buckeyefan1

GSP's take on Friday .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EST Tuesday: A positively-tiled upper trough will dig across the western CONUS during the beginning portions of the forecast period, while an attendant frontal boundary stretches from the Southern Plains, through the ArkLaTex region, and into the OH Valley and northeastern CONUS. As the pattern evolves through the period, expect the frontal boundary to sag into the Southeast Wednesday night into Thursday as the parent low lifts into the northeastern CONUS. With a surface high shifting offshore and the flow aloft gaining a southwesterly component, deep moisture advection and low-level convergence will lead to a swath of precip to push into the CFWA during the alluded timeframe. With a 40-50 kt LLJ and scattered upper forcing to go along with high PWAT values (1.00"-1.50+"), expect precip rates to be enhanced, which ultimately may lead to a low-end hydro threat. Model guidance continue to show the alluded frontal boundary stalling over the CFWA Thursday, which may lead to an extended period of precip. As a result, likely to categorical PoPs will remain in the forecast on Thursday. While the frontal boundary remains stalled over the region, the positively tilted trough will strengthen into a vertically stacked low over the Four Corners region and shift to the Southern Plains Thursday night. The surface low riding underneath will undergo cyclogenesis and rapidly strengthen as it rides along the stalled boundary and lifts in the mid-MS Valley. The stalled boundary over our CFWA will activate into a warm front in response and lift well north of the CFWA by Friday morning. This will set the area under a stout warm sector regime, ahead the approaching frontal system. Underneath the aforementioned warm sector, an environment favorable for severe weather will be in store. The cold front attached to the surface cyclone will be strongly forced as it encroaches the CFWA by Friday afternoon. Model guidance continue to support 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area as the front enters the CFWA. Great deep layer shear and unidirectional hodographs support the development of a squall line as the main frontal zone swings through the CFWA. Mini-supercells could form out ahead of the front as well. In this case, all three severe hazards will be possible with damaging straight-line winds and a few embedded tornadoes being the main focus. With the forward progression of this system being relatively quick, any hydro threat will be low and localized. One caveat being thrown into this forecast is the timing between global models and the pesky NAM. Global models are still in great consensus and that the main frontal band will push through the area during peak heating. On the other hand, the NAM is slower in the front`s progression and appears to push the front across the CFWA just after peak heating, which could limit the overall severe threat as a result. This will be a trend to watch out for, especially once the hi-res models start to get a handle on this setup on Wednesday. We urge everyone to continue monitoring the forecast leading up to Thursday and Friday as it will change between now and then, but the run-to-run consensus between all operational models and ensembles makes it hard to believe that there won`t be at least a low-end severe threat across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Temperatures through the period will be well-above normal.

I was surprised as well, but I'm just an old weenie who doesn't have to answer to the public

It’s looking rough Thursday and Friday

Yay fornicating tree season! said no one ever

Outlined at day 6 and while it has plenty of time to change, it sure has my attention.

That is correct I do. Long story short, some people just suck.

That little blue dot in southern Greenville county is mby, so lock it in

The entire eastern us assures me that we are not alone in our misery

Here's the end

hr 78 12Z euro

12z Dr No at 66 is a touch southeast than it was at 06z

The 18z gfs is still faster than it was at 0z

I'd love to see the EE rule apply

For now, I'm saying middle of the road between the gfs and euro as we all know the euro loves to hold stuff back. Still plenty of time for it to go either way

12zgfs 12z icon 12z gdps

Pinned Letssssssssssssssss gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Euro 06z at 90 0Z at 96

fwiw...Dr No has the low a touch stronger and a touch south than 0z at hr 72

Oh Canada ICON