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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    This trended better for you fwiw. See post above. Less ridging would help you westers. Mind you this is just telling w/ that models show. I'm gonna check ens guidance and see if any support for op is there but dont have time right now. Trying to wrap up the day, but i'm casually interested for the north country post Turk day.
  2. pasnownut
    @AtomixwxAnd regarding that map posted, its just a byproduct of less ridging on 500 panels, and a slightly more suppressed look here in the east, so the surface responded accordingly.
  3. pasnownut
    Yeah, I'm a tad leary my self. It was more of a response to the Ji cancelling winter for the 8,998,412th time in his life
  4. pasnownut
    While still not sure how March will play out. I dont miss the madness in their thread but miss convo w/ some really great folks. just got tired of weeding through all the crap. Hope it's gotten better. Havent looked in eons.
  5. pasnownut
    Yeah it used to be fun down in the MA forum....until it wasnt. At least when he ranted, he'd eventually sprinkle in so good stuff to validate his reasonings. I bet he'd be a hoot to grab a pint w/.
  6. pasnownut
    But when weather is coming....he is a mental furball.
  7. pasnownut
    Then you better enjoy every flake of this.
  8. pasnownut
    looks like several chances beyond the Turk Eve storm. Hoping its wavelenghts changing and southern stream starting to show itself. You can see the southern connection here
  9. pasnownut
    Yeah, agreed. 0z shows a miller b that jumps over us after some modest precip hits our area. 6z stepped away from the cutter look as primary pops east of us. Not putting much weight in anything yet, but hoping that it continues to step away from cutter (which it might be seeing what the Ens guidance is showing at 500's - forcing energy further south). Dunno
  10. pasnownut
    Happy Friday all. Looking at overnights, and notable disparity between Op and Ens guidance regarding next week (Im just talking 500s as we need them right before worrying about surface maps). IF GEPS/GEFS/EPS are correct, a less cutty and colder solution would have merit. IF GFS/Euro Ops are correct, warmer wet wins. This will be interesting to see how Pre Turk Day event evolves, as it may give a clue to what models have a clue for the upcoming "fun" months.
  11. pasnownut
    Believe at your own risk...hehe
  12. pasnownut
    GFS Op is notably deeper wrt trough/thickness's here in the east, as the Ens guidance still has it, just less pronounced. Regardless...yeah colder times from Turk day and beyond for a decent stretch. Wouldnt rule out normal snow shower spots getting some chances of flakeage, and if that weekend energy can hold together a little better than most have done this year, then theres a window of opp as well.
  13. pasnownut
    Enjoy the time w/ family.
  14. pasnownut
    I miss having my goldens as they, like yours....loved snow.
  15. pasnownut
    no matter how next week does or doesnt happen (12z cuts to miller B well north of us), the pattern beyond APPEARS to be more fun, w/ some blues close enough to heighten spirits as we get into the holiday swing of things.
  16. pasnownut
    Since we are clarifying, I'm assumed your idea of FUN is colder and seeing blue popping up on maps. Not necessarily shoveling snow outta ones driveway. Thats how I took it anyway.
  17. pasnownut
    Ens guidance supports the reload and is not too dissimilar to the Ops on the 500MB loops (generally speaking). Thats the continuity we need. NAO/AO/PNA are all workable in that timeframe and dont go against what the models are showing, and supportive of the slight ridge/trough regime being advertised on globals. Good signs.
  18. pasnownut
    Really liking next weeks weather (and beyond). Going to be nice to hear chatter about flakes flying and getting into the holiday season. Saw 3 folks with christmas stuff out and lit last evening.
  19. pasnownut
    Total QPF on GFS suite shows east getting some appreciable precip as well. Lets hope the pattern change delivers. Not sure how much coin to throw in, but I'm surely not foldin...
  20. pasnownut
    and to add to above, broad slight ridging out west w/ skightly +PNA and some troughiness here in the east, but at times has a zonalish kinda progression, but not a horrid SE ridge by any means.
  21. pasnownut
    It definately looks better if one holds much weight in Ens guidance, it will surely be a pattern that might give a little to some of us. Cherrypicked for weenie purposes. if one rolls through GFS ENS 2m temp anomalies, lots n lots of peeps gonna b feeling the blues.
  22. pasnownut
    GFS op at 6z showed multiple opps for some early fluffy stuff. 3 distinct chances w/ LES to follow most. Were it mid winter, many would be pretty happy w/ what it shows. Boiled down to reality, it still looks like early winter is trying to make its presence known for a period.
  23. pasnownut
    why are you even here?? You offer little but troll lots....
  24. pasnownut
    I'm smoking 1 this weekend before any potential early winter shenanigan's occur, so bring it....
  25. pasnownut
    Yeah, it's dry for sure. Hoping some of the chances come to light in the next week. I fear they may go poof for a while longer....just like our snow does.
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