SACRUS

The issue with central park is it being a mecca for the NYC region as a whole and the perception isnt truly representative of the urban/city metro areas. Head lines first 100 possible since 2012, first 90 degree day , hottest in years when many other sites have been hotter recently and have 90 degree days already this year.  TTN seems to be running lower than prior years but i havent looked to deep into it.

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

FWIW it isn't just the coastal areas that are seeing less extreme temperatures, Newark itself hasn't come close to matching the number of 100 degree days that happened in 1949 and 1993 either.  The data shows it.

 

Newark top 100 degree season leaders 2022 was only 3 off with 2 days 99

If you expand it to 99 and higher

On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said:

With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts

Past July 4th's  

 

 

 

Year.   23..21..20..19..18..17...16..15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95..94...93
 EWR: 91..84..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84..86..97
 LGA:. 87..79..88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84..83..92
 TTN:  85..79..89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81..83..92
 JFK:  85..75..85....97...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80..83..96
 NYC: 85..77.. 87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84..86..95

 

 

 

Long range 

GFS and ECMWF have warm / humid  both currently have early storms.  

90 degree days for June back to 2010, with the upcoming stretch should put this year solidly in the top 3/5

Through the first 2/3 of Jun.  Should average +5 over the last 10 days of the month to get the area solidly above normal for Junde despite that days of clouds and near or sub 70.

Departures thru 6/20 (pcp0

JFK: + 0.7 (2.23)
EWR: +0.3  (2.13)
NYC: -1.0 (2.24)
LGA: -1.5 (2.32)

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (2024)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 97 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 46 (1940)
NYC: 49 (1897)
LGA: 53 (1940)
JFK: 56 (1968)

Historical:

1886: TA destructive hurricane hit the Apalachicola – Tallahassee area of Florida on the summer solstice. Extensive damage was done in Florida and throughout the southeast by this storm. Damage was due mainly to extremely high tides.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1893 - On the first day of summer the temperature at Dodge City, KS, soared to 106 degrees during the midst of a blistering heat wave. The heat wave initiated a severe three year drought in the Central Plains Region. Ironically, at about the same time, heavy rains in the Mississippi Valley were causing the river to swell to its highest level of record at New Orleans, LA. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1919 - Seven heavy coach cars of a moving train were picked up and thrown from the tracks by tornado winds. A baggage car was set down thirty feet away from the rest of the train. (The Weather Channel)

1923: The island of Nantucket off Cape Cod had its earliest 90 degree reading and the only one ever in June. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954 - A severe hailstorm struck Wichita KS and vicinity causing nine million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1968: A line of severe thunderstorms raced across the state of South Dakota at 60 mph with winds that exceeded 100 mph in some areas with winds over 60 mph quite common. Many areas also received extensive hail damage with dime to golf ball size hail common and even a few areas were pounded with baseball size hail. At least, nine tornadoes and 11 separate funnel clouds were reported, although more likely occurred...they were probably obscured by darkness in the east and by blowing dust in the west. To that point in the state's history, the night's storms were likely the most damaging on record as they resulted in $10 to $15 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Phoenix, AZ, was drenched with 1.64 inches of rain late on the 21st and early on the 22nd to easily surpass their previous June rainfall record of 0.95 inches. The total for the month was 1.70 inches. (The Weather Channel)

1972: When Hurricane Agnes dropped 16 inches of rain over central Virginia in 1972, the James River flooded Richmond. Flood waters in the river reached 6.5 feet higher than the historical 200-year-old record. Richmond, VA experienced its worst flood of record as rains from Hurricane Agnes pushed the water level at the city locks to a height of 36.5 feet, easily topping the previous record of thirty feet set in 1771. Thirteen years later, a multi-million dollar floodwall was erected to prevent the rising waters of the river from overflowing again.  Agnes gave DC. 7.19 inches rain in 24 hrs. an all-time rec. 11 inches n. suburbs, 15.00 in Herndon, 16 in Chantilly, VA.

1987 - A tornado destroyed 57 mobile homes at the Chateam Estates trailer park northwest of Detroit, MI, killing one person and injuring six others. Total damage was estimated at 1.7 million dollars. Thunderstorms over Lower Michigan also drenched the Saginaw Valley with up to 4.5 inches of rain in less than six hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The first full day of summer was a torrid one, with afternoon highs of 100 degrees or above reported from the Northern and Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. Sixty-nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 110 degrees at Sioux Falls, SD, was an all-time record for that location. Highs of 103 degrees at Des Moines, IA, 102 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, 109 degrees at Huron, SD, 108 degrees at Sioux City, IA, and 101 degrees at South Bend IN were records for June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - The first day of summer heralded snow in the northern and central Rockies. In Colorado, 15 inches of snow was reported at the summit of Mount Evans and, in Wyoming, 18 inches was reported at Dickensen Park, west of Lander. Heavy rain continued in the eastern U.S. Huntsville, AL, reported a record 11.65 inches for the month, compared to the 0.17 inch rainfall total in June 1988. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A slow-moving thunderstorm dumped up to a foot of hail in southeastern portions of Colorado Springs, Colorado. Snowplows had to be used to clear a route through a major thoroughfare in the city. Heavy rainfall from the storm left up to 4 feet of water in city streets, trapping dozens of motorists (Associated Press).

77 / 62  the heat is on. Ridge building in to 594 DM with 850 MB temps spiking to >21C Mon - Wed.  Partly cloudy  90 for the hotter spots today, otherwise upper 80s.  Mid - upper 90s tomorrow, outside chance of century mark in the hottest spots.   Only clouds / seasbreaze woudl hinder 100s in the hot spots inland Monday, with Tuesday the hottest day with widespread 100s .  Wed a chance at the tri century if clouds / storms dont get in the way.  T

hu/ FRi deal with more storms as ridge wanes and we ride the periphery with storms and some stonger onshore. 

The weekend sees ridge re build with more heat in the 6/28 - 7/2 peeiod.   

Beyond there overall warm - hot / humid and wetter with storm chances. 

J

uly 4th forecast to begin as in long range  336 hours forecast range.

6/21 - 6/25 : Hot - mainly dry heatwave
6/26 -  6/27 : Storms reduce or break heat
6/28 - 7/2 :  heat builds back more 90s, storm chances
7/3 - Beyond :  Warm - Hot, Humid overall - wettter storms 

79 / 59 a gorgeous summer evening.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony, what's the earliest JFK has hit 100? I know they've hit 100 multiple times in my life on or just after July 4th.

July 4, 2010 101 degrees (hotter than either NYC or LGA)

July 5, 1999 102 degrees

 

102 July 1, 1963 all others were 99 in June

Highs:

 

EWR: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 84
TTN: 83

NYC: 82

All look to dry up beyoond CPA

Ended on a partly cloudy note Gorgeous day

Clouds and some showers storms back in PA look to fizzle out, but some clouds overnight and into the morning perhaps

81 / 56 partly cloudy as some clouds move in from the north

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what the heck was going on in 1949 lol, was that the 1940s version of 2010?

I wonder if JFK had many 100 degree days that summer, I know they had three in a row in 1948.

Come to think of it, 1948 and 1949 sound a lot like 2010 and 2011....

JFK highest was 99 in 1949:

July 1949 JFK Airport Weather

August 1949 JFK Airport Weather

September 1949 JFK Airport Weather

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last June set the highest 500mb height record for our area since 1952. It came in ahead of 2018 and 2013. 500 mb heights have been steadily increasing over the years. 

 

 

How did they calculate regional , continental 500MB heights then ?  how large was the network of radiosondes and balloons then vs now?  I havwe to go ovack to the 2001 heat dome in August and the 2011, 2013 how did they stack both were >594 DM from my recollection .

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No. The 500mb heights were lower back then. We just set the all-time 500 mb height record in June 2024 at 599dm for our area when we had the 100° heat last June. This time the magnitude of the heat and the duration of the ridge will be more impressive. Those older 100° heatwaves weren’t as long as the one experienced in July 2022 which ran 5 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

	5	2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24
	4	2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07
-	4	1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10
-	4	1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31
	3	2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23
-	3	2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03
-	3	2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09
-	3	1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04
-	3	1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11
-	3	1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30
	2	2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30
-	2	2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19
-	2	2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18
-	2	1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06
-	2	1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28
-	2	1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21
-	2	1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17
-	2	1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11
-	2	1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21
-	2	1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23
-	2	1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04
-	2	1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05
-	2	1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26
-	2	1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

Interesting how many balloons and radiosondes were deployed or utilized in 30s-40s and 50s to get regional or national 500MB observations.  Id argue those heat domes were just as high then with those readings.

78 / 57 and breezy

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Records:

 

Tony wow, so maybe 2012 will be an analog to this summer? 2010-2013 had summers similar to what we might be about to embark on....

 

 

I am not sure about 2012 being good reference for this year - we'll see.  I was thinking more along the lines of a warmer 2024 and perhaps evolving towards years that favor a warmer-hotter August / early Aug - early Sep.  Thus current ridge may throw a wrench - its a crap shoot.  

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this what happened in the 1944-1955 when we had those 7-12 day heatwaves with 95+ and 100+ temperatures?

I know you're all about climate change, but that was a cyclic pattern we had from 1944-1955 and which repeated itself from 1991-2002, so maybe that cycle is returning?

 

We have had heat domes the last few years, the majority went north and caused an onshore flow at times.  Some of the more impressing heat domes were the 2013 ridge backing in and hooking with the continental ridge, the 2011 ridge and the 2001 early August ridge.  Im sure the years you mentioned had similar heat domes to this and the 2012, 1988, 93 ones.  

Look to get through June with no Tropical activity or systems on the Atlantic side

Eric pumping the moisture feed into NM and the Upper Midwst wet the next week.   Next meanigful rain shot Sat night (isolated mainly north) and Wed pm / evening.

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:


EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)


Historical:

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974.

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

71 / 56 .  Breezy gorgeous day as the transition bridge to the strong ridge and building heat.  Hot Saturday through the end of the month with peak heat Sun - Wed /  with Mon-Tue hottest days area wide with century mark potential certainly in the hot spots but more area as well.  A nice weekend with storms looking to stay north and clouds clearing to allow sunday off to the races by the afternoon.    Storms Wed pm / night could spoil a 3 100 day streak.  Ridge rebuilds towards the 27th for next weekend 6/28 - 6/29. 

Beyond there overall warm - hot but looks like it could remain wetter with storm chances as ridge in west and along the coast keeps a more humid flow with building heat into the north and east.

Looks like dew points temps maxed out at 75/76 is the highest i see today.   Slowly dropping now into the upper 60s.

Ended with around 0.52