SACRUS

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think this is going to be a 7+ day superheatwave ala 2013 or 2002 or 1999 or 1993.  I think we can hit 90 or higher from Sunday to Thursday which is a 5 day heatwave.

 

Most recently we'll  have to beat the Jul 19 - 24 , 2022 period. 

Meanwhile back at the cloudy ranch hour 60 of this cloudy period

Latest cold period

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

Jun 15:

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

Jun 16:

EWR: 69 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what is causing this flow to last for so many days near the solar peak of the year? you'd think the sun is powerful enough this time of the year to burn off any and all clouds.

Stalled out front  and This is our mini version of Cal (Southern) June Gloom with the onshore flow

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wild, 4 100+ days in just the first 13 days of the month lol

By the way, it looks like it's going to be cloudy on Wednesday and more rain on Thursday? Looks like we won't see sunny weather until Friday? In a way it's a good thing as it will reset the pattern back to sunny weekends.

 

I dont think its good in anyway - cash in on near term sun vs mid/long range projected sun/heat any day of the week.  I do think while it may rain/storms we will get some sun each of the Wed-Thu and Fri period s.

Dublin or Amsterdam like clouds -  ENE flow keep em stuck like puddy

Latest

Newark, NJ Jul - Aug 1988

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, 1944 really stands out wow, I wonder what was going on that summer to cause such intense prolonged heat (outside of that 11 year sunspot cycle lol.) 1944 must've been the hottest summer on record up to that point, I can't see any previous summer going back to the 1860s being as hot as 1944 was.  1896 did have that historic 10 day heatwave, but it didn't reach 100 degrees during that stretch.

 

Newark, NJ August 1944

You can argue 1988 August was hotter overall - look at the 4 89 degree consecutive highs

NYC (Central Park)

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, isn't the consecutive 95+ streak at Central Park from 1944 at 8 days? That's why I listed 1944 as the start of the super hot cycle that ended in 1955.  1944-1955 is twelve years and 5 of those summers were extremely hot.  It mirrors the 12 year period from 1991-2002 which also had 5 really hot summers.

Maybe climate change will add more to this intense heat and the next time we get this very hot 12 year cycle climate change superimposed on top of this 12 year cycle will break the records that were set in both those cycles?

The records I'm looking at are:

1944 8 consecutive 95+ days NYC

1948 3 straight days of 100+ at JFK

1949 5 days of 99+ at NYC  (the 8 days of 100+ at EWR was already exceeded in 1993, in the next very hot cycle).

1953 a 12 day and a 7 day super heatwave at NYC with 4 days of 100+ evenly split between the two superheatwaves, which included the highest temperature ever recorded in September at 102.

1955 16 95+ days at NYC and 14 95+ days at LGA

 

Second hot cycle

1991  39 90+ days at NYC

1993 39 90+ days at NYC (tied 1991), 9 days of 100+ at EWR, including 5 in a row (beat the record from 1949 during the last very hot cycle)

1995 July had our area's highest heat index on record (at LGA) followed by the driest August on record with widespread wildfires

1999 Two super heatwaves of 9 and 8 days length in July

2002 Two super heatwaves of 8 and 7 days length in July and August

 

 

NYC August 1944

Nearest sun is CT or Pittsburg

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wasn't alive in the 50s when those historic heatwaves occurred in 1953 and 1955 that haven't been matched since, but I was alive in the 1990s especially years like 1991 and 1993 when it was hotter here with less rain and more sunshine.  I feel like our springs have gotten cooler and wetter since then.

Central NJ has always been a heat paradise lol.

 

Which periods of the 50s are you referring to Liberty?   Just those two?   Otherwise some below normal / wet sumemr months in the 50s (area-wide)

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This may be one of the first times that we have seen a 100°+ signal from a 50 member ensemble mean over 200 hrs out.

 

Interesting in 2024 and 21 the ridge position switched and trended north over time witihin this timeframe, while this time appears to be stable.  We shall see.   That strong storm over the plains ND is pumping the flow SW and building the ridge.   

7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I can remember days in July & August when temperatures stayed in the low 60s and it rained all day. It's not common, but it happens once in a while. 

WX/PT

Most recent Jul 3, 2021  it was in the 60s to at 70 after some record heat and sandwiched between the next heat around Jul 7/8 of upper 90s.

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why will it be wet in the long range Tony? Hot means dry most of the time, any *wet* would be confined to inland areas where scattered tstorms occur but these do not reach the coast most of the time.

Once the ridge relaxes around 6/27-28, heights remain elevated but it would turn/hot humid with chances for storms keeping rainfall normal - above.  

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't really factor in when NYC and JFK don't factor in.  The 40s and 50s were quite a bit hotter.  I know you like to use micronets but perhaps if we had micronets in the 90s they would have been even hotter.  Hell, I'm going to start using my car thermometer lol.  Back in 1993 my car thermometer registered a temperature of 106 degrees driving through Queens which was only matched in 2010 and 2011.

 

Why don't we wire in everyone's car thermometers into the micronet that way we can cover the entire region?

There were 100 degree readings in NYC  2021 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (1981)
NYC: 96 (1994)
LGA: 96 (1991)
JFK: 92 (1962)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1946)
NYC: 52 (1927)
LGA: 55 (1961)
JFK: 52 (1965)

Historical:

1794: A frost was reported at Mansfield, MA, repeating a previous occurrence made on May 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours.

1906: On this date through the 17th, a tropical storm moved north out of the Caribbean, through the middle Florida Keys and exited into the Atlantic near West Palm Beach, gaining hurricane strength over the Atlantic. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum)

1921: Yosemite Valley, CA received a trace of snow, their latest on record for this late in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1924: A short, but intense heat wave in Wichita Falls, TX reached its peak on this date. The maximum temperature was 111°. This followed a high of 110° on the previous day, and was followed by 108° the next two days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel)

1964: A late season snowfall left a trace of snow over all of northern Maine. Guttenberg, IA set a record low for June with 40°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: On the 16th and 17th -Severe floods occurred in Colorado as 12 to 14 inches of rain fell on portions of the east slopes of the Rockies and the plains east of Denver. 14 inches fell in just three hours at Palmer Lake and Larkspur, CO with 12 inches at Castle Rock. A wall of water as high as 20 feet roared down both branches of Plum Creek into the South Platte River near Littleton and through Metro Denver. Flood waters spread to a width of a half mile in Denver. The citizens of Denver received reports of the flooding to the south and had a few hours to initiate evacuation procedures along the South Platte River greatly limiting the loss of life. Around midnight, the torrent crested at 25 feet above normal with the flow exceeding 40 times normal. This is the record flood on the South Platte and many of its tributaries. Many homes and businesses were destroyed. Damage totaled $230 million dollars. 8 people were killed. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History)

 

1972: Agnes was first named by the National Hurricane Center on June 16, 1972: It would go on to make landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida, on the afternoon of June 19. Hurricane Agnes would later cause catastrophic flooding in the mid-Atlantic states, especially Pennsylvania. Agnes caused over 100 fatalities.

1975: New York City--Two children were killed and seven injured by a single bolt of lightning when they took refuge from rain under a tree in Central Park.

1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992.

2008: Western and central New Yorkers experienced a rare widespread large and damaging hail event. For two hours, cell after cell rolled along a similar path across southern Niagara, southern Orleans, Monroe, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties many of which had hail of up to an inch-an-a-half diameter. Then more thunderstorms that formed later produced hail up to two inches in diameter, a rare event for western New York. One thunderstorm formed over Grand Island intensified as it moved southeast across the densely-populated northern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo. The golf-ball sized hail damaged thousands of automobiles as well as windows, roofs and awnings on homes. At the Amherst Middle School, the hail pierced 1200 to 1500 holes in the skylight roof. While property damage was significant, the damage to area crops was devastating. The hailstones pummeled fruits leaving divots and cracks. Vegetable plants were stripped of their leaves. Apples, peaches and pears that were not stripped from the tress and could have been sold for eating fresh will have to be sold for processing at a substantially lower cost because of being misshapen and bruised. The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a Disaster Declaration for Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans and Wayne counties. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating. 

62 / 58 day 3 and hour 58 of the latest cloud invasion. 0.89 in the bucket since Friday night.  Cloud lingering much of the next 36-42 hours keeping temps more like April but there is heat (light) at the end of the proverbial dingy grey tunnel we have been in.  Warmer by Wed but front is still pushing the boundary north to trigger storms but we should see some sun and spike temps into the 80s. Chance of storms Wed and Thu evening. 

Thursday, pending on clouds sees >16c 850MB temps and the chance of the next 90s for some and first for many.

In what could be a period of 8 of 10 90 degree days (6/20 - 6/30)  with heat building north and east and a strong ridge pushing heights to >588- 594 DM next week.  Watch for any undercutting the ridge to create any onshore for coastal sections.

 Hot period with an overall higher heights warm-hot but could be featuring storms potential in the beyond.

6/16 - 6/18 : Clouds cooler - warmer wed 0.25 - 0.45 inches forecast (scattered)
6/19 - 6/20 :  Warmer - hot in areas (6/19) 
6/20 - 6/30 :  Hotter with strong ridge into the EC  - could remain with storm potentials keeping it
Beyond  : overall wetter and hot

Newark 95 degree day season leaders

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yay some sanity has been restored !! 1993 at the top of the 100+ list lol. 1949 is a close second !!

LGA 95 degree days season leaders

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

are we even sure we're getting *heat*?  I just saw the forecast now says  the sun won't come out until next Thursday (why do I feel like Annie, saying that out loud in my head lol.)

 

And now we have a phantom rainstorm on Wednesday which didn't exist before now? I thought something can't be created from nothing-- where did this phantom rainstorm come from?

Clouds look to linger through Tue afternoon.

Wed looks to clear out and low- mid 80s.   Thursday is the hot day this week but could see some storms later in the day.

Newark 100 degree day season leaders

Light rain moving through the same areas as yesterday 0.22 in the bucket today (so far) total from the ugliness is 0.84

LGA 100 degree days season leaders

59 here at 11AM