colonel717

Up .3 that's huge. GFS joins the party. Time to go all in

GFS looking better early on. We shall see.

Yes as does EURO. Nam didn't

RGEM had full phase. Will see what CMC shows.

It's shows 19 inches SAGC. I never see Icon as snowy model.

18z EURO 13inches

Ukie only goes out to 66 hrs so here is comparison to 12z

GEFS came north

NWS Pgh discussion https://x.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/2014086973758025897

I'll look forward to watching the Pens as the 0z comes out.

It aligned with those fail of the eps that missed to the south. 4-5 inches for AGC

Since the GFS sucks here is Google AI

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the aforementioned large scale pattern evolution, however differences in the details persist. The most notable question deals with the degree of interaction between the southern stream and northern stream energy over the Plains, and the overall depth/strength of the resultant phased trough. More/earlier interaction and a stronger trough would likely result in stronger downstream ridging and thus an overall storm track farther north. Latest guidance from this morning and afternoon do continue to show this farther north scenario compared to just a day ago. Confidence in this northward shift has increased slightly today, given the 12z guidance coming in close to prior 00z guidance. But there is still plenty of time for things to shift again (whether further north or back south). But we may be starting to see some better consolidation in the forecast and less run to run swings. Despite this, the exact details of these features is far from settled upon and will continue to change for any one given location. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and mass fields are slightly north of continuity, and consistent with the latest trends, and as a result, brings more major East Coast cities (NYC and Boston) into play.

WOW ICON!!!

EPS Some of these are so close but I included them in the "fail". Anything with AGC not in all purple.

Maryland area.

Saw this... "Had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago."

Crazy almost 4 days away. I just hope there is no rug pull. We have seen storms this range go poof too many times. Also snow looks to be back building on radar.