BOX AFD sums it up well
Thursday and Beyond... The main focus for the long term remains the potential for an impactful coastal storm sometime Thursday to Saturday. A bit of a windshield wiper effect has taken hold of the end of the long term forecast as deterministic guidance is having difficulty resolving the complex pattern that develops across the CONUS next week. As more data is incorporated into the models as the weather system tracks across the west, a better picture should develop over the coming days. Even so, some run to run consistency has begun to develop, and ensemble surface lows have begun to cluster off of the mid-Atlantic sometime in the late Thursday to early Friday timeframe. While there is significant uncertainty in P-Type at this time, confidence is growing that some sort of precipitation will fall across our CWA late week/early next weekend as the low tracks near to or over our region. NBM PoPs again range in the likely category, and unlike the last few evenings, we elected to keep PoPs at likely given growing confidence in the existence of the event. Trends will need to be carefully analyzed to evaluate the potential impacts and geographic range of accumulating snow.