pasnownut

Agreed. Those of us winter fans finally have something legit?? to chat about and there is not a damn thing wrong with chatting about it, no matter the end result. He is most welcome in the climate change page and he can tout is warmingsta stuff all day long.

Yep, mentioned that over lunch. SER/WAR while not really stout, is ever present in some fashion. GFS Op vehemently disagrees w/ ENS in mid range... so a battle not so royale may ensue. Ens guidance likely the way to go at that range.

I'm stifling weather disco....sure thing.... troll

he cant tell....its more fun for him to lurk.

so lemme get this straight.....you dont want us to talk about weather on a weather board? I really feel for some of you. In case you've not noticed, your schtick is old and no longer appreciated. Still waiting for you to add value to the disco as to why "it aint happening"......

Troll elsewhere. Verbatim this is PLENTY cold, and vort pass is south. Worst/warmest panels shown for possible event and next panels are better thermally while precip is still in area. Its juvenile when peeps like you get your rocks off on trolling, and add little to conversation. Noone is saying its happening, but verbatim, its got a chance as depicted. Show us what you see that says its not snow, or low ratio at best.....we'll wait.

Back from northwoods. Great time w/ friends/family. Nooner GFS shows a see saw wrt temps, but with many chances thrown in, maybe we can get something to pop (like Mitch just posted regarding mid next week), as verbatim vort pass is under us all the way, and while more of a progressive look, if timed right, it has a chance. As chatter of a warm start to Dec has been thrown around by some in other circles, its not a close the curtains look, but I hope next week can hold as ENS guidance has ridging of various proportions here in the east. Looks warmish and hope to be wrong for first 1/2 of Dec. if we can eek a score or 2 in, all the better.

thats where the "off hour - we toss" derived from. I've read previously about the off hour data used, and have seen the back n forth banter about some data being limited on off hour runs. Not sure what the real deal. Something about buoy data...dont remember. In this age of instant data/info availability, one would thing that would no longer be an issue. I just threw it out because a suggestion of dry was being thrown out, so i did some digging and ens guidance suggested otherwise, and beyond 5 days, I'm still leaning to ens guidance and look at op to see if the signals agree or diverge. They diverged, but looking at overnights, they dried up a little, so maybe the dryish signal has merit. Happy Turk day.

Nooner GFS at 114 is juicin up the atmosphere a bit, and 540 is over the hot bed of LSV Signals been there for a while now, so lets hope we see it grow and not fade. Norher and wester folk may approve this post.

It looks and feels just fine. Not sure most of us (non stat folks) really care if its upper 40's or lower 50's on 11/22. Add 10-20 to that....now that's a different story. 52 currently here in the hot spot of the LSV. NBD. Next week at this time will feel FRESH, but beyond that be warned....you may be warmed. Happy Turk Eve to all.

and here is the last 2 runs of the GFS for qpf distribution. yes folks, this is 6 hrs later and why I often cringe at long run Op guidance, but you be your own judge. I just like postin pics. 6z

Looking at Ens guidance, EPS/GEPS showing signs that our dry spell may be a thing of the past. Heres the EPS for viewing pleasure. GEPS is a little more generous as it throws back decent precip into CTP. GEFS is notably more dry and mirrors GFS qpf, but 2 outta 3 aint bad.

Not sure bout snow, but next week sure is lookin chilly. I'll be in the northwoods, so I'll hopefully have some LES showers Sun/Mon and possibly midweek. I'll freeze a snowball for ya (if we get enough to make one).

at 2:25 this afterrnoon on way to Middletown to see client, car thermo said 38 and was 5 deg cooler than mesos. for same timeframe. Looks like warmth is catching up and now at 47. Nice steady rain here. Glad to see it.

was going to post something after I came back from lunch. Mesos had us in mid 40's, but I'm not feeling it....pun intended. Its an awesome raw ass late autumnal day. Might get close, but i'm taking the under. Regarding the low/mid 50's for the LSV tomorrow, winds will be WNW, so I'm taking the under there too. Just my hunches.

On way into work I only saw a few raindrops, so from what I can tell, your board at home is still empty.

Just dont mention any names.....so we can randomly guess who you're talking bout...

I recently got Youtube after ditchin cable. My brother shared him and a couple other weather links on it. First of all, I was blown away that my bro knew something about weather and technology that I didnt (he just likes snow - probably more than I). I've watched a couple casually, but have to say that much of what I've seen is no better than us weenies throwing stuff at the wall. Lotsa click bait titles that really dont match the true weather maps. Still fun to watch i guess...and NO I wouldnt pay for their services. I'm happy w/ what I've got right on this page.

always nice to see you back, as that means fun time is near.

QPF dent doctor paying a visit to our neighborhoods.

Yeah, no matter the departures from normal....it feels normal right now, and I agree 100%. for me its all about how it feels, and IMO it has been a rather pleasant autumn - and it appears that we may be putting some dents into qpf defecits moving forward.

Yeah get those birds thawing. Had mine in fridge for 3 days and was largely frozen Sat night. Next year putting it in garage (like my mom did growing up). Hosted my family yesterday, so my turk's smoked eaten, and left to some leftovers that most took. Happy Thanksgiving week to you and to all. Hoping mo nature can give us a little/lot of something post turk day, before December warms (if one assumes normal climo for base state).

Its a nice look for late Autumn. Happy to see it, now can it give us some love? Coldish looks to be pretty much a lock for that period. Good stuff.

Thats all we got. Barely enough to wet the bottom of the bucket. If overnighter ensembles have a clue....that may change soon.

add TimB to the mix. I liked what Trainer stated above, its all good to debate. I love it, but offer some reasoning up (as best you can) instead of just sayin "aint happenin" or letting constant bias show in posts. Really detracts from ones credibility (and partly why Ji used to get under my/others skin). He's better than that. I now expect to be trolled with "aint happenings" with reckless abandon.