pasnownut

Looked at ens guidance and next week looks like our thaw, but many show 30s n 40's for much of period. I'm sure a day or 2 might tickle the 50. Just a boring stretch incoming. Twds the end, it looks like we get some colder air back but not a big signal. Just boring. long term -pna/+nao/+ao says coldest favored west. Its not a close the shades look, but not a good one either.

overnighters have us on the northern edge of precip, and several have short period of snow here. Still think it comes further north.

south trend seems to have gained traction today. no NS/SS interaction and it just scoots due east ish. Stll think a norther correction happens but not sure if and how much. Gonna say i'm a bit baffled as to what I'm seeing.

couple flurries on way home from office. digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron. Never budged.

In full transparency, I shouldve added that ICON went notably south. that has me scratchin my head. Cold dome is relaxing...unless it isn't. Huh

I dont go to other forums often at all, but hoping he gets the memo soon.

antecedent cold is not stoudt, so we may need column to cool dynamically (ala Euro), but thats more of an outlier IMO. I think thermally we'll be i trouble down here, but as currently depicted would get some front end prior to losing thermals. I personally can see this going norther and what I just suggested could be an issue into central Pa (assuming north trend continues). I'm glad to see the storm no matter. We need it. Beyond that, next week looks redundant of this week. No big torch, and some cool days sprinkled in (sorta normalish see saw stuff.)

Hang in there pal. Just a newbie that needs to figure out how things roll in here.

CMC still holing steady wrt weekend potential

nooner GFS continues to tick N (slp and qpf field). Not a snowy look, but definitely would not write off the storm at all.

I was going to type something along the lines of what TT just did to offer up some suggestions to reduce the amount of trolling you receive. He's not wrong. Saying things like you do without offering a snippet of info as to why YOU think it may "not happen" is a good way to muck up the board and get trolled. Post what you feel...and why you feel it. It's ok to be wrong in here....but sometimes your right and maybe we learn from each other. That's what this board is supposed to be right? A disco thread. Carry on.

just went over to ready CTP's disco, and I'm gonna say, that it was rather reasonable. they threw in some snippets about using old forecaster rule of thumb about betting against something that has yet to hit the west coast and ens guidance suggesting otherwise/norther solutions not being dismissed yet. Thats reasonable and what many of us old weenies use as baselines for most events (when in med/long term) model watching.

lol. just stated the same. Here's to smart minds.

Know that my post wasnt at you at all, just reading what you shared from him. While he no doubt is talented, anyone that's been in this game long enough knows that speaking in absolutes (or undertones thereof) is gonna take it on the chin once in a while. I think that's the rub w/ ctp, they historically dismiss until the bitter end, while using the 70/30 rule of betting on warm/ain't happening rule of modelology.

Yessir. every year for as long as we can remember. Even as a weenie, when you do things long enough you get a feel for how things can (and often do) happen/evolve given certain parameters. Point is...to write something off at 6 days, well that's just silly, especially when there are no overwhelming signals one way or the other. Much atmospheric flux right now.

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.

agreed. its friggn 2/11/26 and peeps sorta seem checked out. If its because they've had and enjoyed this winter so far....that's just great, but climo says 5 more weeks minimum (oh and that furry brown varmint). Spring is comin soon, but enough signals suggest early is not likely.

and wiping egg off their face. They largely bailed yesterday morning, and dipped toe back in da water overnight, but covered all bases.

CMC has been sniffin this one out from early on. How many times have we seen the models lose the storm in the mid range, only to bring it back/north as we get closer to the event. I was LOL'n yesterday with some of the its done/over stuff. This weekends potential event is a perfect example of many storms of the past. Going to be interesting to see CTP updates after overnighters-assuming the norther trends continue.

was thinking the same. Like yours, mine is rather solid and we'll see how it holds, but its gonna take a good bit of work.

Hi all. Hope you had a good weekend. Next weekend looks tricky, but I remind some that only a few days ago this week looked warm, and we're now down to a 1ish day "warmup". Nooner CMC is what dreams are made of. Verbatim its a best case scenario, and not sure I believe, but really nice to look at. Antecedent cold is there but as NAO is on the rise, so will be the thermal boundary, so the souther secondary is the way to the white promise land, as critical layers recover and we lose less cold. At least we are pulling off another solid week of winter.

Overnighters look to have flattened the flow, which makes more sense to me. While nao and ao are on the rise,both still in - territory next week. Add to it - pna, a flatter look seems reasonable. Beyond that...dunno, but next week still doesnt look bigly warm to me. Every week we add to this awesome stretch is fine by me. Spring will be springin soon enough and it'll make the warmth feel gooder. Headed north in a few hours. Have a great weekend all. Bundle up and enjoy the snow.

Fixed

upon review of nooners, its wide open for what will happen next week. I think the relaxation will give us our first cutter and then force boundary further south for VD event. Not sure it works out for the weekend event, but several camps being formed. Ens guidance does lean warmish d7+ so there's that

par for the clipper course down here in LSV. We've seen things look good from afar (timewise) only to have things diminish as we get into short range. Not surprised at all. And one should keep this in mind as we move into a more volatile period w/ NS/SS battling is out and we loose the heavy hand of cold. Might be a bumpy ride.