pasnownut

I had a Compaq

Really like the ridging in AK that is showing up on ENS guidance. Gives NS a chance to lock in and not be as transient as we've seen when big storms come up and cut. Hoping pattern gets storms back to coming at/under us, and not cutting so far west. Looks like that starts to happne abt a week from today. IF this look holds, I'd think trackers will start to show up again. till then...we thaw.

fwiw, looks like an extra day of thaw is being added on the backend of this weeks Jan thaw. Fropa now sunday.

his split flow is evident aoa 1/17 and beyond. Just like the wierd cold pattern we've been in, its about timing of two streams/vorts. At least the SS will be open for some business and cold will be a bit more stable and close by when needed.

Negative ghost rider. Specially up in your neck of the woods. i'd think SE of the mtns might get a few peeks, but w/ that SLP traversing to your north, I'd think you are socked in.

Be careful up there. After this past weekend, we agreed it was some of the worst getting around in the hills that we've seen in some time. I agree, the warmup is going to be welcome for the northers, in hopes that the ice layer takes a beating. Like yours, my driveway was a mess up there. I didnt do a great job of plowing/cleaining driveway, because my UTV couldnt get through it. I feel bad for the animals that cant get through it for overwinter browse. One farm we know lost a cow Friday as it fell and broke stuff. Hard on them too.

if ens guidance has a clue we have a window of opp coming, but not sure how long it holds. Twds the end, Pac looks better but with NAO headed pos, not sure how deep cold will be. AO highly questionable, but verbatim would be slightly neg. to my eyes, MJO low amp is muted signal, so I guess it really is up in the air, but lets focus on next week and see how this cookie crumbles. Not great...not horrible.

its just about the moodiness.....

Nooner GFS gave me some tingles.. SS now showing up in a nice way and just need NS to play along timing wise. I'll be watching. and fwiw, I pulled my groin pretty bad while slipping on ice under the snow at cabin....but I'm not gonna complain, nor will i ask for any of you to give my inner thigh a massage. I'll get over it. Our group of 6 slipped and fell at least a dozen times in total while trekking the north woods for a couple days. I had 2 falls that if were recorded....I'd be a social media sensation with a gazillion likes.

Our forum clearly know the whos who on the board, from warmies, storm chasers, to snow hounds. The last part is really all of it in a nutshell, yet every year, we hav to have this dialog. While newbies have to figure out "how we roll", the ones that have been here forever should just do exactly what you state, and respect those of us who are now in "our time". Snow is much harder to get than warmth, and EVERYONE here knows it, and for us snow lovers, trackin snow and winter landscapes mean a lot to us. Most of us don't wish it cold in July. We just know better and let the warmies have their time....

Or maybe you just need to go look. Op and Ens guidance if believable, are looking fine IMO Man6y peeps are just getting back to work to start the year. I'm not postin maps, but verbatim and if verified, the GFS would have several chances of snow and ens pattern would support it. Tellies arent too bad, but not sure the big trough in the east is going to lock in.

I'm just happy that we've avoided torchmas. Was a nice holiday period w/ a feel of winter, and many locals have some or decent snow to boot (norther westers). Looks like we get a thaw this week before temps come back down and we get more chances at white gold

sugar coating on a great holiday season weatherwise and it was great to have the early wintery feel for December. Not much snow OTG here in lanco, but many norther westers have enjoyed it since Turkey day (not quite entire time, but most of it anyway)Jan thaw next week but Winter looms beyond. Here's to health and happiness in 2026.

3 days in a row. yeah...my wires dont alwasy touch. My cheeks look like santas after his annual trek round the world. Takin today off. Lotsa miles on my boots and I'm not compainin. Glad that I can do it. Today was total gym and ab roller (done), so now headed into work for a couple hours (even though I'm technically "off"). To all my pals here, happy NYE, and all the best in the New Year.

and thats fine, but when you admit you have a bias, its hard to not view w/ a tad of skepticism (for those of us who have a modicum of weather knowledge, but to the peeps that just read, and go off thinking whatever is posted is happening, that can be trouble. I'd just say its up in the air.....

quite frankly dont give a rats ass what he wishes for and yeah, he's wordsmithing his warm bias into it as shared above. Just call it like you see it, and keep opinions to self. IF he wasnt a pro, and just a weenie like most of us, and wants to come in here w/ his warm bias, thats fine, but public sector weighs heavily on his "opines". We live in an information era, and peeps rely far too much on other peeps "opines", and can get caught off guard. Out in woods most of the day. Face looks just a tad windburnt. Stopped to see my mom and she all but freaked and said, honey your blood pressure must be terrible. lol

yeah what he said. 1 to 2 feet. sounds like multiple bouts of LES and the snow hose will vascillate for the whole week. Man that'd be awesome.

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 NYZ006>008-290700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

I just checked. all local zips in region are at 28

28 is what i've seen on several sites for harrisburg. good try tho

its mine as well. Steady pingers have commenced. Winter time version of pingers on a tin roof is much better than summer time rain on same roof.

Ok Joes 4 n 1 brethren....Love that friggin grill, stick smokin awesome built meat cooker. I've had mine 10 yrs old and goin strong. stick smokin took me a bit to get used to, but i'm getting there. My Green Mtn pellet does a nice job, and is easier to cook on, but man, you just can NOT beat the flaver a stick burner puts out. Enjoy. Oh.... and ice glaze w/ zr/ip mix earlier. In a lull now but happy hour looks less happy for any on the roads. Be safe and happy holidays all.

could also be byproduct of being SE of them there mtns and not having the forcing mechanism as it is only a 1005-8 mb slp, so qpf might not be crazy without good forcing down here in the perverbial jip zone. I'm still rooting on the weaker option so that whatever falls has less WAA to worry about.

While it is a tad concerning, based on SLP being a tick S of 6z when the goods are in the hood, i'd not worry too much. qpf distribution is driven more by SLP placement and going to weeble wooble a bit. IF the future runs do the norther shift, then you n I need to worry more.

thats my hopes as well and if tomorrow night cools enough, we could get our wish. NWS currently has me down to 22, but if clouds come in soon enough, they could cap how cold we get. Thinkin we'll be ok, and happy to see one sneak up on us. I was surely a skeptic.