pasnownut

just glanced as mesos and hi teens at midnight into low/mid 20s early am. I'd think that'd be enough to let whatever falls get to the surface. couple looks at skew t's for lanco not bad imo.

I didnt check dp's but thats a good point to consider. quick look and low/mid 20's dp wise from midnight on (when qpf starts to pop), so not too much should be wasted.

shows up on mesos as such. midnight to 3 then 6 to 9-10 am ISH

midntight thru mid morning,

Just looked over overnight and morning runs, and there's not a major global that doesn't have at least a couple chances a white gold, and some are similar in evolution, so it surely gives credence to the notion that snowgeese gonna b honkin. Yes, of course there are always a myriad of ways to fail, but as we've been suggesting, pattern looks ripe for the pickins in next couple weeks. 6zGFS just went whole hog on us again. Good thing is there are a few chances inside the midterm, so its not really fantasy stuff.

Gotcha. sounds like a little road trip will lift your spirits. Thats how I get by when winters suckin down here...head north or northwest.

Was just going to put a post up suggesting the same. Looks like some mood flakes possible this weekend, but like you said, hopefully once this new pattern sets in we can score a couple hits. Looks like there will be chances for sure.

I'll have to remember that. Can you get real id there?

Headed your way tomorrow night (Houtzdale). Save some for me.

Happy day pal.

so there's a 6-9% chance of it happening.... I crack myself up.

Well, its gonna be tough sleddin in here for you, because things are nowhere close to what you'd like in modeling. You either need to accept it, or get over it, because its really old and stale reading your same rants over and over.

It's because that's all you do is....complain and blame mets for blown forecasts. Weather isnt just data generated and the science behind it is what the allure is for many here. You seem to want simple weather outputs that hit 100% of the time. Just not gonna happen, and you know it. Maybe you throw your weather thoughts into the ring, and we'll see how that goes. Otherwise, expect much the same.

While we need the blocking for something big, I don't think any here are lookin for a big dog on this one. He's right, it is still a progressive flow, but this one is all about the trough axis and how much it can dive in to push this up the coast and slow the eastward progression. Many here would take a 2-4" scooter up da coast, and be just fine. Point is that trough axis is the key to the snowy promise land on this weekend. Not enough dig, it slides off the carolinas and we smoke distant cirrus here.

CMC/Icon also ticked west for Sunday funday storm. Enough time/moves left for this to be next on watch list. Still a progressive trough, and not a longwave stable look, so it needs to dig and pop fast, as any delay in doing so would be headed for scooterville (SE Coast/fishy) kinda deal.

Yep, trough axis gave it a chance to come up and not out. a little more dig on HH and beyond, and we might get into a notable event. Even as depicted on nooner, I think LSV and easters would approve

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. I guess it really is "up in the air" right now. hehe

IMO its really the SS starting to fire back up that is throwing the models into fits, as there are so many vorts coming at us, they are trying to figure out what (if any) interaction there may be between the 2 streams and as yall should know by now, it doesnt take much to make sumthin when you sit near the boundary. For that reason, I think, is why its really inside 72-96 till the picture starts to get less fuzzy. Thats why I've not written off this period like many others have. In the end, I may be wrong, but I'm just followin my guy on this one (and by following gut, that doesnt mean something will happen), 6z GFS is gettin notably closer for weekend. Might be sniffin cirrus back here while easters see some flakage.

and as I suggested a few days back, it might be into the mid range until things get sorted out. With that in mind, 0z's are coming around to the idea of a lot coming at us, and look a tad better for this weekend as well. ICON/GFS/CMC are stepping in the right direction. 1/24 nuke job, we'll find out in a few.

Hey man. Good to hear from you. Glad that you are liking where we are headed. Lets just hope baroclinic zone wavers south for some of these. SWFE's are some of my favorite, as frequency is usually every couple days, and ya just need to see what side of the snow fence you are on for each of them.

If this news gets published here.... I might not have anyone to chat w/ me anymore.....hehe edit: i see it has..I'm wonding if Im being purged as we speak.

Might be headed to cabin this weekend. Not sure yet. I'm told the weekend rain froze and made it a real icy mess up on the hill. Mtn roads are almost impassable. Do you agree? Looks like a couple inches coming tomorrow night. If wet, it'd prob help. If fluffy....ugh. We were slippin and sliding 2 weekends ago. Groin still recovering, but I'd like to get up.

For now, virtual reality sounds fine, right?

Atta boy. Shoulda known better. Kioti's are nice. Played on one when cutting wood every year (property owner had a dealership and always had the nice "demo" toys to play with). If you saw that map above, that might warrant blowing the dust off the Kioti. Enjoy.

Hell, a warnin level event would suit me just fine, or a couple advisory types in a short timeframe. I'm a realist, but someone went a little wild w/ the fairy dust for HH. @anothermanthanks for postin it.