HoarfrostHubb

BOX into the winds Saturday... A deep positively tilted H5 trough stretching from Hudson Bay to Alabama develops on Sat. Out ahead of this high amplitude trough, strong SW flow will yield PWAT plume of 1.3 inches, or 99th percentile according to NAEFS ensemble situational awareness table. Strong jet dynamics (u and v wind component also at 99th percentile) acting on the anomalous moisture plume will support periods of heavy rain Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s but could be as warm as the 50s, depending on eventual track of surface low and associated warm sector (most likely southeast MA). All model guidance has surface wave rapidly intensifying as it tracks somewhere between the I-95 corridor to Cape Cod, then along or just off the Maine coast as a sub 970 mb low. The low continues to deepen over the Maritimes Sat night. This rapid intensification, combined with strong cold air advection on the backside and impressive pressure rise/fall couplet, will support strong to perhaps damaging winds as the low exits southern New England late Sat into Sat night. With 925mb temps rising to +10 to +13C across southeast MA and RI on Sat afternoon, the potential of damaging pre-frontal winds mixing to the surface would appear to hinge on the amount of insolation with best chance of damaging winds across the MA coastal plains away from the immediate south coast (SSTs are still in the lower 40s). NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer at mid 40 to low 50 kts. In addition, rain likely ends as a period of snow from west to east late Sat/Sat evening, with some minor accumulations possible across the interior higher elevation across the East Slopes and northern Worcester Hills.

My dog enjoyed another freshie walk this morning

A couple of tics east is all it would take... not sure it happens but wouldn't be hard to do... like, 50-100 miles.

You're trying too hard

We take... still room to move either way though

4.5” final it appears. Up to 44.00” for the season. 30” or so to reach normal

Yeah. I’m sure spring will be early. But don’t count out a rogue event

You seriously don’t think you get even an inch until next Novie?

Driving up Rte 2 this afternoon, plows were out. Turned onto 140. Plows going down that as well. Slow ride home. My side road hasn’t been touched yet. But no biggie.

Started a thread for the Saturday event

A decent slug of moisture followed by a sharp temp drop and strong winds will be hitting the region Saturday. SNE looks to be mostly, if not all, rain. Parts of W SNE look to pick up a couple of inches of snow towards the end Parts of NNE , especially N VT, might be getting a good snowstorm

I think I get at least one more measurable after this weekend.

4” here. Not sure I get to 5”.

I meant to reply to you about the wind here. Probably some of the strongest winds I have ever experienced/heard here. Just intense for 5 minutes or so. Yesterday I looked in our backyard. Lawn furniture scattered around like I have not had happen in my 24 years here.

Good call

A little over 3” here on my paved walkway

Currently down 22% https://oilprice.com

Nope. When I checked, the futures for heating oil were down 23%

Wow! We pre-bought our oil last summer... $2.79 per gallon (I think?) We might wind up using more than we bought though

Heating oil down 23% Torch Tiger getting the word out?

Some accumulation from my limited view here in Leominster. Maybe 1/2" to an inch but I'm in one of the courtyard thing at my building. Not a good representation

Storage has been a big issue. That is getting better... all of the technologies are getting better but some of that is still sourced outside the US which blows

Taco Bell

Not oil Coal (yuck), natural gas, nuclear are the big 3 Plenty of wind and solar potential out there so, plus a sprinkling of other techs (olive pits, etc)

Ice is always a tricky one. If it is is the middle of the day I would question it for sure. Predawn, go with safety 1-2" of snow in March shouldn't require cancellations etc.