pasnownut

Well said....well said.

after taking a peek, yeah it looks like GFS ticked a tad better for LSV'rs (as already suggested). Secondary a tad further E helped a bit as well. Good to see. Thermals responded and 540 came SE a tad. Good step.

and just looping over GFS, same trend noted as well (regarding primary coming further SE). We dont want that. If that continues, its trouble for us IMO

looping back over CMC, 0z had primary notably se, and that is a red flag IMO. We need primary to stay farther westl, and die a faster death, and IF it holds on longer, it screws up our once again precious thermals down this way. Also want to watch secondary and how quickly it pops off coast. The sooner the better.

To add to his post, I'd think that suggests more ZR than IP, as the 925 to surface is below freezing, but there is a pretty stout layer 925 up to 500 is above, so thats a large wedge to melt flakage, and a small wedge of frozen to refreeze IMO.

I'd think it fair to say that goalposts are narrowing this far out, but as we all know. Even 50 miles either way on the Susky snow fence, makes a big diff in this subforum, and were not that close yet, so caution warranted. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride no matter how the chips fall for me. I love the thrill of the chase in finding storm patterns, and saw this potential evolution from last week (doubters can go back and find the exchange I had w/ Mag). It fits the pattern, so why not? Enjoy the ride. You could be in for a nice start to winter.

Bingo. All they can do is discuss potential to raise awareness. Smart. As stated many times, downplaying or hedging to the warm side is more often right than wrong, but we all know Susqu valley usually sits on both sides of the snow fence....

yeah I saw the worried ones suggesting that everyone was buyin in to one big run. I was sitting in a tree stand when I saw it and was glad I was harnessed i when I did While everyone here likes to post fun maps....EVERYONE here knows that one good run does not a storm make. Its great to see potential lining up, and all a big run does is show exactly that....potential for fun - especially when the pattern supports the models. Lets have some fun, and even if I end up jipped (as i typically expect w/ events like these), It's all good.

Well it looks like I came back to some fun trackin times ahead. Overnighters looking decent for many in true central and has that I81 special look to it. Nice to see chances lining up in the mid/extended as well. I've got some catchin up to do, but looking forward to seeing how all of this plays out. 18z last evening sure was a run that we havent seen in a while...even if only digtal snow, it was nice. 0z looked to hold serve and 6z was a tick SE. Just need thermals to be a tad better for us SE'rs to get a little as well. 6z helped in that regard, but thats alot of details to sort at 96 hrs out. Not sure if we can pull it off down here, but for the good ones, us LSV'rs know we must smell the rain for you norther/westers to cash in. Just nice to see that pattern taking shape.

Yeah looks to be coming back around to something for us. Another item of note is that most events are starting to have some winter in them...and not just wet. But we do have quite the cluster F to get through mid next week. Glass 1/2 full....but dont drink it....it may be tainted.

I saw the HH runs and just giggled to myself....while not worth discussing....yet, they sure looked rather "dreamy", and may be a sign that better times surely are on the way. Unfortunately what HH gave us, the bar bouncer tossed out the front door later that evening.

Had to run to Members 1st in Enola for a quick meeting, and yeah, its soupy out. Crossing 81/15 in Enola, you couldnt see the water and windows were open.

what if we start a gofundwinter, and make you the recipient of fundage to come back east. Just keep your snow dome out west....K?

Yesterday when Mag and I had an exchange regarding next weeks mess, I suggested that a few years back we had a system cut so far west that some energy was ejected into the block in the east, it created a bit of wintery fun for us. This photo depicts that very thing for next week. Not saying its happening, just sharing info to back up my statement from yesterday. Mind you it may be gone after the next run, but IF this evolves as suggested, this isnt outside the rhealm of possibilities.

Go look at the last few runs of the GooFuS post 200. Fish dont flop that much. Thats why I've always been of the mindset that Op runs need to be used/analyzed outside 7 days with a sizeable grain of salt, and only inside 3 can we really start to sort out details. Especially during times of transition (pattern wise). I'd wager most knowledgeable ones would agree with that assessment, as Ens runs are a better tool beyond a week out...and they are taken with a slightly smaller grain of salt.. (yeah, the nickname is back for the foreseeable future for me).

Oh the irony. Go look at NAM. No storm to fund, but the cold press continues and is notably further south. From cutterville right to suppression depression.... Cant make this stuff up.....or maybe we can??

yeah we need mood flakes for sure. I'll be up north and some well south of me may be cashin in a bit. My luck. IF CAD feature continues to build on the next few runs, It's not unreasonable to think yall may be in for a little love from above.

Dont know of anyone annoyed by him, but he is not on this board (to my knowledge), and disco can be had while waiting for Trainer to post his thoughts....good or bad. Thats all I'm saying. One of the reasons I used to go into the MA thread, is that while it often ended up in a dumpster fire, there were many that brought a bunch of good/useful convo to their thread, and most left me in because I did the same...knowing I was an "outsider" to there sub. We had some great discos and yes sometimes disagreements, but thats part of the fun/learning...isnt it? Some good ones have left there because of the BS, and I guess I'm hoping that doesnt happen here.

bragger........ jealousy has many faces.....mine being one of em. Try to enjoy it for us ridge folk.

sheeesh....now that were finally through that trainwreck..... Ok since some might be a tad gun-shy right now.....I'm not. verbatim, the CAD feature sponsored by NAO that I alluded to yesterday (and Mag supported today) is starting to show up a bit better and is reflected on surface map. 540 creeping back SW which opens that window a tad for a few of us snow starved geeses. I'm rather confident that most of the smart guys will agree.....and since inside 84, well worth the disco. Looks like most of the A team models now have frozen of some sort showing up.

Dude, keep up with the MU. That cat knows his stuff. Just understand that more than one person can offer good insight....and yeah on some occasions, even you and I.

I am a minority in all of the sports post banter (and yes, wish it was in a banter thread), but to hold true to my last statement, this isnt about me.....and many folks here seem to enjoy many sports far more than I....that's totally fine. On the other hand, to have to put up with all of the sports garble, and then share what I do and get bashed/ignored because MU, MA forum, or a red tagger didnt say it, is bullshit and I'll call it that any and every time. I'm sure Mag knows and understands that we respect and enjoy his and any others visits/disco as often as he can, but that doesn't mean we cant have convo without him or others more knowledgeable chiming in. Many of us here have varying levels of interest and knowledge, and some of us go a little extra to offer credibility to our offerings, if not for being correct, for the sake of conversation/discussion. Most of us get along reasonably well, but this petty bullshit game is old and seen by all. Some of you seem to have forgotten what this board is about. Ok now I'm done.

Man I can remember the good ol days when a good handful of us that have weather knowledge/interest chatted up patterns/potential and what we thought might be coming down the road. It was some great times and a bunch of us had fun doing it and learned so much from it. Dismissing my or any other posters convo on a board, because one or 2 didnt author (or like the author), is a real damn shame. If discussing weather was only about being correct, there would be NOONE left here or on the board. I throw up thoughts/reasoning and back it up w/ real maps/data, and not just heresay or info from others (without creds being given). I'm going to reiterate one more time, this isnt MY board, and I will never act like it. Nor will I ever suggest how things should roll, but the above is just bad form and likely what has lead to much less chatter as the new disco board cops seem to wanna set the tone for how they like it. Its seen by all...not just me. I dont care who you are, what your degree (or weather course that you took in college) is.... Post away... and if youre on base with your assessment, well done...and if your not, someone may discuss or debate why not, and thats just what this intended for....for fun. Rant over. I hope many continue to chat it up and not feel otherwise. Many peeps here are capable of good chatter, but if yall dont wanna do that and the Wizard wins.......enjoy the crickets.....

Come back east then would ya...............

coming from the king of 240 hr Op maps.....what a giggle fest. When done with maps/indicies etc, that discuss options/possibilities, that is EXACTLY what this forum is for. And fwiw, it sounds like my assesment was a reasonable one that led to some convo. (Mag please feel free to let me know if not). Let us know when you, MU or the MA forum says we can chat.....LMFAO. Until then we'll keep the weather chat to a minimum, and you can go ON AND ON AND ON about all of your sports BS, that many put up w/ without a peep. At last check (been a long while), many most down there are just like most of us....with a few red taggers sprinkled in....but whatever. Just another feeble attempt. Hit the ignore button kid. LOLOLS.....and more LOLS