pasnownut

Sure was. I miss bats....bigly...

woudnt have it any other way.... Truth told, i'm headed to cabin on Monday night and have friends and my son/his friends coming up for some time afield and just being together. Seems to rain whenever we are up there for a weekend. Worse things for sure, but I'm old enough to not enjoy sitting in a treestand while raining and 40 deg. is no longer the "fun" it used to be. I'll do it, but rather begrudgingly.

Hoping it doesnt get crazy warm..plenty of time for changes....32 op runs to view....good or bad. No matter, I just want a dry weekend. Thats all I'm asking for.

agreed. I saw 28 3 days in a row. Thought my digital car thermometer was stuck.....lol. I'm happy to see growning season done, but more happy to see skeeters, ticks other pesty bugs dead.

wow. Didnt realize it was that late.

Maybe i need glasses.... yesterdays view for thursday todays view for same timestamp someone tell me what I'm not seeing?

You'll see it in the laurels, and I'll see it in NC Pa as I'll be in the mountains much of next week. Cabin is in good spot for upslope events off the lakes. If look holds should feel like early winter....NW flow should keep that cloudy/cold look anyway (in Mtns).

Not disagreeing w/ your assessment, but I'm just suggesting that any Op run at 7+ days needs viewed w/ a notable dose of skepticism. Thats all. Op runs still capable of notable swings at 5+ lead time. For me 5+ is almost always more Ens over Op runs and to that end, 7-10 is really my Ens window.

YEP I liked that show. I too have some of his "quirky" tendencies.....with 1/2 the smarts.........

Look at the ensemble loops pal....IF GFS suite has a clue...it says big blue trough building in the east. Its a tough call as to which models to go w/ for sure, but I'd lean to ens, at D8ish stuff. JMO's.

See....told ya I'm in good company. Nothing like raking(mowing) leaves on a fall day w/ a beer that stays cold (actually they never get warm in my hands ) or bringing wood down. Going in for homemade soup and watching a game late afternoon....Its the good stuff IMO.

GFS Op vs ensemble GEPS is the warmer of the 2 ens, so I put it here to show that I'm not trying to wishcast. GEFS is 49 over our area.

then i consider myself in good company.... I've got thick skin, can take a joke, and have been called far worse. NBD

We were cut from the same cloth...its how I've always thought about late fall/early winter. Its the best

I dont know why some of us wierdos love a dull and cool/cold late november day....but man I sure do. For me I think it's the lead up to the holiday season....and the best time for snow to stick. I know it defy's normal thinking of bright and sunny days, but it's probably my most enjoyable time of year.

Enough to plow in Montague NY. I've stayed there quite a few times, and if ever there is a place that it wants to snow....this is the spot. http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=59&cam=1

I also saw pics of snow on soc. media in northern Lycoming/Potter border area (Black Forest Inn).

28-29 on way into office. Also not a big fan of DS, but when it comes, it's just another step towards show time....so that makes me ok w/ it.

Harsh...?? Huh? I've seen far worse things posted that are laughed at...especially when lol is applied, ya know...in humor.

are you part Neanderthal? lol I like the cold, but my new woodstove has been fired up 3 evenings already.

I dont think many are questioning the forecast part...as much as all of the ways out in the risk part. In fairness if those risks were applied in many locals, one could have a "way out" of not verifying. IMO that risk part is akin to them being wrong half of the time and still having a job, if ya know what I'm getting at. I wish I could go at my sales projections like that....but I can't.

wow. ya think trainer will turn on the heat??

truth told, that risk part didnt sound like horst. He ususally throw it out there and sees what sticks. Glad to hear it wasnt him. He's better than that.

I was just thinking the same. The risk part takes away much of what they put into the forecast part. That kind of forecast/risk assessment thrown on this site is usually one that takes a beating. Remove the risk part, and if verified would be impressive (or not if you are a snow weenie). I'm going to look at what last year wasnt to be vs how it turned out (better) and just hope for another surprise year. No matter, I'll view 10+ day maps with little weight until something tells me otherwise. edit-and for any that think I'm showing bias, show me a forecast that says get shovels ready....and put a pile of risk factors into it...and I'll view it just the same as Horsts.

was looking at 511 cams to see if your western pals might have gotten some flakes, but couldnt find any.