pasnownut

as I said a couple times now, the normally bashed GFS Op at meduim/longer leads has had a decent run in the medium range this season, and while I know it shows what we want to see, there is valid reason the hug the hell outta it....for now.

Enough ticks south to say nooners went the right way for us, as we've got several of em showing hits of various proportions.

I'll take it for now.

For storm #1 i agree, but #2 and PDIII look fine in the cold department.

Really rooting for the GFS to be on point. Further SSE with transfer and keeps this under us. I'll take that at 5 days out.

yeah B transfer just south of KPIT with marginal thermals doesnt work well round here. Need further south track to give CTP a shot at this.

actually heard of someone doin that and burned bunghole so bad that it ended up killin him.... well I read it on the internet....

hey now....some us "not quite as old" still have lo navigate this shitstorm in hopes of retirement - or a world worth livin in when the time comes.

I watched some sierra snow stuff last year, thanks for the reminder to do so once again (and trainer for the tip on what to search for on youtube.

Who are you kidding. You'll pawn off your snowblower for more poker chips if needed....and so would I. Thats a thing of beauty (map wise).

as I know you know, with the way things have become wrt models Ops/Ens snow maps, biases etc, its really tough to pin down at this range, so just to see things somewhere inside the goalposts is all I look for at this juncture. Unfortunately goal posts are pretty wide right now, but with some north and some south, were in the middle which is good. Truth told, I'd rather have more members in the south camp, cause we all know things head north as we close in. Lastly, that PDIII event on the maps is just a beautiful looking setup. If only we could lock that one in.

fyp

Yeah, its on an island right now, but man that 6z snow map was one like we've not seen in a while.... Gotta love digital snow. IF the GFS has a clue, its gonna be a nice little run in the next couple weeks. Pattern evolution says why not, so here's to hopin.

Yeah, it looks like we are about the head into some fun times pattern and trackin wise. of course we can find ways to fail....but could be a fun period.

I find it amusing that he suggests possible SSW event/lag time and what it may mean to LR guidance, but still stands firm on early spring (which would be after said voodo event)? IF we were to get said SSW event, that might throw a small or large wrench into his call for early spring. Mind you, like Mitch, I have always been intrigued by SSW events and hope this one works, as no matter when spring comes, we'd have a notable stretch of winter beforehand and if said event unfolds, the lag time and duration are really hard to pin down.

one good takeaway from nooners, is that all say were gettin some....

Kanook house model is a clean A that comes up and no transfer, but inland enough to keep us southers wet n not white. Northers approve. Just need the cold, and I'd take that look in a heartbeat, but again thats me wishing.

yeah, looks like it hits a cold brick wall and transfers far south enough to go boom over us. but thats extrapolating and wishcasting combined....

tough one.....but I'm gonna give JB the nod for a "variety of reasons".

boy would that map he posted make many happy.

As I've been casually watching the evolution, that's been in the back of my mind (and some others as well). Trough axis is an important feature along with the cold. Of late, and IMO its been a tad east on the medium range looks, and lacking latitude in the east. I dare say a tad of WAR could help, but thats a dangerous wish to ask for. Soon enough wavelenghts will start to change as spring emerges, and if we could hold this look for a while, who knows....but thats getting pretty far ahead of what lies in front of us. Really just shows how difficult it can be to get a really GOOD look pattern wise. So so many ways to just miss. Not that we didnt know that, but it's its so true.

As we enter the better period, gonna watch the trough axis and hope that we get just enough bend for them to come up and not slide right. Stoudt NAO could be too much of a good thing. Just something I'm keepin an eye on.

FWIW, I'm finally starting to believe we are about to get into some fun, or at least trackin it. You've been all over it, and I hope we get the goods. Seeing overnight and morning GFS keeps hope alive and I give the GFS credit for medium range as its sniffed out a few that have verified at some degree or another, so I'm dipping my toes back into the weather water as it looks like after this week, we may be having some chances. Just hoping we don't go straight to suppression depression, as while we have a longwave trought getting established, the southern slider idea has some merit in the things to worry about dept. ENS guidance as you suggest, appears to keep cold closer to us and looks to be rather stable. I'll take that as a win, as we've not seen a pattern "lock in", and for now the latter 1/2 of ens guidance shows this.

Yeah there's snow in the north country, but not much. For those that enjoy it, no matter how much, a couple hour drive would get you some. I was going to take sleds up for a rip around on top, but I'm old enough to not feel pressed to go in less than ideal conditions. Hopefully in 2 weeks there will be better conditions. Thankful I have the harley and sxs for my motor fix(s).