pasnownut

And as I type first legit flakes stating to mix in. here we go….for whatever we get. Just enjoy it.

I think the optimism was peaked when we saw early morn start a couple days ago and yesterday we saw enough warmth to warrant caution as the notable snows and qpf shifted twds afternoon. We all knew any shift east could mean a lot with us on western periphery. It’s still going to snow and be a nice storm, but as often the case with marginal antecedent it takes rates. We don’t have them yet but will later. light rain and maybe a couple flakes mixed in. I’ll keep looking out the window waiting for the changeover. Hopefully soon. Enjoy the day gang.

Sending some strength her way.

Hate to say it, but its been on my mind since last evening. We've seen this before, but as this storm has been different (regarding modeling), I was hoping to buck normal tendencies. Just gonna have to roll w/ it. Still Sunday funday and a tie game. 3rd period should be excititng.

Im in it as well. Starting to fill. Gonna start soon USA USA USA!!

We are lucky to have you. You make us proud. Well done friend. Not often do we get to see writeups like that for this area

This is why many of us are here, but yeah, we hang out w/ some good folks as well. Enjoy all. This is the good stuff (even if a little east for my liking).

It’s time, but gotta raise eyebrow at gfs. We knew this west look would stop at some point. Took break from cuttin wood. NAM fr the win. I hope. lol.

wow that is just a beaut. Now how do we get that to verify?? Thats a forum pleaser right there. I still question the hard NW cutoff w/o 1040hp pressin from the north, and am hoping for the NW qpf shield to expand as we get closer. Been a gut feeling based on SLP being a bomb with little resistance from the NW. Thats why trough axis hase been what I'm keying on. more neg she goes, more west qpf expands.

yeah it was a good one, but thought I should PG it a bit. Not sure if that weathergal is real or not, but wowwy.

looks like your call was a good one. inevitable shift W has ceased. It's going to be a hell of an event for coastal locals. Still some fun back here.

all about the trends....even if drunk. It wobbled west, but it still was west. speaking of wobbling....I'm wobblin off to bed. Hoping for some fun in the morning before the chainsaws come out to start my woodcutting season. Gnight kids.

yep. Icon did as well. staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough). If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting. trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west.

I think we all have a good shot at warning criteria. last storm I got 8 while those not too far from me got 15", so I guess turnaround is fair play eh?

after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.

Nice to see the westward ticks continuing. Were going to run out of them sometime soon, but hey, 1 or 2 more would make many happier than we already are.

I'm not sure I totally buy that, as there isnt a huge H parked above us to suppress wester qpf expansion, and yeah its a wound up beast, but I'd think a little better western qpf is possible as we close in. I'd not think huge bump, but maybe a couple inches more than currently modeled. also looks like norlun feature is not as big a deal, and its just more of a classic shellackin.

It really is impressive, and while I know some will troll me for sayin it, I'm glad the GFS may get one, as it just adds an extra layer of WTF for modelwatchin, cause now we have to consider it once again. If it sees this across the line, I will not use GooFuS for the rest of the season, no matter how good or bad it does.

since you can do the pic thingy, pull hr 78 on GFS clown map...please n thx

GFS at 10:1 brings the hammer with a 24" between me and Chesco.

GFS tryin to stay lead dog and makin HH a bit happier. WOOF Nicely tucked and a bit further W. I agree that we are runnin outta room, but little wiggles like this are still going to happen, and this one is totally fine by me. GFS....I'm impressed.

and the Euro as per Accuchris. likin the trends. Lets hope we can continue this for a couple more runs.

euro AI joins the sharper trough team and looks better. Another +1 for team snowhounds

goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members. Still need to watch NS and how it dives in. Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better). Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.

based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE.