wxeyeNH

I had pretty much discounted this storm up here.  12Z runs very encouraging.  Arrghh  on the time change.  We need to change this like the way it was a few years ago when I think it happened later in March...

Watching it on Weatherbell.  Out to hour 30 seems a bit north with the lower Miss basin qpf

13 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

Anybody besides me see the meteor yesterday evening? Just before 6pm, driving north on 91, saw a decent fireball. There were several reports from PA to ME.

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Lots of people saw it all over New England.  My neighbor swears it landed just behind his house!  He said it went down just behind his trees.  Highly doubtful.  I told him he should take the day off and go into his woods and find it.  A 1 pound meteorite is worth about a million bucks!

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

This is their shot from last night. They said it was brief and it doesn't appear it was super bright.

Looking at that shot I am trying to figure out the city light sources.  To the extreme right must be Berlin.  Maybe Littleton on the left?  Then on the far horizon that must be Montreal.  Years ago I did a winter overnight edu trip at the summit.  A noreaster was developing down in the mid-Atlantic and the cirrus shield had made it over SNE.  Boston's lights were quite visible reflecting up to the underside of the clouds.  Actually, this would be a neat question to the observers.  If a cirrus shield was over NYC would they be able to see the cirrus lit that far away.  I think it would be possible. For some reason the "how far can you see"  question has always interested me.

Edit.  Maybe the horizon lights are Burlington?

KP index a 5 so I went to the top of the hill for a look.  Definite brightening on the north horizon but with the naked eye I could not make out any detail.  Need to be able to see to fairly low to the north to notice.  Moon rises around 9pm which will probably kill anything after that....

I went up to the top of my hill last night and couldn't see anything.  My friend Dave setup at the foot of Newfound Lake and with a time exposure caught them very faintly.  Like the ones I briefly saw last week they are usually far on the north horizon.  The key lately is you really need to have an unobstructed north view without any city lights in that direction...

Here's the pic he posted on his site...

1 hour ago, Plokoon111 said:

A question: What causes the water past NC to be drastically cooler? 

The Gulf Stream comes up from the Florida area.  NC sticks out to the east.  So basically the warm waters of the Gulf Stream move NE well out east of the east coast north of NC.  So take a look at the water temperatures and you will see a quick large drop off of water temperatures. 

42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z spaghetti models

These are the 12Z runs.  The 18Z have more models bending west.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

"The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

"There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

His twitter account has been inactive for the last 8 hours. He had been giving updates at least once an hour prior to that. Here is his last post.

Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone  8h8 hours ago

More

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation

I'm guessing the cell towers might be out on the SE side of the island where he was.  This will probably be one of his more unpleasant chases.  Might take awhile for him to get back to San Juan.  Getting a flight out of the island might take awhile too.  

Watching the live news from San Juan.  Winds are quite light.  Are they in the eye area?  I'm guessing the wind will come back ripping from the south?

Recon about to go through the eye again...

Recon   919.6mb?

With the eye looking so good on infrared Im surprised the vis. shows a low cloud cover.  We will know very shortly what's going on, recon getting close...

Roseau the capitol of Dominica is on the SW part of the island.  Sure looks like a beautiful town.  Looks like a roaring west wind with a large storm surge that will come in as the eye passes just northeast.  Dominica is a tropical paradise.  Forests will be basically gone tomorrow.. 

Maria's small eye is amazing.  The pressure has to be so much lower than the last recon.  When is the next plane due in?  The eye is so small that the exact path of the eyewall will be crucial.  

The 5pm track over PR is also the worst possible.  Puts San Juan in the right front quad with screaming winds from the east right off the ocean.  Most of the 3 million people live in the northeast part of the island....

35 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

37 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox.  So my email address is [email protected]   After signing up I realized it should be  herbertbox not  herbertsbox.  People always ask me what herbertsbox means.  No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me...  Okay, back to Maria....
 

Hebert...

Jeez never caught that too. I'm so lame thanks 

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the first time in the satellite era that 3 hurricanes as intense as Irma, Jose, and Maria passed through the Hebert Box #1 in one month or a complete season.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=91

 

As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox.  So my email address is [email protected]   After signing up I realized it should be  herbertbox not  herbertsbox.  People always ask me what herbertsbox means.  No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me...  Okay, back to Maria....

Well for the moment I don't see anything so it was fleeing or maybe it will start back up again but bed time for me.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I haven't seen the real deal since the 03 event. Tilton is more NE of me than due north. I don't expect to see anything, but I'll glimpse out every so often. Thanks for the heads up.

Yes,  the 03 event was like "wow what is going on" .  Spectacular.  Going to drive up to the hill one more time right now...just to see if its brighter...

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Similar trees to the north here...about 30deg. The tree line is along the bottom of the big dipper right now. I have some slight life to the north (rt 3...hannaford, cvs, etc) so maybe the bit of light is flooding it out. If i can't see it with the bare eyeit's a non event for me. I'll keep peeking a bit longer.

It was all below the Big Dipper angle.  Only 2 or 3 times  living here full time since 2001 have I seen AB near overhead.  I know you have Tilton's lights to your north too...

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Peeking out now. How far on the horizon? I see nada yet.

Just got back to the house.  It's really like 25 degrees or maybe 35 degrees above the horizon.  From my house with trees to my north I can't see anything.  If I drive up my road 1/2 mile to the hilltop and look to the north horizon over the S Whites its very clear.  The hilltop is pitch black with the Milky Way blazing.  So unless you can see to the north  (assuming no towns) you miss it.  Between me and the Whites there are almost no lights.  (Downtown Plymouth to the NE).  If they get brighter and I can see them from the house I will repost.  They seem to change in brightness minute by minute.  When I just left they were very dim again....

Watching the Aurora Borealis right now looking North from Newfound Lake. Was a pretty good arc across the sky with some pillars a few minutes ago now it's tied down changes minute by minute

Skies extremely bright to the north.  Damn clouds!!  KP index 8!

I'm up on a Hilltop right now looking North in the sky looks extremely bright. About 75% covered by clouds but in between the clouds its very bright