CaryWx

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tor?

Well it's not even astro winter yet and we are only at 35N so my expectations aren't there yet. I do get your larger point though No cold in sight, anywhere, is worse than our usual 'delayed' winter at this point.

Maybe I'm reading this incorrectly but I see a projection out to the 23rd and certainly while in the CoD is still in phase 7. How is this a 5-6 regime forecast?

No worries. The coming winter STJ will solve our problems

Also from NWS... Winter Forecasting Tools: Here’s What’s New at NOAA this Year This winter, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. In November, the experimental Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (PWSSI) will become operational. The product will enhance communication with external partners, media, and the general public by graphically depicting the likelihood of potential societal impacts due to expected winter hazards over a 7-day period. This is complemented by a version of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) based on the official National Weather Service forecast of the most likely conditions over the next three days. NOAA’s Weather Prediction and Climate Prediction Centers will continue to use Winter Key Messages, which highlight the agency’s most essential information for upcoming winter weather, including extreme cold and heavy snow potential. These can be found under “Top Stories” on the Weather Prediction Center’s and Climate Prediction Center’s websites. This winter, NOAA will complete its implementation of Impact-Based Warning Tags for Snow Squall Warnings. Snow Squall Warnings are warnings issued for short duration intense bursts of snow and wind leading to whiteout visibility and possible flash freezes on roads. To distinguish high-impact snow squalls, the National Weather Service will issue impact-based Snow Squall Warnings using the “Significant” tag for events that pose a substantial threat to safe travel. Wireless Emergency Alerts, which are emergency messages sent by authorized government alerting authorities through wireless carriers, will be limited to only high-impact Snow Squall Warnings with the Snow Squall Impact Tag of “Significant.”

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2023-24-us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north

That plus the Vancoverish ridge and western Alaskan trough

Skeptical right now that midwest blast makes it into the southeast but we'll feel some effects east of the apps.

I think we need to give NWS a little room here. A bit premature

96.7? Don't think it hit that in my neck of the woods

Ryan Hall is not really calling for a strong nino this year but it's still early.

What's a good Nino signal for next year for the southeast? I think no more than moderate. Maybe 1.5-1.75?? Asking the experts. Thanks

If that ULL at 500 on the 18z gfs could just get some intensity going we'd have good storm

Looks like a mtns and foothills storm to me unless something changes

I actually think you're being a little generously east here and I'm not usually in your grouse boat

From NWS RAH longer forecast... Models have trended significantly slower with the trough, with a closed low even developing and tracking to our south, helping a surface low deepen off the NC coast. This would result in a wetter solution for our region than previously thought, so bumped up POPs to chance during this period. Northerly flow around the low and a weak high over New England may result in temperatures cold enough for some snow or mixed rain/snow. The 12z GFS is especially aggressive with depicting this potential, but even the 12z ECMWF trended more in this direction. Model soundings appear it would be more of question of rain vs snow instead of ice. Almost half of 12z GEFS at least have some measurable snow in some part of central NC, with less CMC ensembles and only a small percentage of ECMWF ensembles showing it. Uncertainty this far out is quite high, and would like to see more consistency in the models. Even still, the latest model trends at least justified introducing a chance of rain or snow in most places Saturday night. Because of the uncertainty in the overall setup this weekend, confidence in temperatures this weekend is low, but for now forecast highs are slightly below normal.

Released a weather virus? Darn clever those Chinese!

I usually give it until Feb 20th on the calendar. If there is nothing showing on the 10day once we get to 2/20 I tend to check out because now were hoping for the 2nd week of March or beyond for the LR proggs and well...that's just betting against climo and you're staying in the casino too long.

Isn't this pretty late to make any difference winterwx wise. Even for NC outside the mountains? Downstream effects would be after Feb 25th right?

4 'ninas in a row is highly rare. When was the last one?

That SSW will be too late I'm afraid

Well, the OP run anyway