wxeyeNH

It's snowing pretty good on top of Wildcat per the cam and on the summit of Mt Washington as this patch of showers is moving through

Here she comes....

The mountain have cleared out. How much color did you lose with the fropa? Still looks good. Meantime, get ready....

No rain with the fropa. My last beneficial rain was Sept 22nd. .15" since then and the next chance of rain will be in about a week. Areas south of me got rain this week and areas north of me got at least some showers today.

Today we took a 100 mile drive through the Whites. From our house near Plymouth up to Lincoln, over the Kanc, to Bartlett through Crawford Notch then west to Rt 93 and south through Franconia Notch. The foliage was the best I have ever seen it. Not quite peak in Lincoln but everything north of there was. Clear skies today and perfect temperatures. We have not had any rain to speak of nor wind in the past 2 weeks. Usually leaves turn at slightly different times and rain and wind strips some trees while others are not a peak yet. Not this year. I took the drone up in Crawford Notch but I screwed up and didn't have the automatic aperture and white balance setting so the video exposures were not right and viewing the video seemed more washed out than what the eye sees. Unfortunately tomorrow afternoon we have the cold front with wind. That will take down quite a few leaves just as all the peepers arrive. Today was the day for the Whites.

Color is coming on very quick in the NW Lakes Region of NH. I think we will take another ride to the Whites tomorrow. With the fropa coming and breezy conditions the foliage will take a hit in peak areas. Stick season is coming for PF pretty soon.

I wish we could let Phin back in to this NNE forum. He was a great poster. If you just stick to weather all can be good. It has worked well for me these past 20 something years. Is there anyway to contact him or find out from an admin if there is something we can do? Brian, any thoughts? Meanwhile it is getting very dry again. A couple of soakers a couple of weeks ago but my pond is still bone dry. Usually is refilling by now

Tonight (Monday 10/3) the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders. I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations. I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job. Most models were much further north a couple of days out. The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent. Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar. A slight jog brings the center much further north or south. Thoughts?

We took a drive to Franconia Notch this morning. The foliage was nice but kind of muted. My guess is the peak is a few days away. I also took the drone up for a look around.

A friend of mine was up in Colebrook yesterday and said the color is peaking. He took this shot. With the cold nights and light winds this week the colors should come on strong in the Northern Greens and Whites

I saw this video posted on the tropical forum. This is the best example of storm surge I have ever seen.

Very interesting satellite view right now. The LL circulation is going ESE. Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center. This will be interesting to see how this plays out. I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out.

I would bet the death toll will be in the dozens at least So many elderly people with big storm surge in various areas.

Awhile ago Cape Coral Yauht Club 106 sustained gusting to 140mph. That would be on the backside with a north wind I would guess. That yacht club is right across from Ft Myers. The damage that is occurring in the Punta Gorda and Ft Myers on the backside must be catastrophic.

This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber

Eye is trying to clear out. Unlike Michael where the stadium effect eye past over mostly deserted areas if we can get the low clouds to clear there might be some spectacular pictures to come.

I'm surprised with the increase in intensity the east side of the eyewall's returns are weaker in comparison to the rest of the wall. That has to be closer to the land based radar site so I would think it would be stronger? Thoughts?

I want to give a shout out to a good friend of mine, Bob Turk who is retiring as an on air weather personality after 49 1/2 years at Ch 13 WJZ-TV in Baltimore. Bob and I grew up in the same neighborhood in the NW suburb of Baltimore. He is 9 years older than me. Like me he is a geography major. Back around 1972 he answered a newspaper ad in the Baltimore Sun as Ch 13 was looking for an on air weather personality. He got the job and has been a staple of Baltimore TV since then. In the days before radar I would frequently call him before going on air to let him know if any thunderstorms were popping up. I would go down to the station frequently and hang out. Bob is not a meteorologist but has enough knowledge to forecast pretty accurately. Growing up and living in the same city also helps. He has a passion for weather and that is what is important in the business (in my opinion). When I graduated collage I decided to relocate to new England. My friends threw me a going away get together and Bob was there. We have maintained a friendship and frequently converse during weather events. Bob is probably the longest on air weather personality and possibly the longest on air personality in the country. (Harvey was probably pretty close) I wish him the best in retirement. He deserves it at 75 years old and being on TV every night.

12Z GFS Landfall Thursday 2am. Just NW of Ft Myers area. 975mb. This position is slightly NW of last run

At 30 hours GFS is a bit west again.

Time sensitive 1030am. High resolution visible shows Ian moving ENE along the north coast of Cuba https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Here is 925mb winds and surface wind gusts at its closest approach to Tampa

Never use the NAM for tropical systems. Never, Never, Never. 12Z NAM is a big shift west vs it's 6Z run

I use Weatherbell for model info. Great product. I am not sure how accurate the GFS wind products are, but this is the wind gusts in mph when Ian makes it closest approach to Tampa (18Z). It almost stalls in this position at around 967mb bring strong south winds into Tampa Bay.

630pm Tropical Tidbit discussion