colonel717

Mix line south of 12z. We are getting crushed here. Then quick dry slot.

I have never seen anything like that 48 or so hours before a storm. I've seen less agreement on the day of the storm than 48 hours or more away

Keep in mind NAM is not running with any new recon data. If its bad, throw it out. If its good keep it and will only get better when new data incorporated.

We will always be gun shy. Not having to worry about being close to cut off is awesome.

Yes and also says snow starts as heavy wet snow. I would highly doubt that. Temps Sat 14 degrees. Gonna struggle with virga for a while as far as I can tell

Transcription (OCR) SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1512Z THU JAN 22 2026 MDS STATUS... GOES-E MDS Sector 1 will be centered over 33.7N/104.1W from 23/0600Z to 24/1200Z in support of winter wx ops across portions of the Southwest. 12Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP... 70133/OTZ - 10159.. 70200/OME - 10159.. 70308/SNP - 10159.. 70326/AKN - 10159.. 72274/TWC - 10159.. 72363/AMA - 10159.. 72582/LKN - 10159.. 72597/MFR - 10159.. 72776/TFX - 10159.. 72785/OTX - 10159.. 91165/LIH - 10159.. 91285/ITO - 10159.. 72202/MFL - No report.. 72215/FFC - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72240/LCH - No report.. 72251/CRP - No report.. 72365/ABQ - No report.. 72476/GJT - No report.. 72493/OAK - No report.. 72558/OAX - No report.. 72562/LBF - No report.. 72634/APX - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72645/GRB - No report.. 72662/UNR - No report.. 72797/UIL - No report.. 74455/DVN - No report.. 72393/VBG - Missing TTAA for NAM.. in for GFS. Green/SDM/NCO/NCEP What This Message Means (Plain English) 1. Who sent this Issued by a Senior Duty Meteorologist at NWS / NCEP Central Operations (College Park, MD). These are internal operational coordination messages, not public forecasts. 2. MDS Status (Satellite Operations) GOES‑East (GOES‑E) Mesoscale Domain Sector 1 is being repositioned. Center point: 33.7°N / 104.1°W Roughly eastern New Mexico / west Texas Time window: Start: 23 Jan 2026 at 0600Z End: 24 Jan 2026 at 1200Z Purpose: To support winter weather operations across parts of the Southwest. Meaning: Enhanced satellite resolution and faster scans focused on an active winter weather area. 3. 12Z Updated RAOB Recap RAOB = Radiosonde Observation (weather balloon data) 12Z = 12:00 UTC model initialization time Stations Reporting Successfully Stations listed with 10159: Indicates data received and processed normally. Includes sites such as: OTZ (Kotzebue) OME (Nome) AMA (Amarillo) OTX (Spokane) LIH / ITO (Hawaii) Stations with Missing or Partial Data “No report” No usable balloon data received at all. “No report for NAM.. in for GFS” Data missed the NAM model cutoff Still available for the GFS model “Missing TTAA” TTAA = mandatory upper‑air pressure data codes Missing critical sounding levels for NAM ingest These data gaps can: Reduce short‑range model accuracy (especially NAM) Impact local forecast confidence during active weather 4. Why This Matters Operationally Balloon data and focused satellite coverage are critical during winter weather events Missing soundings can affect: Snowfall totals Ice forecasts Placement of frontal boundaries That’s why this message highlights: Where enhanced satellite support is active Which stations did or did not report

It is outa here so much quicker than others. GFS at hour 90 isn't close to done.

AIEURO takes warm nose into Laurels.

I actually thought that WAS the high end version when I first saw it.

That is surprising to me that they'd put that out something with high totals out this early. Which I take to mean it could be much higher. Usually they go lower and adjust higher as we get closer.

Something to consider is will there be arctic front enhanced snows. Could help enhance totals; just for whom is to be determined. I'm sure that will help in the Laurels.

You beat me to it was just posting those. Saved me from using my attachment limit... Great consistency on them. I wish that site includes all 30 of the members but it gives a good indication.

Next weekend

They are in Indianapolis and then dont get as much with GFS. https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2014368156240990484 BAM Weather @bam_weather The GFS is just wrong I am telling you all it's wrong trust me. Side by side w/the ECMWF right GFS left It's not handling this low and the phase correctly at all and it's on an island with how it evolves. It's a matter of time before it caves to the ECM. Just watch.

Its also almost 1.3 inch of qpf.

GFS is almost repeat of 6z

AIGFS brings low just south of us.

The eventual NAM replacement brings mix line into tip of SAGC

I would guess more than 15 inches or more may do it. 20 definitely would if we are going back to 1800's

ICON sucks for thermals, such a warm bias. I dont recall it ever showing mix precip between rain and snow lines on any surface map.

I personally don't throw any solution out. I have heard too many times "its an outlier" only for it to be most similar to end solution. There is so much energy floating around what ever is the focus can change each run. I knew getting to the finish line on this one was going to be a struggle with some models ultimately showing things we don't like. What fun would it be if there was no angst... Enjoy the angst. Another Pens game tonight. I Like Ike by the way...

Still out of its range. But is a possible outcome. I think anything over 6 inches is a win.