HoarfrostHubb

From BOX wrt this event: Thursday night/Friday/Fri night... Potent upper low over the western Great Lakes ejects short wave energy toward SNE this period. Modest jet dynamics and moisture plume accompany this feature. However, given high latitude block, some duration to the precip, from Thu night into possibly early Sat morning. Ensembles (ECENS & GEFS) both supporting QPF ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches, with low probs of 2+ inches in spots. As for ptype, temp anomalies from the ensembles indicate airmass on the front end is only seasonably cold. Therefore, it will be difficult to maintain cold air, unless low level circulation from secondary frontal wave tracks offshore. There remains a large spread in the guidance regarding the track of this secondary wave, however, more members are farther west, tracking along the coast or across SNE. The GFS and its ensembles are on the east side of the envelope, hence a colder/snowier solution. Given the antecedent airmass is not anomalously cold combined with upper low over the western Great Lakes, the low level circulation likely won`t track offshore, and cold air should erode quickly. The exception will be across the high terrain of western MA, where cold air will linger longer, supporting the risk for several inches of snow. The ECENS has high probs for 3+ of snow here, GEFS is lower. Accumulating snow also possible for northern Worcester county, albeit lower probs than the Berkshires. Elsewhere, odds favor a chilly, windswept rain, especially for coastal plain, where a low level easterly jet of 40-50 kt quickly erodes the cold air. This strong low level jet may also translate to wind gusts up to 35-45 mph, so wind advisories may be need for the coastline.

Yeah. I could definitely see it being at either end...

What do you think for out this way? My early call is 3-5" with a change to rain for most of the event

Was hoping for a snow day for the 3 districts in my household. Mine is definitely off the table. The other 2 are maybe in play.

Make sure you find a supervisor to complain to

Windshield wipers in effect for now. Hopefully it can end on a swish to the east

Whoops

Again, thank you Kevin W (Not CT Blizz) for this. I really appreciate it. Hope you are well

Big Baffin Block... that's the title of my next 90's rap album

Well, there hasn't been much to support accumulating snow in his hood with this event in a while.

Sorry kids...there is no Santa Claus. Just a raw screw zone

Gah. Not what I was hoping for.

NAVGEM went east! We are saved by the Navy! (still not great)

50-75 miles east and a lot of people would be happy

Colder rain... actually, tropical tidbits clown shows 6" of snow for you somehow. But it is better

Well, the CMC looks like azz...so there's that

Yeah... still a bit warm

Wachusett getting over a foot. Someone near the western MA/CT border with 20"

KTOL looks good on the GFS

Maybe you can get a Norlun to save your family

Latest BOX AFD about Friday Friday through Sunday... We look to remain dry through about 00Z Friday, but ensemble and deterministic guidance is gaining clarity in a coastal low-Miller B type system developing off the New Jersey coast late Thursday; moving northward into our area for Friday and the early part of Saturday. There has been a lot of buzz regarding the uncertainty in the forecast for this event, but of the 50 member ECWMF ensemble suite, only ONE member presents a solution with the low tracking across the "blockbuster noreaster" benchmark southeast of Nantucket. There is actually considerable agreement, and run to run consistency, that this low will track near the NJ coast, over Long Island, and up the CT River Valley; indicative of a rain event except across the high terrain of NW MA and western CT. Of course, with this forecast being several days out, shifts are expected in the forecast, but this track is supported by several synoptic conditions including the surface high pressure being located to far north and east, and mid level ridging in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe ahead of the low. There will be a considerable amount of moisture associated with this system, with over 1" of QPF forecast for the 24 hour period 00Z Fri to 00 Sat. While we expect mostly rain across the coastal plain, localities that are able to tap into enough cold air to see snow may see plowable amounts, with both GEFS and ECWMF ensemble probabilities on the board for 3-6"+ of snow across the Berkshires. At this time, it appears the most considerable snow accumulations will be across northern New England, which is good news for winter sports enthusiasts!

Euro gives Berkshire East area 24" Not bad

3.0” final here. Overperformer

About 2.25” of baking powder here. Not a bad little event

Drove back from Bristol RI. Normal 1.5 hour ride took 2.5. Roads were pretty bad for only 1-2”