SACRUS

Meanwhile  96 hours of sub 70 a mighty task for June

66 here.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is climo history, when you have heat starting in the latter part of June it doesn't peak until July.  Heat after June 20 usually indicates a very hot and very long summer. 1966, 1980 and 1993 being cases in point.

 

Im not sure I follow this?  Heat after jun 20th, meaning no heat until or starting  after jun 20th?  

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and NYC too their streak also goes back to 2013.  PHL has not hit 100 since 2013 either?

 

2012 for Philly with 99 in 2022, 3 98 last year and 3 98 in 2022

Some chinks in the armor detected in the cloud magnet pushing into W / PA

Just now, LibertyBell said:

LGA heat issues lol

2021:

LGA:

6/28: 96
6/29: 98 
6/30:  100

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's interesting that Newark hit as high as 103 and none of us east of the Hudson even hit 98

2021:

LGA:

6/28: 96
6/29: 98 
6/30:  100

2017

LGA:

6/11: 94 
6/12: 96 
6/13:  101

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Most recent June heat coming around the same time or 99 or higher heatwaves

 

2024

EWR:

6/17: 92
6/18: 91
6/19: 93
6/20: 97
6/21: 100
6/22: 95 
6/23: 99
6/24: 84
6/25: 94 
6/26 : 98 

 

2021

 

EWR:

6/27:  95
6/28: 99 
6/29: 102
6/30: 103

 

2017:

EWR:

6/11: 94
6/12: 97 
6/13: 99

 

2012:

EWR:

6/20: 98 
6/21: 99 
6/22:  96


 

2011:

EWR:

6/7:  92 
6/8: 99 
6/9:  102

 

 

2008:

EWR:

6/7: 97
6/8: 96 
6/9: 99 
6/10: 99

 

 

 

Added back to 2008

Most recent June heat coming around the same time or 99 or higher heatwaves

2024

EWR:

6/17: 92
6/18: 91
6/19: 93
6/20: 97
6/21: 100
6/22: 95 
6/23: 99
6/24: 84
6/25: 94 
6/26 : 98 

2021

EWR:

6/27:  95
6/28: 99 
6/29: 102
6/30: 103

2017:

EWR:

6/11: 94
6/12: 97 
6/13: 99

 

2012:

EWR:

6/20: 98 
6/21: 99 
6/22:  96


 

2011:

EWR:

6/7:  92 
6/8: 99 
6/9:  102

2008:

EWR:

6/7: 97
6/8: 96 
6/9: 99 
6/10: 99

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (1952)
NYC: 96 (1957)
LGA: 96 (1957)
JFK: 94 (2022)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1950)
NYC: 51 (1926)
LGA: 53 (1959)
JFK: 50 (1965)

Historical:

1859 - Hot Santa Ana winds in southern California roasted fruit on one side at Santa Barbara. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1882 - A tornado traveled more than 200 miles across the state of Iowa killing 130 persons. The tornado touched down about ninety miles west of Grinnell, and struck the town and college around sunset, killing sixty persons, and causing more than half a million dollars damage. Traveling at nearly 60 mph, the tornado hit Mount Pleasant about 11 PM causing another half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1959: A tropical depression spawned several tornadoes, the most severe in Miami, FL since 1925. A tornado moved northeast through Miami, across Biscayne Bay and then out to sea. 77 people were injured, mostly from flying glass. On this date through the 21st, heavy rains over the southern peninsula caused considerable flooding in poorly drained and low lying agricultural areas and some residential sections. Some highways also sustained flood damage. High tides along the west coast from Tampa south damaged boat docks and caused beach erosion. 5-day rain totals were mostly 7 to 12 inches with some scattered amounts 15 inches or more reported. This Depression went on to become a hurricane and killed 33 lobster fishermen in the Canadian Maritimes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1960: Heavy rains just west of Binghamton, NY produced 3 inches in less than 30 minutes. Flash flooding was reported in Johnson City, Vestal, and the northern sides of Endicott, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965 - Holly, CO, was deluged with 11.08 inches of rain to establish a state 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel)

1967: This was the 24th consecutive day of at least a trace of precipitation at Denver, CO. Precipitation totaled 5.87 inches during that period; more than a third of their total annual rainfall.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968: On this date through the 18th, Tropical Depression Brenda crossed Key West, FL and moved through central Florida exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville. This storm gained hurricane strength north of Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: Hurricane Bridget passed just 30 miles off of Acapulco, MX. The storm was the worst in 25 years as winds gusted to 100 mph. The flagship of the Admiral of the Mexican Navy went down during the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1978: An F2 tornado hit the showboat "Whippoorwill" on Pomona Lake in Osage County, Kansas as it left the dock for a dinner cruise. 16 of the 58 passengers drowned as the boat capsized, making the twister the deadliest tornado of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1982: On this date through the 18th, a subtropical storm moved from the southeast Gulf of Mexico, northeast across the central Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic causing at least 12 tornadoes, On the Manatee River, 20 families were evacuated. The Peace River crested a week after the storm causing the evacuation of 130 families. A one and a half year old boy drowned in a flooded drainage ditch, and a Brevard County woman drowned when her canoe turned over, her four year old son was rescued after clinging to the canoe for six hours. 12 tornadoes were reported between the morning of the 17th and the morning of the 18th from Dade and Broward Counties to Polk and Volusia counties. On the evening of the 17th, a tornado destroyed five trailers and two cars in northwest Hendry County, killing a man in a trailer and seriously injuring his wife. Another tornado moved through the Lake Josephine area in Highlands County destroying 23 homes and mobile homes and damaging many more, injuring nine people. The 10 other tornadoes caused much property damage, but no deaths or serious injuries. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1985: The highest wind occurrence at Columbia, MO was recorded at 95 mph. This wind occurred on the same day that a tornado struck the Columbia Regional Airport causing damage to 22 planes.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Lyons, and baseball size hail at Garden City. The Edwards Aquifer, which supplies water to San Antonio, TX, reached a record level of 699.2 feet following a record 18.43 inches of rain in thirty days. Torrential rains between the mid May and mid June sent 8.8 million acre feet of water down the rivers of southern Texas, the largest volume in 100 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Georgia and the Carolinas. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Eden, NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool air, responsible for 37 record lows in the central U.S. on the 15th and 16th, including a low of 33 degrees at Valentine NE on the 15th, overspread the eastern U.S. ending a three day seige of severe weather. (The National Weather Summary)

1990: Extensive damage was also reported from Climbing Hill to Correctionville. Microburst winds of 105 mph were recorded at the Spencer Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1991: Record cold occurred over the Pacific Northwest. New record low temperature marks were established at Burns, OR with 31° and Yakima, WA with 36°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2009: A tornado leveled a house knocks down power poles and overturns about a dozen railroad cars in Aurora, Nebraska. The tornado is rated EF2, with winds between 111 and 135 mph.

64 / 61  hour day 4 and hour 96 of clouds.  Perhaps we can break the low 70s today, but very unlikely to see breaks in the clouds and any blue skies yet.   Warmer tomorrow with breaks of sun and pending on how much could hit low - mid 80s ahead of storms which could drop locally 05 - .75 inches of rain in the heaviest spots Wed Pm- evening. 

Thursday with enoughh sun pushes areas to their next or first 90 before afternoon / evening storms arrive.   Fri - Sat transition to heat as ridge builds and rising heights to 594 - 600 DM into the northeast. 

Heat by Sunday with core or strongest heat looking to be in the Mon (6/23) - Fri (6/27) period.  

Beyond there overall warm - hot and wetter - near to above normal / more humid flow but elevated heights and heat building into the region in pieces.

6/17 : Last of the cloudy cool
6/18 - 6/19 : Warmer (90s on Thu with enough sun) but storms each night 0/5 - 0.75
6/20 - 6/28 :   Hot - could see strong heat  areawide more prominent Sun - Tue / Wed especially west
6/29 - Beyond :  Warmer / Wetter overall - Heat in pieces

 

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think this is going to be a 7+ day superheatwave ala 2013 or 2002 or 1999 or 1993.  I think we can hit 90 or higher from Sunday to Thursday which is a 5 day heatwave.

 

Most recently we'll  have to beat the Jul 19 - 24 , 2022 period. 

Meanwhile back at the cloudy ranch hour 60 of this cloudy period

Latest cold period

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

Jun 15:

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

Jun 16:

EWR: 69 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what is causing this flow to last for so many days near the solar peak of the year? you'd think the sun is powerful enough this time of the year to burn off any and all clouds.

Stalled out front  and This is our mini version of Cal (Southern) June Gloom with the onshore flow

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wild, 4 100+ days in just the first 13 days of the month lol

By the way, it looks like it's going to be cloudy on Wednesday and more rain on Thursday? Looks like we won't see sunny weather until Friday? In a way it's a good thing as it will reset the pattern back to sunny weekends.

 

I dont think its good in anyway - cash in on near term sun vs mid/long range projected sun/heat any day of the week.  I do think while it may rain/storms we will get some sun each of the Wed-Thu and Fri period s.

Dublin or Amsterdam like clouds -  ENE flow keep em stuck like puddy

Latest

Newark, NJ Jul - Aug 1988

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, 1944 really stands out wow, I wonder what was going on that summer to cause such intense prolonged heat (outside of that 11 year sunspot cycle lol.) 1944 must've been the hottest summer on record up to that point, I can't see any previous summer going back to the 1860s being as hot as 1944 was.  1896 did have that historic 10 day heatwave, but it didn't reach 100 degrees during that stretch.

 

Newark, NJ August 1944

You can argue 1988 August was hotter overall - look at the 4 89 degree consecutive highs

NYC (Central Park)

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, isn't the consecutive 95+ streak at Central Park from 1944 at 8 days? That's why I listed 1944 as the start of the super hot cycle that ended in 1955.  1944-1955 is twelve years and 5 of those summers were extremely hot.  It mirrors the 12 year period from 1991-2002 which also had 5 really hot summers.

Maybe climate change will add more to this intense heat and the next time we get this very hot 12 year cycle climate change superimposed on top of this 12 year cycle will break the records that were set in both those cycles?

The records I'm looking at are:

1944 8 consecutive 95+ days NYC

1948 3 straight days of 100+ at JFK

1949 5 days of 99+ at NYC  (the 8 days of 100+ at EWR was already exceeded in 1993, in the next very hot cycle).

1953 a 12 day and a 7 day super heatwave at NYC with 4 days of 100+ evenly split between the two superheatwaves, which included the highest temperature ever recorded in September at 102.

1955 16 95+ days at NYC and 14 95+ days at LGA

 

Second hot cycle

1991  39 90+ days at NYC

1993 39 90+ days at NYC (tied 1991), 9 days of 100+ at EWR, including 5 in a row (beat the record from 1949 during the last very hot cycle)

1995 July had our area's highest heat index on record (at LGA) followed by the driest August on record with widespread wildfires

1999 Two super heatwaves of 9 and 8 days length in July

2002 Two super heatwaves of 8 and 7 days length in July and August

 

 

NYC August 1944

Nearest sun is CT or Pittsburg

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wasn't alive in the 50s when those historic heatwaves occurred in 1953 and 1955 that haven't been matched since, but I was alive in the 1990s especially years like 1991 and 1993 when it was hotter here with less rain and more sunshine.  I feel like our springs have gotten cooler and wetter since then.

Central NJ has always been a heat paradise lol.

 

Which periods of the 50s are you referring to Liberty?   Just those two?   Otherwise some below normal / wet sumemr months in the 50s (area-wide)

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This may be one of the first times that we have seen a 100°+ signal from a 50 member ensemble mean over 200 hrs out.

 

Interesting in 2024 and 21 the ridge position switched and trended north over time witihin this timeframe, while this time appears to be stable.  We shall see.   That strong storm over the plains ND is pumping the flow SW and building the ridge.   

7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I can remember days in July & August when temperatures stayed in the low 60s and it rained all day. It's not common, but it happens once in a while. 

WX/PT

Most recent Jul 3, 2021  it was in the 60s to at 70 after some record heat and sandwiched between the next heat around Jul 7/8 of upper 90s.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why will it be wet in the long range Tony? Hot means dry most of the time, any *wet* would be confined to inland areas where scattered tstorms occur but these do not reach the coast most of the time.

Once the ridge relaxes around 6/27-28, heights remain elevated but it would turn/hot humid with chances for storms keeping rainfall normal - above.