wxeyeNH

Around 40F all morning with light rain.   Meanwhile 1500 feet away it was snowing.  (Above me).   Cat paw season has begun up here.   Hey, that would be a good name for a handle AMWX.  Only us weenies would know the significance.

Things were getting very colorful yesterday.  Probably approaching 75% and perhaps 3 days away from a stunning peak.  Then today Michael's wind put an end to that.  A huge amount of leaves came down today in gusty winds.  Mostly maples while the oaks are just starting to turn.  Some years the weather cooperates some years not.  

I'm guessing south of my area of Central NH is okay since most trees are just starting to change.  Without major wind over the next week that area will be able to reach a very colorful peak..

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Storm total here 0.79", now up to 13.25" since July 1, about 1" below my average and dwarfed by points south.  Yesterday's temps 50/44, classic mid-fall.

Tamarack Im 12.23" since July 1.  

1.06" brings me up to 1.73" for the month and 16.77" since April 25th when the heavy winter rain/snow turned off.  Over next 10 days perhaps another .25".  So that would bring me to about  17" for the past 6 months.  Looking at the AHPS maps Im about 75% of normal precip.

Foliage is at about 75%.  Peak should be within a few days.

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

 

Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time? 

 

Last 2 storms...  People expected a Cat 4 in NC and got a Cat 1.  People in the Panhandle expected a Cat 1 and got a Cat 4. 

 I agree intensity forecasts stink compared to track forecasts.   The NHC discussions seemed to play catchup time and time again with this storm.  I wonder if it had another 6 hours before landfall how low the pressure would have gone?  Lots of discussion about mid level shear.  Dry air in Gulf.  Shallow water.  Storms almost always lose intensity as they approach the extreme N Gulf waters.  Nothing mattered with Mike.  Eye was even clear 15 miles inland.  

It was an amazing storm and luckily it hit in a low populated area all and all although East Panama City had huge amounts of damage along with Mexico Beach. Would have been worse if eye came ashore at Panama Beach and the city was in NE quad.  

I have often wondered what it would be like to be in a perfectly cleared out eye of a hurricane.  A few videos are starting to show up on Utube.  Just saw this new one.  The transition to calm sunny skies to violent 100mph+ winds must be very sharp.  In this clip watch towards the end as the eyewall sweeps in. 

This says it all.  I have never seen a perfect clear eye making US landfall.

Wow.  Getting into the 920's.   This is a serious situation.  Florence was overplayed in the media and this one so far is underplayed.  Besides the coastal situation, there will be huge tree damage through Georgia and perhaps Carolina's.  As someone interested in photography I have never seen a stadium effect on land.  Perhaps with a daylight storm we will get some at Panama City.  All those news teams on the beach are going to have to get out fast.  No need for fake camera setups with news guys trying to stay a foot.  Going to be a wild afternoon and evening down there.

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

RI is tricky business.

Conditions will support it, but storms also tend to weaken before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. So it's possible the official forecast is least likely (i.e. a Cat 2 or 4 is most likely).

My last hurricane chase was Katrina.  It was a Cat 5 in the Gulf but weakened to a Cat 3 as it approached land.   I flew down to Pensacola 2 days before landfall.  My goal was to reposition as landfall approached.   I chickened out thinking of the old pictures of Camille and storm surge so I stayed in Pensacola and only experienced TS winds.    

As far as New England I look at the tropical tidbits spaghetti models every 6 hours.  Try to see a trend.  Perhaps slightly further NW this morning.  In any event, the strong winds with a TS Michael would be l southeast of NE.  A brief period of heavy rain, some wind if the storm comes far enough NW.

More important is if the RI continues and Mike hits the panhandle as a major.  A few years ago we visited the newly developed coast from Destin Beach east to Panama City.  That stretch is comprised of new upscale beautiful communities like Miramar and Seaside.  Multi zillion dollar homes right on the dunes.  Restaurants, upscale boutique  25 miles of coastline barrier islands that were dunes and scrublands 20 years ago.  All new since the last major storm.  So much development.  This could be very bad if that stretch is right in the east eyewall.  Looks like it is close to ground zero.  

Here is 12Z Euro's position of Michael for next Sat 12Z.  I drew the line to the position 6 hours later.  Just south of the SW tip of NS.

I'm confused by the Euro.  Slows Mikey way down compared to 12Z.  Front comes through while the storm is way south.  I would have guessed it would have been a way SE solution but its not.  West of last run.  West enough it is slightly inside benchmark.  Strengthening too.  Pretty significant storm for SNE.  965mb.

65F  Mostly cloudy.  Looks like front is cutting through White Mountains right now.  Mid 60's south of the notches and Mid 50's just north.  Really nice color out there today steadily increasing.  Peak should be right before Thursday's fropa.  Then its ova up here....  Edit.  We still will have the 2nd oak peak next week...

23 hours ago, dendrite said:

Nice. That means we have an epic dry stretch coming.

or.... it could mean that the developing system in the Gulf will be yanked up here late this week and give us a quick 6" soak.  Just kidding Lava.  When we did our huge hydroseed project I was so nervous.  Let's hope its a go this time..

I just found and uploaded a video I made back in the winter of 2007/8.  Had over 130" of snow that winter.  Constant roof shoveling.  The video is around our house with about 3 feet of snow on the ground.  I zoom in on where our Adirondack chair is and you can't see it.  Back then I use to feed all the deer that yard up in our fields.  I don't do that anymore but they did have a very hard time that winter.

Driving on Route 93 up here in Central New Hampshire this morning. Up in the Plymouth area very quick changes  of colors over the past couple of days. I did this route 3 days ago and very little color and now everything is just popping very very quickly.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Switch flipped the last 2 days here too. The cold, cloudy, rainy days help. 

Same here.  Almost no color a couple of days ago and then it seems the whole canopy wants to go at the same time.  No big windy fropa's or storms upcoming which will help too.  

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently a disk completely blew out on its own. Crazy stuff. Feel like a 18 wheeler hit me. Will elucidate when I get lucid later.

Ginx.  Good luck.  I blew out a disk way back when I was 22.  Worst pain of my life.  Had to drop out of college.  Anyhow surgery worked great.  Knock on wood its been good for 42 years.  Thinking of you, it will work out!

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

My mature crabapple tree yellowed and dropped many leaves early too. On closer inspection it looks like it developed its first warm season of leaf spot...no surprise given the record humidity combined with lots of rain this summer. Keep the area in and around the drip line clear of old leaves and fruit so that the fungal spores don't get into the soil which would make things worse next year.

Brian, they definitely got leaf spot early on and dropped lots of leaves.  I'm really torn about taking the lawn tractor and blowing the leaves away from the apple trees.  So many wormy apples on the ground and the deer and bears are eating them.  The tractor destroys the apples on the ground and makes them into mush.  So I try not to mow in the apple orchard after early September.  Longer grasses and fruit for the animals.  Speaking of bears we have one that has been coming every day to apple munch.  Here he is earlier last week on that rainy day.

Took the drone up around the property yesterday.  Do any of you guys know what is going on with my apple trees?  Skip to the end of the video to see them.  They are getting old but never have they lost most of their leaves this early.  We have had a dry summer but not drought like dry.  (.77" May and then around 3/3.5" each month including September).  They were planted in 1907 so perhaps they are all getting to the end of their lives.  We are planting lots of young apple trees to take their place.  Looks like we should have done this years ago and not just in the past 2-3 years.

Just got home from a 4 hour round trip through the Whites.  Left from my house and drove up to Lincoln.  Most everything is still green in my area (Newfound Lake).  Plymouth to Lincoln, perhaps 10%.  Drove through the Kanc.  10-25% color through there.  Up through N Conway and through Crawford Notch.  At the highest elevations at very most, 25% to 35% color.  Then down through Franconia Notch.  The most color was in the Bretton Woods area and on Rt 3, north of Franconia Notch,  35% ish.  Foliage still has a long way to go.

Below are 2 pictures.  Highest road elevations in Crawford Notch and Franconia Notch.

First really good torrential soaking in many months.  Some lightning and thunder  .80" in past half an hour.  After the 1.37" yesterday finally have some water in my pond.  Last water went dry in early July.

Jeremy,   I was thinking of you the past week as we now turn the seasons and wondered where you had gone.  Good luck down there in NC.  Thanks for your drone advice over the past couple of years and for your great pictures.  Hopefully  there will be a couple of good southern snowstorms for you!

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I knew it was wet there, but I missed that CON had the 6th wettest month ever in August (10.67”) just 0.01” behind 5th (September 1938).

Im 32 miles north of Concord and received 3.79" in August.

Rain and upper 40's for much of the day.  (.50") Up to 52F now and shutting down the wood burning stove.   Yesterday took most of the screens out of the windows perhaps I should have looked at the long term.