SACRUS

Record highs could be challenged 6/5, 6/6

6/5:
EWR: 92 (1966)
LGA:  91 (1953)

6/6:
EWR: 94 (2010)
LGA:  93 (2010)

6/7:
EWR: 99 (199)
LGA: 97 (2010, 1999)

Some clearing now working east into the area now near WNJ.  6/6 - 6/11 hazy hot and humid the likes we havent seen in early June in 10 years.    6/11 - 6/14 cool down and then ridge looks to rebuild into the EC.  As BW alluded to the peak of the heat goes north of the area but 850 temps >16C on a NW flow should get the area its first heatwave (even the park if it can dry out) between Saturday and Wednesday.  Think we are talking 90 / low 90s and maybe some mid 90s max.  Guidance dies look to build in more heat in the longer range so riding the overall warmer to hot theme this June seems like a good bet.

Onward and upward with temps we go, and the first chance at a heatwave during the 6/6 - 6/11 period.  Hazy hot and humid type week which have not been that common in the first half of  June the last 10 years outside 2010 / 2011.  You'd have to go back to 2008 for the high heat in early June but thats not likely next week more 90 / low 90s and mid 90s peak in the hot spots.

Beyond there models to indicate a cooldown in the 6/12 - 6/14 period but looking like an overall warmer first half of June that should carryover into the longer range and rest of June.

Still think there may be a weakness in the ridge and pseudo cut off can bring onshore and clouds Jun 5 - 8 ish, otherwise much warmer overall into mid June is looking liekly.

48 and some moderate rain really picking up again.  2.29 in the bucket with another inch to come.  72 hours removed from warm mid 80s on Thursday and likely 72 hours away from the next shot at 80.  Not sure how quick we clear out on Memorial day but it should be salvaged from this early winter like sham we have been muddling through . 

Beyond there GFS more west / closer  with ridging  along the Atlantic coast, ECM is more east and weakness in the flow towards Thu 6/3 - Sat 6/5 before ridge builds in fully.  Either way once past today, warmer times ahead (not too difficult to accomplish).  Bermuda high positions 6/2 onward with humid, warmer conditions and next shot at heat arriving by 6/6. Overall much warmer and stormier chances with brief cool down due mainly to onshore flow with any weakness caught up in the flow  for a time but much warmer than this anomalous weather.  

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Past memorial Days

EWR

Date --------------- Hi / low (rain)

2020 - May 25 : 77 / 58 ()
2019 - May 27:  82 / 64 ()
2018 -  May 28 : 71 / 56 ()
2017 -  May 29 : 61 / 57 (0.19)
2016 -  May 30 : 83 / 69 (1.57)
2015 - May 25 : 90 / 60 ()
2014 -  May 26: 88/ 60 ()
2013 -  May 27: 76 / 46 ()
2012 -  May 28: 91 / 70 ()
2011 -  May 30: 92 / 71 ().35)
2010 - May 31 : 89 / 66 (0.02)
2009 - May 25 : 84 / 63 ()
2008 - May 26 : 84 / 54 ()
2007 - May 28 : 86 / 66 ()
2006 - May 29 : 94 / 63 ()
2005 - May 30 : 78 / 58  ()
2004 - May 31 : 66 / 57 (0.36)
2003 - May 26 : 50 / 51 (1.29)
2002 - May 27 : 76 / 60 ()
2001 - May 28 : 75 / 58 (0.04)
2000 - May 28 : 66 / 54 ()
1999 - May 31 : 90 / 64 ()
1998 - May 25 : 70 / 60 (0.53)
1997 - May 26 : 72 / 55 ()
1996 - May 27 : 65 / 52 (0.13)
1995 - May 28 : 82 / 60 (0.95)
1994 -  May 30 : 88 / 58 ()
 

EWR record low

5/29: 40 (1936)
5/30: 39 (1949)
5/31: 44 (1938)

34 years ago we had the 1987 heatwave.  Rain tapering off now. 2.20 in the summer bucket since 3PM Friday.  Im expecting another inch and area east of the GSP into NYC/ LI and CT >2 on sunday am.

Past memorial Days

EWR

Date --------------- Hi / low (rain)

2020 - May 25 : 77 / 58 ()
2019 - May 27:  82 / 64 ()
2018 -  May 28 : 71 / 56 ()
2017 -  May 29 : 61 / 57 (0.19)
2016 -  May 30 : 83 / 69 (1.57)
2015 - May 25 : 90 / 60 ()
2014 -  May 26: 88/ 60 ()
2013 -  May 27: 76 / 46 ()
2012 -  May 28: 91 / 70 ()
2011 -  May 30: 92 / 71 ().35)
2010 - May 31 : 89 / 66 (0.02)
2009 - May 25 : 84 / 63 ()
2008 - May 26 : 84 / 54 ()
2007 - May 28 : 86 / 66 ()
2006 - May 29 : 94 / 63 ()
2005 - May 30 : 78 / 58  ()
2004 - May 31 : 66 / 57 (0.36)
2003 - May 26 : 50 / 51 (1.29)
2002 - May 27 : 76 / 60 ()
2001 - May 28 : 75 / 58 (0.04)
2000 - May 28 : 66 / 54 ()
1999 - May 31 : 90 / 64 ()
1998 - May 25 : 70 / 60 (0.53)
1997 - May 26 : 72 / 55 ()
1996 - May 27 : 65 / 52 (0.13)
1995 - May 28 : 82 / 60 (0.95)
1994 -  May 30 : 88 / 58 ()
 

Was down to 45 last night and now up to a balmy 48 on this what feels more like Christmas Weekend.  2.01 in the bucket and still raining anyone who was fearing a long lasting dry spell or even a drought should just look at the last and most recent 15 similar dry spells and how they ended much like this, with a deluge.   Reports of power outages last night with the stiff NE wind and gusts to 30 + MOHs.  Socked in clouds  through and perhaps even Memorial day itself.

This does look to be just a speed bump in the overall switch to warmer that started in mid May, albeit a speed bump that busts a few tires (worst timing too).  Ridging building along the east coast should dominate the next week to ten days with more SW flow estabishing June 2nd 'bermuda high.  Warm and humid with spikes of heat and brief cooldowns and storms firing routinely.  The park may need a week to dry out before approaching 90 but other warmer spots, including LGA may see 90s as soon as Jun 6th. 

So hang in there a 50 more hours and it should be right back to a more classic hazy humid and warm - hot before you know it.  I think the GFS may be a bit too cloudy / wet Tue - Fri this week, we shall see. Here's hoping anyway

The last hour or so before louds arrive and linger the next 60 hours with rain and NE / ENE winds on what should be the coolest Memorial Day weekend. 65 degrees now and should be the warmest readings  till Sunday. 

This is a speed bump in the overall warmth we started in Mid May as guidance continues to show ridging to build along the east coast / Bermuda High type weather.  Humid warm and chance or some heat on occasoin Jun 2 - Jun 6.  Beyond that perhaps brief cooldown before heights rise again.  

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

these little droughts always have a deluge lurking around the corner...I expect the mini drought will be washed away soon...

You can count on it, at least during the last 15 years for sure.

0.30 in the bucket with the storms yesterday after a high of 91. w  Enjoy the sun and warmth today,  we;ll see if the warmer spots can grab 90, it may be close.  Big speed bump for summer weather coming on the first summer weekend Fri (5/28) - Sun 5/30) cool and wet pending on breaks of rain and some breaks in clouds as Don and BW have alluded to, many spots in stuck in the 50s.  Monday does look to transition to warmer once we clear out.  Warmer more humid times ahead, seeing ridging showing up along the coast Jun 2 - 6 (Classic Bermuda high position??) but bias humid vs heat.  We'll see if we can add 90s or get NYC/LGA crew the first of the season in that window id say one  is on the table.  It does look to get warmer again way out there in 6/8 timeframe. Overall warm and wetter, sounds familiar.  June has been the month where outside of 2010, 2012 featured limited heat the last decade or so.

5/26 highs 

EWR: 94
PHL: 92
New Brunswck: 91
TTN: 89
TEB: 89
BLM: 88
NYC: 86
LGA: 86
ACY: 84
JFK: 75
ISP: 72

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

 

2021:

PHL:  3 (April: 0; May: 3  ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  )
EWR: 4 (April: 0; May: 4  ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
TTN: 1 (April:0 ; May: 1  ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: )
LGA:  (April: 0; May: ; June: ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
ACY: 2  (April: 0; May:2 ; June:  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
TEB:  (April: 0; May: ; June:  ; Jul: 1  ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
NYC:  (April: 0 ; May:  ; June: ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
JFK: 2  (April: 0; May: 2 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: )
ISP:1  (April: 0; May:1 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:   ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 3  (April: 0 , May: 3, June: , July: 23; Aug:  ;Sep:;  )

89 degree days

EWR: 1
ACY: 2
PHL: 1
TTN: 2
NYC: 1
ISP: 1
TEB: 2 89

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5/26

EWR: 94
PHL: 92
New Brunswck: 91
TTN: 89
TEB: 89
BLM: 88
NYC: 86
LGA: 86
ACY: 84
JFK: 75
ISP: 72

3PM Roundup

EWR: 90
PHL: 89
TTN: 87
New Brnswck: 87
TEB: 86
BLM: 85
LGA; 85
NYC: 84
ACY: 84
JFK: 72

ISP: 71

Clouds burning off quicky now and should see some breaks of sun in the next hour.  

71 / 63 mostly cloudy here.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Low level clouds will likely burn off mid morning and give way to a scorcher.  DT in the low to mid 60s.  Warmer spots and perhaps even LGA/NYC could touch 90 today with enough  sunshine and if storms arrive later .  Tomorrow dry and warm and outside chance the warmer spots get to 90 otherwise mid/upper 80s.  Friday - Sunday unsettled, cloudy and onshore flow with rain >1.00" and i the extreme 2.00".  Looks to dry our on Memorial Day and warm up as we start June.  Next heat spike being hinted on guidance on/around Jun 6th.

Clouds look to linger through at least the early afternoon.  Wed should get most to 90, Thu sneaky warmth and maybe some 90s if is mostly sunny in the warmer spots before clouds.  Fri - Sunday look cloudy, cool and wet >1.00" would be welcome just bad timing with the holiday weekend.  Warmer by Memorial day and into early June.  Tracking the next heat spike would place timing of heights rise between Jun 6 - 9 period.  Kind of onshore-ish before then and we'll see how much rain we can get in the buckets.

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

BLM replaced JFK? I think NJ plenty well represented on that list already with 7 lol, spread the wealth

JFK: 92

missed the paste.

5/23

ACY: 94
EWR: 94
JFK: 92
PHL: 92
BLM: 92
TTN: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TEB: 89
ISP: 89
LGA: 88
NYC: 88

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

 

2021:

PHL: 2 (April: 0; May:2  ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  )
EWR: 3 (April: 0; May: 3  ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
TTN: 1 (April:0 ; May: 1  ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: )
LGA:  (April: 0; May: ; June: ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
ACY: 2  (April: 0; May:2 ; June:  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
TEB:  (April: 0; May: ; June:  ; Jul: 1  ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
NYC:  (April: 0 ; May:  ; June: ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
JFK: 2  (April: 0; May:2 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: )
ISP:1  (April: 0; May:1 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:   ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 2  (April: 0 , May: 2, June: , July: 23; Aug:  ;Sep:;  )

89 degree days

EWR: 1
ACY: 2
PHL: 1
TTN: 1
NYC: 1
ISP: 1
TEB: 1 89

 

 

5/23

ACY: 94
EWR: 94
JFK: 92
PHL: 92
BLM: 92
TTN: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TEB: 89
ISP: 89
LGA: 88
NYC: 88

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models back to dry for the next 7-8 days after showing a deluge by the Euro yesterday

Its all goning to be depend on the flow and if any ULL can cut off and where that is, west of the area or like the prior ecm showed.   still would keep an eye on next weekend (Fri - Sun) period.  

Some late afternoon maxes today with some more clearing and peak 850.   Clouds definitely ate into early afternoon heating.