SACRUS

83 here and partly sunny.

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

No different than long range cold in winter, except many more posters in here go 6 to 12 when they see heat.  

Tendency has been a factor and needs to be weighted more for weakness undercutting the ridge and the center forcing the strongest heat west / north of coastal/NYC - east.    

We'll see how the heat/above normal 6/19 - 6/30 compares with this and the prior cool period in early June.  

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

Jun 15:

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

Jun 16:

EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

Jun 17:

EWR: 71 / 63 (-6)
NYC: 67 / 62 (-8)
LGA: 68 / 62 (-9)
JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

Just touched 80 and saw the sun after not seeing blue skies in 102 hours.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It rained less back then, I think there were less trees because it was a drier era.  Look at NYC's rainfall total from 1966, which was one of only two years in which NYC had 4 100+ days (the other was 1953-- in the same era)  In 1966, NYC only had 26 inches of rain, nowadays we get that in a few months lol. LGA hit 107 in 1966 exceeding the 106 that NYC hit in 1936 (also in the same era.)

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualprecip.pdf

Good reference

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it matches the 5 years in the 1991-2002 period Tony, of which 1993 is at the top.  1993 and 2010 being at the top doesn't surprise me, since they were also two of our driest years.  2022 did well to come in third place, matching 1944 and 1988.

 

I think we can agree that a drier hotter spell is preferred and it as been a wet stretch the past years but just as hot as some of those years on occasion.   

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The park may never see 100 F again. CC has made us way too humid for that. Our new summer norms are upper 80s/low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows with insufferable dews. Enjoy.

Highest recent 98 in 2021, 97 in 2022 at the park. 100 in 2012.  

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes Newark being inland has seen a rise in 90 degree days but not 95 or 100 degree days.  So the wetter climate has been tempering their extreme heat too.

But 1950 wasn't one of those hotter years like 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955.  But I agree about mins, they are definitely elevated compared to the previous era.

EWR top 95 + days were more recent than the 40s or 50s, top 5 includes 2021 and 2022.  You listed 5 years out of 20 that had record heat you can say the same between 2000 - 2020 / 2010 - 2024

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

EWR: 97 (1993)

now this is what a real hot summer is like....something we haven't seen in a long time.

Although EWR has in 2022 most recently if you are going by 90 degree days.

look at the record cool in the 50s

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)
JFK: 53 (1959)
 

Slow to clear

SSW wind now pushing humidity - Dewpoint 69 here

More thinning of the clouds and up to 73

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1993)
NYC: 95 (1929)
LGA: 95 (1994)
JFK: 94 (1962)

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)
JFK: 53 (1959)

Historical:

1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum)

1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel)

1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico.

1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

70 / 68 clouds (day 5 hour 108).  Should see some breaks and with the sun temps spike low to upper 80s in the hot spots.  Storms later this evening along the boundary as the warm front comes north further.  Tomorrow a shade hottter than today and again pending on clouds some get their first or next (2nd/ or 3rd) 90 degree reading.   Friday drier transition day before the heat builds in Satruday.  Euro keeps the mini MCS into New England Sat night into Sunday and the GFS gets rain here Saturday night and lingering debris clouds Sunday keeping the rainy weekend consecutive streak hope alive for those few hoping for more rain.  850 MB temps are >18c Sunday and then >21C Mon - Wed , peak heat Mon - Wed, Tue the century mark most probable.

We'll see if the wind / flow keep the N/W component and how hot it'll be.  Looking like starting tomorrow 8 of 10 90 degree days to close the month in the hot spots / wamrest scenario otherwise 5-7 of the next 10.

In the way beyond  Beyond there heights look elevated with ridging into the EC with an overall warm - hot but continued wet look.

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Models still all over the place. GFS is pretty cool for Sunday with low to mid 80's, rains Sunday AM and clouds stick around; while the 18z Euro is now roasting hot with good offshore flow and temps in the mid 90's. Euro is still very hot Monday but places right along the coast have a sea breeze and therefore cooler. GFS has a good sea breeze for most on Monday, about 10 degrees cooler than the Euro.

Looks like the GFS has some minor MCS into the area while the Euro has it into northern New England on Sunday.

On 6/16/2025 at 7:39 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Meanwhile back at the cloudy ranch hour 60 of this cloudy period

 

 

 

Latest cold period

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

Jun 15:

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

Jun 16:

EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

Jun 17:

EWR: 71 / 63 (-6)
NYC: 67 / 62 (-8)
LGA: 68 / 62 (-9)
JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

Up to 70 for a high today

some breaks in the clouds but rain into NNJ

Up to 68 - 70 in reach 

Just now, bluewave said:

The 5 boroughs of NYC has had 100° heat numerous times since 2013.  It’s even possible that 100° heat in recent years has made it to interior NW Nassau. But we don’t have enough coverage in that area to know.

Agreed andI had posted as long or longer stretched of heat since the 40s/50s including the 1988 and 2002 heatwaves for other parts of the forum.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

got anything for 2010 or 1993 or 1991 Tony?

Nothing met the criteria in june for heatwave with 99 degree or higher reading.

Breaks in the clouds

2024

EWR:

6/17: 92
6/18: 91
6/19: 93
6/20: 97
6/21: 100
6/22: 95 
6/23: 99
6/24: 84
6/25: 94 
6/26 : 98 

2021

EWR:

6/27:  95
6/28: 99 
6/29: 102
6/30: 103

2017:

EWR:

6/11: 94
6/12: 97 
6/13: 99

 

2012:

EWR:

6/20: 98 
6/21: 99 
6/22:  96


 

2011:

EWR:

6/7:  92 
6/8: 99 
6/9:  102

2008:

EWR:

6/7: 97
6/8: 96 
6/9: 99 
6/10: 99

1994:

EWR:

6/14:  98 
6/15: 101
6/16: 85 
6/17:  91
6/18: 96 
6/19: 102

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just set the all-time 500mb height record last June at 599 DM. So getting a ridge nearly this strong only a year later is pretty extreme. Several spots around the region made it to 100°.

This time around the models are forecasting 850mb temperatures which will be several degrees higher around 22C to 23C. So there is a good chance that the usual warm spots from Central NJ to interior Queens will see 100° or higher heat next week with how unusually well the ensembles agree.

Newark recently set their June all-time high of 103° back in 2021 which could be challenged. LGA recorded their 2nd highest June high temperature at 100°. Their all-time June high is 101° set in 2017.

 

 

 

It would be interesting to see the 500MB charts from (Jul 15-20) 2013 and (Jul  16 - 24) 2011 to compare vs the forecasted ridge as well as 2024 (June).   Jun 7-10 had some strong heat as well for if talking June specific.

Meanwhile  96 hours of sub 70 a mighty task for June

66 here.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is climo history, when you have heat starting in the latter part of June it doesn't peak until July.  Heat after June 20 usually indicates a very hot and very long summer. 1966, 1980 and 1993 being cases in point.

 

Im not sure I follow this?  Heat after jun 20th, meaning no heat until or starting  after jun 20th?