wxeyeNH

Light to moderate rain. About .40". Looks to end soon.

Speaking of AFD, I always see so many spelling mistakes and sentences that don't make sense etc. I didn't read the one you are talking about but it happens very often and is a pet peeve of mine. If I were sending something out to the public I would double check what I wrote. It doesn't take too much time to go back and proofread especially in a weather pattern that is fairly benign.

What a great view for a weather weenie. Being able to watch snow lines etc. on the cone of Mt Washington. Nice to be able to advertise such views. Of course, could rent the property and end up seeing nothing at all.

It's going to be interesting to see what model is most correct with the northern edge of the Florence precip. 18Z came north enough so that I'm forecasted to get near 2" while previous runs gave me near nothing. Sharp northern edge storms have huge bust potentials. Will be interesting to watch although NNE is out of this one and the wait continues.

Not sure what thread to post this in but a real hard forecast in my region coming up. Florence rain up and out! Where does the swath set up? Up until the 18Z GFS I was just north of the rain on both models giving me basically no rain to speak off. Then the GFS comes north to give me 2". Glad this is not a snow situation. Huge bust potential through my towns up here.

The last couple of mornings has been fun with the drone. Living near a hilltop at 1100 feet with the surrounding area being around 550 feet I'm usually close to the top of valley fog. As a kid I always wished I could fly a plane or helicopter next to a building CuB and punch the clouds in and out. Guess the drone is the next best thing. So yesterday morning took the drone up a 200-300 feet overhead to the cloud tops and tried to punch into them. For those that like that kind of thing here is my Utube video.

The trend for the swath of heaviest rain has been to push it south with each run. The new 18Z GFS has reversed that trend and brings the swath north a bit. It has the real heavy rain running roughly along the Mass Pike on the southern edge and up to the Whites on the northern edge. I'm sure more adjustments forthcoming.

12Z Sunday Euro and GFS are in very good agreement as to where the heavy rain sets up with Flo coming up and out to sea. Just north of this cut off line, there is a big rainfall deficit over the past several months. Just south of the line there has been excessive rain over the same period. Wish we could reverse this and give me ( the X) and points north a good soak. On and on this goes..... 12Z Euro forecasted rainfall for Flo

Fields are again super dry. Of the 4 chestnut saplings, the one in the shade is doing good. The others are dropping leaves and ground is hard as rock. I just can't keep watering deep enough. Pond remains empty and the brook at the bottom of my hill is trickling. NNE needs a good soak. Here's the new 12Z Euro. NNE and me get the shaft yet again. You'll get 2-3" and report about chickens floating around and I'll watch the hills south of me obscured in rain why I'll sit high and dry yet again. Still time for adjustments 50 miles N/S

Driving around my area yesterday the streams have almost no water in them. I'm running between a 9-12" rainfall deficit in the past 180 days while areas just south of me have a surplus. NNE needs rain. Yet again it looks like a good slug of rain from the remains of Flo will pass just to the south of the areas that need it. Still time to move it north but trends don't look good.

Tip.... You are 110% right. The hype was over the top, especially once it was downgraded to a Cat 1.

Dave, Over the past years the peak for me in the NW Lakes Region is Oct 17th. Everyone comes up for Columbus Day, and its colorful for sure but after the peeps head back south the real color wave happens. 2 years ago was spectacular. Last year was fair. Meanwhile, 3 bears have been hit this week by cars in my town and the towns right around me. First the squirrels now the bears...one was roaming in my pastures yesterday

I just love this. Everything is over hype and breaking news. Wonder if the producers asked him before hand to perfect his sway.

I'm starting to watch what happens with Flo as the storm gets caught up in the westerlies and we get the moisture next Tuesday. I hope the swath of rain is right up here in Central New England. Still big rainfall deficit since April for me. A nice 2-4" would be great. Not just rain, but a wet, wet rain.

Unless I'm reading the recon reports wrong the recon went thru the eye very recently and found 952.5mb.

I lived in Boston during Gloria. Everyone was taping their windows. I remember driving down Comm. Ave in Allston. Building after building with tape.

Mark, I use this site https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Tip, It might have been you that made a post like this last year with Irma. Sometimes once a hurricane goes through a period of RI and then levels off or slowly weakens it never gets it's act 100% back together again. Even though shear is weak and SST are warm I wonder if Flo will hold server or just slowly weaken from this point on. I doubt we will see the winds increase back up over 140 or 145mph. Eye has temporarily become cloud filled.

A very good friend of mine, her husband and 2 dogs moved to Mrytle Beach last year. About 3 or 4 miles inland. New modest home. No trees. They bought a generator last winter when they got an inch or snow and lost power. They have plenty of gas for it. They are asking me for advice. Do they travel hundreds of miles trying to find a hotel or ride it out? She knows Im a weather geek and asked me to call this eve after looking at the latest models. My thinking is that if the eyewall comes ashore or partially ashore 50 miles north in the Wilmington area they would at okay at first. West offshore wind. By the time the storm drifts SW it would be downgraded somewhat. So they would definitely loose power but be okay that far inland from major structural damage. A new home built to code could handle 80-85mph gusts. If I had a new home that far inland I would hesitate to just pack up and leave not knowing when I could return.

The 18Z GFS and the 12Z Euro are in very close agreement now. Approach to NC just north of Wilmington. Stall then SW movement near or just off the coast. Then the 2nd landfall down in Southern/Central SC.

Much worse track on the new GFS. Not much population on the Outer Banks. Bringing Flo so much further SW bring the Wilmington area into the eyewall. 117,000 population.

1.37" rain last night and this AM. Largest qpf event since the snowstorms late last winter. Broke down and made a small fire in the wood stove yesterday.

Have not been on the internet or looked at the storm until just now. First thing was looking at the satellite and now reading this thread. Flo didn't look super on the vis, surprised its near Cat 5.

The 18Z GFS was interesting since it has Flo looping around in the Carolinas long enough for the trough coming down from Canada yanking it NE through us as a 985mb low, around day 8. Any chance of that happening?

Reading the 5pm NHC discussion they mentioned that new disturbance heading towards the Gulf. Looking pretty healthy late this afternoon. If the SE ridge gets broken down sooner than later wouldn't that perhaps give the southern solutions more credence?