pasnownut

Ok. Gotcha.. Verbatim, if Ens suite has more of a clue at d7, SLP rides boundary and NW 2/3 of Pa takes that run most any day. You n I sweat it out and pray for thermal boundaries to hold.

Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner

For those worried about next Friday, pay attention to the 1/3 event first. As your seeing enough changes at 66 hours, dont fret yet abt 156hrs. Pattern looks to finally be taking a different look, and likely will throw out a few sliders/curve balls along the way. Just keep the bat off the shoulder (sports analogy for all you friggn sportsaholics)

RGEM, GFS stepped back in our favor. Slightly slower and wester with better spacing (as we suggested was needed yesterday). It's almost like they listened to us....

lols. You're a good one then. Get well soon.

If you look really quickly....you can almost pretend its a winter scene. Yuk. Flintlocks will stay in gun cabinet today.

6z GFS says I got some bah humbug left in my bag for you. Voyager...you've been quiet. Have you been secretly expanding your snow dome, cause this 1-2 punch we've been getting w/ primary LP going west, and secondary scooting off MA coast has become quite a persistent feature. Trying to wrap head around why (since last year) as Trainer suggests. Starting to wonder if the orientation of the Apps, and how boundaries run up against them has anything to do w/ it? It's almost like some convoluted wonky Miller B scenario.... Guess we still need to wait for more of a change in base state. No camp is NAM/GFS. I'll save the pic, but you can go look for yourself. Wide right. Maybe camp is RGEM. Not sure how much hope that inspires, but its all we got for now. Its precip field juiced up a bit, but we need a good tug to get back in game. Still time.

GFS looks to tick SE for trailer. Not the move we wanted, but still not DOA IMO. I find this interesting. Opens up at 500, but looks like NS and SS are interacting a bit. look at NS height fields into CTP. hmm....I'll keep watching..

that made a nice bump N/NW w/ precip field. Its not an outlier as it has similarities to NAM/18z GFS. Hoping GFS keeps hope alive.

With all due respect....it's been a difficult 2 years for everyone here...and for a multitude of reasons...the pandemic is just the icing on a big shit cake that has many crappy layers. Not trying to be a dick, and of course everyone here cares about each others challenges, yours included. From another perspective, some/many come here to escape the negativity/shit show outside of weather that runs rampant right now, and use the search of snow (or warm) to "get away from it all". Think about it... Anywhoo....back to the shit pattern that may throw us a bone in the next few days....and might look better as we turn the calendar....for how long....you're only a 384hr map away from finding out.

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see. Nah....it was about this post above. Its getting old guys....

Just said the same earlier. Slower gives it a chance. Having a couple models working to better solutions is a refreshing change. Still work to do but, ya know.... beggars....

Yeah I know.... If you dont like something or see something to share against what others post...post it....otherwise.....thanks in advance. The gigs getting old...especially in these hard times.

Please share what you didnt like.

Not sure what you're looking at??? It ticked just tevery way we could have asked it to. It moved closer to an event here.

Nailed it pal. Good to see you in here w/ us.

One can hope for trailing system to slow down a bit. Every bit would help give your baby bumps a chance...

Yeah without ridging, its not a deep winter look but would be a much better deal than of late. In my mind its just bring the current look further south w/ less cutting for a period. As per above, rooting for the home team model for sure w/ broad based trough kinda look.

I'd settle for the flatish look we've had, and just being on the colder side of the boundary, as we've been hoping for. With all of the vorts we've been seeing, that'd set up a nice conveyor belt of snowballs from the midwest. This looks to be progressing twds the promise land. Just gotta hope NAO/AO dont mute the signal, cause we all know how easy it is to fail.

FWIW, Ens guidance is notably flatter for timestamp above, so glue your fingernail back on.....it wasnt worth the chew, and extrapolated, shouldn't cut, and would likely be something for all as it fits the NAO/AO at same timestamp. Looks to be best window we've had (on the maps and charts anyways).

Even if taboo... if one uses this for what its worth, it shows that opportunities for white gold may be getting closer to our backyards. Mind you....if one looks at the 192 GooFuS Op, it went from no storm at 6z to this at 12z. Just an example of why even in medium range its only a tool....and shouldnt be worth chewin one fingernail over.....Beyond 3 days, search for trends...good or bad.

Verbatim yes...but still plenty of time for a small shift either way....and one of them gets the LSV's attention.

as a realist....sure is. Just dont remind me so often.....K??

But you don't reference the historical snows in CA....see what I mean..? One can always find an anomaly to fit ones feelings. Some years the sierras are drier than a popcorn fart....some years they set snow records.... Weather is like a chess board....predictable and ever changing from game to game....year to year. Alright...I have to get back to work. Have your fun...TTFN.

He, Chill and I used to chat it up and PM....when he left....I was close on the heels. Mitch was level head, knew his shit (as a hobbyist mind you) - but like others... got tired of it. Thats the part that I dont want to see happen here, and as our pool of knowledgeable posters is a bit less. Again, not a dig....just a fact.