pasnownut

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 NYZ006>008-290700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

I just checked. all local zips in region are at 28

28 is what i've seen on several sites for harrisburg. good try tho

its mine as well. Steady pingers have commenced. Winter time version of pingers on a tin roof is much better than summer time rain on same roof.

Ok Joes 4 n 1 brethren....Love that friggin grill, stick smokin awesome built meat cooker. I've had mine 10 yrs old and goin strong. stick smokin took me a bit to get used to, but i'm getting there. My Green Mtn pellet does a nice job, and is easier to cook on, but man, you just can NOT beat the flaver a stick burner puts out. Enjoy. Oh.... and ice glaze w/ zr/ip mix earlier. In a lull now but happy hour looks less happy for any on the roads. Be safe and happy holidays all.

could also be byproduct of being SE of them there mtns and not having the forcing mechanism as it is only a 1005-8 mb slp, so qpf might not be crazy without good forcing down here in the perverbial jip zone. I'm still rooting on the weaker option so that whatever falls has less WAA to worry about.

While it is a tad concerning, based on SLP being a tick S of 6z when the goods are in the hood, i'd not worry too much. qpf distribution is driven more by SLP placement and going to weeble wooble a bit. IF the future runs do the norther shift, then you n I need to worry more.

thats my hopes as well and if tomorrow night cools enough, we could get our wish. NWS currently has me down to 22, but if clouds come in soon enough, they could cap how cold we get. Thinkin we'll be ok, and happy to see one sneak up on us. I was surely a skeptic.

not sure bout yall's back yards, but mine has a notable permafrost layer that the top layer thaws during the day, but is resolidified at night. I'm guessing this may factor into CTP's forecast concerns for the ZR/Ip that may fall, as it may have some "stickage". Eveni if it doesnt verify, its good on them to hoist the warning flags due to travel concerns as even if "they are wrong, they are getting it right for traveler awareness as this one is sneaking in the backdoor so to speak.

Ive seen enough to be getting a bit more excited for some winter weather on Friday. I admit I've been a skeptic on this evolution, but have been suggesting that the pattern is gettin less hostile for us as the NAO trends neg., but man this is how you shoehorn an event into our sub. If we can eek out a little white before the pingerfest...that'd be a huge win for many.

Then as much as you like being in the forum, I respectfully say step away for a while, as you know its winter, and most in here wait 9 months out of the year to enjoy what you hate. To that end we are going to chat it up, and if you are reading every post waiting for the warm n sunny ones to help you, obviously you may be seeing far more that you dislike, and that isnt a good thing for you. I say this with respect for your sanity, and not to push you away. I "go into hiding" in the summer for a reason....and not cause i dont like the board. I just know looking for the words cool and cold in summer are few and far between.

So well stated. He's stealin our stuff and using it on his board. Poor form, unless he gives our sub some creds for his posting style

I hope its still 60 in KPIT

Where do we sign...........

one of the few times I was ok w/ the warmup, as the ice/pot holes were just a wreckin ball to car suspension....and my fillings in my teeth.

Just saw that. Huhh...maybe just maybe there are 2 rabits in this weeks winter hat. Not that i believe it'll happen....yet, but is sure looks nice digitally.

yeah I'm callin this a win for me as its Christmas week and it sure helps to get me in a better mood seein snow. Friday still up in the air, but would be awesome to see snow 2x this week.

I slid across a bridge and almost through the turn i was tryin to make. I saved it tho. Wouldve been icing on the shit cake of a week I'm havin. haha....sorta

Yep. Look at 500's at timestamp of storm, and then paint a surface picture that youd think would logically fit. 0z GFS is not it to me, but as i've said a couple times, NAO is trending down as is AO, and that might be what is bring the surface maps slowly south as we get closer. Thats how I'm looking at it anyway.

I just looked back over again, and I'm just not feeling it. Surface high isnt anchored, its scootin NE as SLP approaches. Thermals are on a razors edge for many southers, so we know how that cut feels. Otoh, SLP stays SE of Pa, so I think we'll need to see how much antecedent cold can hold when qpf arrives and how strong SLP gets. I'd root for a weaker slp, based on current evolution. JMO's

While it is trending better (like 0z GFS), I think they too are a little perplexed at the evolution. It's really an outside curveball IMO, but hey contact is contact when youre swingin at anything that'll get ya snow.

hes 1 county (and about 20 miles) east of me. You're 230 miles west. Furthermore hes no troll like you. He offers tons more than you, and his reports are rather similar to much of the LSV. Try all you want, but you blew it in here a long long time ago. We've had this conversation before as well. You wont win anyone over in here. The only one you amuse is you and your climate pal that you call in for support . Take the hint and stop muckin up our forum.

lol. I know. thanks thoough.

for the forum you're supposed to be in...you are correct.

FWIW my gut says its no mucho down here but looking at thermals, we seem to barely hang long enough to get some wintery sumthin for a few hours then endin as drizzle. Thats where my head is after a brief peek at meso's and thermal profiles.