pasnownut

No doubt we are headed for zonal pattern as depicted above. Concern has to be w/ persistent ridge in central basin and why it wont go away...even w/ neg AO/NAO period upcoming. Its like the displaced but not denied GOA LP is relentless. LR guidance suggests they both get bumped, but I'm not sure that they get displaced. Trying to wrap my head around this conundrum we're in. Me thinks MJO dive in 7 is what surface pattern is reflecting...and correcting to as well as AO/NAO not staying neg. Me hopes me is wrong. Gotta grab another bevvy....Covid almost gone, n daughter now tests positive tonight. Son likely will tomorrow. Wife.....tough cookie. It's all good. We'll take our Omni (73.2 of all cases now Omni Bubbles) and deal w/ it. Unfortunately daughter came home from Denver to see fam/friends....bummer.

trying to take that as a complement.... Right??

I also had steady drizzle for a period last evening. This was a storm that I had said to watch last week. It came notably north, but just missed. I was thinking northern periphery might get white from it. Oh well....another miss all the same.

lol...that was a good one. well played.

other than being a Dallas fan....agreed. .

wow...that first sentence. People officially suck.

lets just say the kettle is "crushin it" is what it is, and yeah, its hard to polish a turd.

It’s a rather unique situation but yes he has a kid up there. His work home base is Lanco but they work all over northeast corridor. Assuming he makes rather decent coin

Yeah i know how they are and have been struggling up there and I agree w/ your statement.. Sad for sure. Hoping the next couple weeks helps to get them some business. Needs to start soon as I know the holiday week is a big part of their winter business. Still have a bud in Cicero and he drives all the way down to PA to work and goes home on some weekends. Sad.

I'd throw Old Forge into the fray as they have lakes and plenty of summer activities to draw folks/industries. You also have lake influence albeit further east. Outside of that, yea northern NY is desolate and somewhat struggling. I have a couple snowmobile buddies that had cabins or looked to purchase, but taxes were the end of it of them keeping or looking to purchase. Man is it a beautiful area though.

agreed....and its 300+ hrs out. As regime change continues to evolve, they should start showing their hand in next couple days...and not just be 1 run. Watch for that in coming runs. BTW, Covid was an average cold. Day 5 and I can feel it breaking up like the glaciers in the Arctic Circle in spring. If you get Omni, fret not my friends, but I wish you all health and happiness always.

also starting to see the Ens guidance on nooner GEFS/GEPS ticking south for the big day and beyond. Thats what we've been waiting for. Not a big step, but definatley seasonal....now for the snow.....dunno, but a positive step for nooner run. Also seeing ridging being suppresed in central basin. that would cooincide w/ NAO/AO heading down IMO.

dude, rode through your neck of the woods on the Harley scooter a couple times and yes, you absolutely make the list. In truth I'd have a better chance of your area than the others. Daughter lives in Denver(should be home for holidays any minute btw) so i guess I'd have a whack at Co if she stays there. You live in a great area, and one I hope to frequent more. Will stop to steal a beer next time through.

words well stated. I'm old enough to enjoy all 4, but missing winter makes it tough for sure. In a good snow season, Im actually sorta ready for spring and some warmth but I'm sure if I lived in ME or Co, or a real snow town, I'd take all the snow I could get.

Wow we do think alike. I’m just in agreement with blizzard that we can (and have) had late starts and done alright. If this were 4 weeks from now I’d be thinking differently as like you, snow in March to me is a kick in the crotch and a waste of what could have been were it a few weeks earlier.

You just said what I’ve been trying to say for some time now “ weather isnt a light switch or an app” blah blah blah.

Not a good look. Wondering In my mind that could be a reflection of MJO diving in 7 twds COD. Gotta hope the AO NAO couplet can save us (and I think they can).

We need that Alaska vortex to relocate SE off west coast as it is the traffic cop for pac influence and would promote ridging out west pushing trough further east.

last 3 runs at 6hr differences are shown below. You found a map that matches what MU says, but forgot to look at the one 6hrs earlier (or the one before that....) Pictured below is why its hard for me to wrap my head around LR Op guidance, but you do you bud. As you've questioned and poo poohed my voodo dolls used, I'm only doing the same. I guess we both keep banging our drums and one of us may be correct....even if for the wrong reasons. Just little to no continuity in LR Op guidance. Savings grace for warmies is that its notably much easier to find warmth these days, so you may end up correct even if not for LR Op guidance. also if one uses the roll forward method towards the end of ens guidance that pig ridge seems to be headed SE which is signaled by PNA headed + down the road. Dont be mad....i'm just chatting up weather on a weather board in my quest to find answers....and snow. . Your one of the few that throws their thoughts and feelings out as to the why and why nots....and I respect that. 6hrs later....lol

Step down continues....Pushes more chips in. Cold is coming and hopefully some white. MJO headed thru 7 and though strong push to 8 is now somewhat muted. Thats a worry, but I'll take the above and roll w/ whatever we get, cause there are enough signs that appreciable change is coming. Remember folks, the weather isnt a light switch or an app to order from. We never had a great look through christmas, and still dont...Its only been advertised as a better one, but that doesnt mean instant correlation to snow. Hoping MJO comes around as that would be the final piece to appreciable changes for us and yes, I've seen the maps.....AO and NAO couplet will likely diminish the effects of SC ridge that has been screwin us. Yes, that blob south of AK needs to come east and cant be ignored, but no matter the result, the base state is changing.

Thanks bud. So far ok. Wishin you and the rest of the gang safe travels through the next round. Let’s hope Omni proves to be just a bad cold or flu. Fortunately we are far better prepared heading into winter than we were a year ago. Hope that calms many but fear it wont.

Sorry its been rough for you. Hang in there. Not in the chest for me (yet). Hoping you get through it soon. Take care.

I do remember. Glad you are better. I got the iHealth test. From what little I've looked into it, it seems rather accurate. My symptoms are more like omni, not delta. Anywhoo...thanks bud. It's early, but I'm hoping my 1 dose of Phzr does it's thingy and it stays mild.

I'll wager that Eagles dont play next Tuesday either. This next round is blowing up and even if less severe....unfortunately history will repeat itself....even with so many vaccinated. Not sure I get that.....but I did get it. Tested pos. yesterday afternoon. I'm sure some here would like me to stay away from the board for their own safety tho.

thats an easy one....till it snows silly. Even though we are looking like better days ahead, I'd not "waste" too much time parsing over every model run. Maybe by Sunday/Monday you can start fretting if models dont spit out alot of snow. It's just not a slam dunk period next week but one that has potential to give some fun.