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wxeyeNH

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    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    Wow,  I'm on the line between slight and enhanced with SPC.  Im not good at record keeping but can't remember the last time.  Does anyone keep records of enhanced or moderate for C/NNE?  Still cloudy and cool but looks like we are about to break out into brighter skies. 

    Living on an exposed hilltop always makes me nervous.  Wonder if we will get a tornado watch out of this setup?

    9th annual Lawn Thread 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dendrite said:

    It’s picking up here. Buds are starting to swell and I have green grass starting. I still have some frozen ground in the shaded spots. Someone at Lowe’s left the tomato plants outside last night....oopsy.

    Just this afternoon that the grass is starting to show signs of awakening.  When I lived down in Metro Boston and certainly growing up in Baltimore, springs and falls lasted longer.  It seems as you move towards the poles the in-between seasons are shorter.  Up here spring is a 4 or perhaps 6 weeks deal, the same for fall.  Is it my imagination?  Probably not as climatologically our weekly temperatures rise or fall very quickly with the sun angle and length of daylight.

    9th annual Lawn Thread 2018

    in New England

    Posted

    April 22nd and really no signs of spring up here.  Grass is brown.  Red maples are not even swelling yet.  Forsythia look like they did in January.  A few blades of green grass showing up on south facing lawns.  Really only loss our snowcover 2 days ago so I suspect things will move into high gear over the next couple of days.

    Still waiting for ice out on Newfound Lake.

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    in New England

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

    Back to -SN now. Cheering on subsidence from this point on now.

    2.5"  never got below 1 mile vis today.  Mostly very small flakage.  Finally in past 15 minutes a few bonafide medium flakes mixed in. Sky very bright.  Peak wind gust 14mph.  Town plow still has not bothered to go by.  Kids could easily had school. Total disasta...unless something backs in from the east.  

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    Just now, DomNH said:

    It's an infection you may get down there, but that's not important right now.

    It's the hi-res RGEM. 

    Thanks guys! 

     Great stuff today.  Good friends of ours in a group of 10 people are all heading to Guatemala via MIA at 730am out of Logan on Wed AM.  They are all texting me asking if they will get out.  Hum.  The storm will be basically over, diminishing winds with ongoing cleanup. I would guess the equipment would have to already be on the ground from the evening before for a departure that early.  I gave them a 75% chance of this working out...

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    I don't know about you Gene but a solid 6 to 12 is pretty exciting 

    Yep Scott,  lock me in for my 6-12".  I do have a question for you.  During that last storm the pivot/deformation band sat over the W Mass/S VT to give them the high totals.  Given the slp track now SE of the benchmark where would that probably set up?  Seems like there is many times a secondary max way west?  Edit.  Since I wrote this and reviewing the new posts my question has been answered,  further east than me!

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    Okay,  not to be a Debbie here but I'm not seeing what everyone is so excited about with today's trends.  Just looked at the Euro and GFS.  Euro run shifted east from 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted precip east from 12Z.  Sure its a huge storm,  960 something but the trend which was great all weekend has come to a halt.  Yeah the 18Z NAM was epic but like people always say, its the NAM.  I would rather go with the big boys.  Too bad the 12Z come in so late now...

    • Like 1

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    Thank you Tip for explaining why the models seem to bring so much qpf westward up here in the mountains.  Good stuff..

    Question.  If the blend of model runs held serve would this track and slp intensity  warrant blizzard conditions along the coast?  Low goes pretty far east so I don't know if the coast gets 40mph plus winds for 3 hours.    We have close friends flying with their kids to a long-planned trip to Guatemala out of Logan on Wednesday morning.  They are asking me if they will get out.  The storm should be in cleanup phase by then, hopefully...

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    nah ... just a failed phase entirely after several sources showed a definitive two-run trend toward more.

    18z managed perhaps 70% in the more proficient versions, down toward 30 or so for the GFS (interestingly the GEFs mean was way more).  But those upper tier demonstrations have gone almost to 0 ...maybe 10% ... on this cycle. It's weird that this thing is checking in and out like that -

    It really hearkens to the extreme sensitivity ...  At hour 30 or so...you almost can't discern this happening but variations worked in on this run and shattered matters. The presence of that weak short wave in the western ridge isn't really effecting the slope of the N stream so I'm not sure that's something to blame there. 

    I still believe SE zones have a shot at a warning level system as I did when we started out on this thread's crusade .. whether that evolves to be more remains to be seen.  

    So dumbing down your saying that the even though the 0Z GFS looks much better than the previous runs it really is by chance and not a good phase and the trend is worse if you are looking for a good storm.  Saying that the SE zones just has a chance of a warning level system sure doesn't leave me with a warm and fuzzy feeling as I go to bed!

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Not quite as extreme but it reminds me (meteorologically...not from memory as I'm not old enough) of the roughly 2 week period between Jan 21-Feb 6, 1978...just kept getting dynamic bomb solutions out of seemingly every threat. Very high dynamics in each system. Also had a rotting NAO block much of the time. 

    I remember that period well.  January 21rst storm was the biggest snowfall in Boston history then the Blizzard of 78 two weeks later.  I was a college student at the University of MD and salivated listening to scratchy distant WBZ broadcast what was going on up here.  

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