone post the 18z Euro's highs for Tuesday?

 

Looks like 105 in NYC  / NE-NJ NYC/NJ metro

9PM

LGA: 88
EWR: 88
NYC: 85
JFK: 84
New Brnswck: 83

Still 85 / 73 here nice lifting board for tomorrow.  

Similar placed ridge at 500MB to Jul 17-18 2013 which produced 100 degree heat.  

Both the GFS and Euro maintain a warm-hot and steamy day on the 4th low 90s metro, upper 80s coast beaches with no rain.

2-3 : warm / humid
5-6 : warm humid storms on the euro on the 6th

What is left of the MCS and clouds still seen of the last few loops riding around the rim of the expanding ridge

Clouds through 4PM and still made it to 90 here, in most placed even with almost a full day of clouds forecasts highs were only missed by 6 - 8 degrees.  Had we partly cloudy/ sunny conditions - highs would have over performed in my opinion.

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

2025:

PHL: 3   (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 3 ; Jul:  ; Aug:   ; Sep: )
EWR: 5 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 5  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
TTN:  1 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:   ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
LGA:  3 (Apr:  ; May:   ; Jun: 3; Jul :  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
ACY:  4 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 4 ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep:  )
TEB:  5 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun : 5   ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
NYC:   (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun:  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
JFK: 2 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 2; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep:  )
ISP:  1 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 1 ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: )

New Brunswick: 2 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 2 ; Jul:   ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
BLM:  2 (Apr:  ; May:  ; Jun: 2 ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )

89 Degree Days:

New Brnswck: 2
TTN: 1
TEB: 1
BLM: 1

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Clouds spoiled a clean sweep but late in the day comeback almost got all stations there.

EWR: 92
ISP: 91
JFK: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 90
ACY: 90
New Brnswck: 88
BLM: 88
NYC: 88
PHL: 88
TTN: 87

Highs

Clouds in the way  for most of the day with a decent comeback later in the PM 

EWR: 92
ISP: 91
JFK: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 90
ACY: 90
New Brnswck: 88
BLM: 88
NYC: 88
PHL: 88
TTN: 87

Amazing it just has such a tendency to be cloudy of late, clouds clinging - so hard to clear out

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the Euro we once knew, it is. I don't think it's quite as good today.

WX/PT

Notice when we have ridges of this magnitude and strong,  the heat overperforms - assuming enough clearing and no seabreeze, outside of central park.  

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that 0.22 in August was mostly on the 31st I think.  I thought we'd make it through the entire month and just before midnight as the last day of the month was about to end this really weird front came down from the north and deposited that small amount of rain just before midnight :-(

 

JFK 5th, 6th and 12th had light rainfall in Aug 1995

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes//wfo.php?wfo=phi

Kick in the gut MCS about through raining into NJ - clearing continues to build from the NE.  We have 3.5 hours to heat up

83/ 70 here

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This might have been our final rain for the summer, I remember there was zero rain in August that year and all those wildfires.

JFK
1995

Rainfall totals

May: 3.44
June: 2.73
Jul: 3.37
Aug: 0.22
Sep: 3.41
 

Up to 83 with the slowly visible sun

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Never thought I'd be sitting at 75 degrees at noon today, but here we are. 

Kind of the worst timing and track to spoil part of the day - second half of the day looking more salvageable 

77 / 72 here skie s brightening

Uniquely odd clearing building down NE-SW (ish)