colonel717

Now that there is a consensus of a storm this weekend, models are all going to differ up until gametime on how much of the southern vort get absorbed. Gonna affect how north or south it goes. Even if every model shows they all fully absorb it, it only matters what happens at gametime and we won't have that answer any sooner. Time for me to stop getting caught up in every different model and run. Too tiring.

Would be nice to pull in 3 inches tomorrow as an appetizer.

Here are several EPS members that with ratios would likely give us 1-2ft So there is some ability for this storm to improve.

NWS Pgh discussion Starting to hear alot of chatter about snow this weekend? Lets break down the forecast and discuss some potential outcomes, and have a moment to talk about forecast uncertainty: We like to think about the forecast as a train heading into the rail yard. You start on one track. As you go through time, that one track turns into two, then perhaps four, and eventually, you could end up with tens on potential tracks the train could take as it arrives. Lets think of these tracks as potential scenarios for the weather. You start off the forecast process right now on one track (there is really only one scenario for what's happening right now). Out a couple days, there may be a couple scenarios for what weather might happen. If you go out as far as 5-7 days, the forecast has a good deal of uncertainty with many potential scenarios. Ironically, much of the uncertainty in the weekend storm (most likely to happen between Saturday night and Monday) will come down to "tracks" (not the railroad ones). For simplicity, well break the storm potential down into three scenarios... Scenario #1: The storm track stays well to the south and the area ends up with very little to no snow. This would produce <1" of snow accumulations, if any. This scenario is around 20% likely at this point given current weather prediction guidance. While mostly dry, scenario would be the coldest (temperatures 20-30F below average). Scenario #2: The storm track forms to the south and then curves north as it heads towards the mid-Atlantic region. In this scenario, the region would see snow, but not the worst of the storm. This storm track would produce notable accumulations (likely >1" but <6"). This scenario is around 50% likely at this point given current weather prediction guidance. Scenario #3: The storm track forms to the south then curves up the spine of the Appalachians before reforming off the coast. In this scenario, the region would see the heaviest snow from the storm. This track would produce heavy accumulations (likely >6" to as much as 12"). But this scenario is 30% at this time given current weather prediction guidance. Given the current forecast, here's what we know right now: eastern Ohio and northwest PA have the lowest probability of warning criteria snow (>6"), while the ridges of PA/WV have the highest probability of warning criteria snow). Remember, staying in tune with the forecast will be important, because as we draw closer, we will know more information and gather forecast confidence as we narrow down the amount of potential "tracks" and iron out more specific details of snow amounts and impacts.

EURO looks like 7-12 depending on ratios

KMA looks similar to Ukie

I agree if something like the ICON is the end result, more than satisfied.

UKie is 15+

Its south but still a decent hit due to ratios. Actually turns out better as run finished 13-14 inches We have until late tomorrow when storm comes ashore.

looks worse early on. Midrange model mayhem...

GFS not on board, as well as AI version way south.

Just minor changes...

Yea, sensing the same. I think this is 6-12 due to high ratios for us while those to our south and east are 1-2 ft+. But we do still have time. There was a lot of north movement esp by GFS and feel that may halt today. But then I think closer to weekend we may see another push north.

Ukie with ratios would be 11-15 for the area.

Hope you are right. I think the largest storm we had since 2010 was 13 inches in Dec 2020. I know Jan 2016 southern counties had more than that, but for AGC I think 13 was most.

Could see some decent squalls Wednesday evening. We will nickel and dime our way to 44 inches.

Good explanation on how this should co.e north.

Hopefully GFS is overdoing the warmth and rain Wed and early Thursday. Would suck to lose most of the snow. The wind has been brutal and has been decimating snow pack as it is.

AIEuro would be nice hit. .9 liquid depending on ratios 9-18 in, then it's showing another bomb around 28th. So 3 windows ahead, 24th-26, 27th-29, 31st to Feb 2.

My brother lives in Northern Delaware so I always root for him. A foot would take us to around 40in for the winter. There is another bomb showing end of month.

That sucks. So frustrating. Sun just popped out here. Picked up about 1/3 inch. Looks like 1 more quick band for me then done it would appear.

UKie south but still decent snow

Now keep UKie in our camp... Heavy Snow here now so enjoying this and building the base.