pasnownut

as you /we know, many times we score during times of relaxation of trough/nao blah blah. Enough showing that I'd thin suppression depression will work its way back towards MA/NMA instead of the carolinas.

unfortunately that happens when big cold snaps hit. but fortunately we got hit with a great event prior to, and have lost almost no snowpack. Took the sled out for an after work rip in the fields, and this shit is legit solid. Further compaction when we moderate next week could set the stage if we get more snow to follow, for a memorable stretch of snow days w/ 1" or more otg.

Have fun pal.

Yeah it hasnt been quite as forecasted, but 1 on digi this morning was cold enough.

Lol had my first rabbit doing the same at 630 this morning bird seed is easy pickins for him, which also makes it easy pickins for the hawk that lives in neighbors pines. Picked up 1/2 squirrel last weekend. Hawk is well feed.

I'm turnin my frown updside down. Despite the dud for this upcoming weekend, last few weeks have been and have felt like true winter. Been a long time, and I'm enjoying every day we have snowpack. Looks like pattern relaxes enough moving forward, that chances for clippers and maybe a well timed NS/SS event could happen. Stays cold enough for snow to hold. Lets enjoy what we have and not worry too much about what the next one looks like. It'll come. Till then....enjoy. FWIW my car broke down this morning. Might be major, wont know till next week. Cant fret about it. Gonna b what its gonna b.

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed. Uugghhh.

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE? IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead. cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS. Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

my rule for a long time, ens guidance with op till short term mesos come into range then slowly pass the weather baton off.

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out. CMC kept hope alive. Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.

and just like that.....CMC tries to pull off my wish. Notably more neg tilt, but still a whiff. Now IF that could be the start of the normal north trend, I'd not write this one off. Lots stacked against right now.

trough axis too far east. Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture. IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.

not diggin nooners. No fork out yet, but cold press seems to overwhelm the east, and keeps this deal too far east. VA/NC beaches approve.

Here we go boys n girls. Lets hope today is better than last night. RGEM coming in a little more tucked from 6z. Not gonna extrapolate, but not gonna say i hate the look. challenge is right where it is, is where it meets "the wall". Hoping today offers a bit more clarity to the exit stage right dilemna. Might not be till tomorrow though.

Yeah, while we missed the big accums, the density from the sleet and little bit of zr has made our lesser snowpack rather dense. Aint goin nowhere for a good while.

Yeah I only saw 5. Was expectin neg digis.

Icon still doin its own thingy at 84. 500's similar, but surface notsomuch

and looking at 18z gfs 500s at same timeframe, extremely close in presentation. me likey...

500s at 84 were notably better and digging for gold....white gold (but thats me extrapolating). BIG difference from 18z Gonna try to stay up for GFS to see if its the lead dog or not. I may be rather tired by this weekend, but man this is fun.

not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy.

Like him or not he's 100% correct.

totally agree. poor or late phase, its pure fish food. Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us)

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look.

Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS??