pasnownut

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed. Uugghhh.

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE? IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead. cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS. Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

my rule for a long time, ens guidance with op till short term mesos come into range then slowly pass the weather baton off.

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out. CMC kept hope alive. Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.

and just like that.....CMC tries to pull off my wish. Notably more neg tilt, but still a whiff. Now IF that could be the start of the normal north trend, I'd not write this one off. Lots stacked against right now.

trough axis too far east. Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture. IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.

not diggin nooners. No fork out yet, but cold press seems to overwhelm the east, and keeps this deal too far east. VA/NC beaches approve.

Here we go boys n girls. Lets hope today is better than last night. RGEM coming in a little more tucked from 6z. Not gonna extrapolate, but not gonna say i hate the look. challenge is right where it is, is where it meets "the wall". Hoping today offers a bit more clarity to the exit stage right dilemna. Might not be till tomorrow though.

Yeah, while we missed the big accums, the density from the sleet and little bit of zr has made our lesser snowpack rather dense. Aint goin nowhere for a good while.

Yeah I only saw 5. Was expectin neg digis.

Icon still doin its own thingy at 84. 500's similar, but surface notsomuch

and looking at 18z gfs 500s at same timeframe, extremely close in presentation. me likey...

500s at 84 were notably better and digging for gold....white gold (but thats me extrapolating). BIG difference from 18z Gonna try to stay up for GFS to see if its the lead dog or not. I may be rather tired by this weekend, but man this is fun.

not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy.

Like him or not he's 100% correct.

totally agree. poor or late phase, its pure fish food. Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us)

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look.

Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS??

Good catch. nooner was 3 contour closed at 500, and now 5 countour for HH. That just made my HH a whole lot happier. Much better phasing on ens.

Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.

hoping he's still diggin out. Im sure he knows this is all in fun. My trophy was the snow and always will be, and to that end, we were all winners.

While I make no claims to be a data guru, I'll say that GFS was sniffing out last week early as well. Hence my reluctance to shift. They ALL are going to go through various iterations until this gets closer. Last week we had a general consensus and only once inside NAM's range did we see thermal challenges shown by NAM despite strong CAD/antecedent airmass in place. also, post mortem, the primary never ceded to the secondary pop, and us southers know how that worked for us. Call me what you will, but there are no KINGS in weather models anymore. As stated many times, I look for consensus at this juncture, and at this juncture the only consensus, is that there will be a storm.

FYP as it was a little dated. I just updated to current status.

I just checked both EPS/GEFS clustes on pivot, and both suggest more members being west. I think at this range, Ens guidance still holds weight and then once inside 72 ops take over. I remind everyone in this group to think about where we were 5 days ago for last weekend....and where we ended up. Biggest moves were inside 48-60hrs @candersonI dont disagree, trouch axis not ideal, BUT if you get 500 to dive in (many showing little phasing), that could absolutely help pull this west and if vertically stacked, notably diff outcome. GFS was not horrid last weekend, so while an outlier, i'll not discount, yet.