wxeyeNH

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how long has it been since New England was truly inline for something this notorious ? 

I guess we had a couple of winter storms... 2015 ...but it just isn't the same.

Seems we reside in a charmed protection around here - nice..

The 18Z GFS was interesting since it has Flo looping around in the Carolinas long enough for the trough coming down from Canada yanking it NE through us as a 985mb low, around day 8.  Any chance of that happening?

Reading the 5pm NHC discussion they mentioned that new disturbance heading towards the Gulf.  Looking pretty healthy late this afternoon.  If the SE ridge gets broken down sooner than later wouldn't that perhaps give the southern solutions more credence?

20 minutes to the Euro.  I didn't see the end of the GFS.  Assumed it moved it off the coast and OTS.  Brings it right back inland.

Rapid intensification to a Cat 4.  Stronger storms more poleward.  Since this has intensified quicker than models a more northward path.  I'm favoring the GFS.  12Z keeps Florance stall offshore.  So at this point, the greatest threat would be extreme NC.  Intense hurricanes have the extreme winds in the eyewall.  If that remains just offshore damage will be much less.  Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro starts caving towards a more NE solution or continues to hold ground.  

8 hours ago, alex said:

Down to 32.9 already. Grr

Sorry Alex.   I see you scored a 29.8F.   I was almost going to respond to your post last night that I didn't think you would get a killing frost/freeze.  The high cirrus have been pesky and I thought that might save you.  So what was your growing season?  Third week of June to Sept 8th?   Cold in my house this AM but not going to start the stove or heat.  Nice warm low of 43F for me.

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dew just hit 40F here. Hopefully we tickle some 30s.

Yup.  time to pull out the sweatshirts.  Cloudy skies and low dews make it feel really cool out there.  Just created a fall NNE thread, time to move into the next season. Really looking forward to a good soaker early next week.

Time to start a NNE Fall Thread.  

1pm Sept 8, 2018.   First really  cool day up here.   58/43F with high overcast makes it feel very cool with the low dews and filtered sunshine.  Closed windows to retain house heat.  Determined not to fire up the wood burning stove tonight.   

Frost advisories flying for NNE.  Here we go into the next season.

Euro is again a SC hit.  Unlike the GFS which brings the storm inland and then up through NE as a soaker the Euro just stalls it in the Carolinas while they get epic rainfall.  Either way an OTS scenario is getting less and less and someone on on the east coast is going to get a wholp.  Especially with a southern solution, the storm will be a major at landfall.

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Not a bad scenario as the models show now. Can sit back and watch Flo rip someone's a$$ up from the comforts of my own home while enjoying the late summer weather as the WAR flexes its muscles. Not against that at all.

The 12Z GFS is a bit different.  Previous runs had the strong high over us keeping Flo south.  This run has Flo coming up the backside and crossing New England as a soaking rain maker.  As a front drops S from Canada it actually intensifies Flo as she continues northeast up the Maine coast and beyond.

I have the 12Z GFS out to almost 10 days on Weatherbell.  Landfall E NC.  Then north just west of DCA and then NNE to E PA and then W CN as a 999mb low on day 8.  That would track would bring a lot of wind to the east of the center.

Logan hits 97F.   

Dark blue skies  74F up here.  Windows open and nice breeze flowing through the house.  

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

0.31" with the fropa.

74/68F.   My thunderstorm/shower deflector works yet again.    .00001" 

84/73F    line of showers/storms just NW.  Last hour of heat/humidity.   Looking forward to a quick soaking shower.  Surface is very dry again.

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uninstalling 9/6 is a problem.  I end up covering the compressor in October and sometimes deep into the month.  A tropical system yielding 77/70 will require it.

Jerry,  remember.  Im 120 miles north and 1000 feet higher.  Climatologically I'm probably 2 weeks ahead of you into the season?  I can take a day of tropical downpours in the 70's with high humidity.  Just not these endless 80's and low 70's dews.  My AC is a portable noisy unit.  Time to go back into the barn closet!  I'll man up for the few more brief heat spells.  ....and yes you can say,  " I told you so"  when we get the next one.

Is this it for summer up here?  82/73F.  Showers/storms will be approaching in next couple of hours.  Then finally cool.  Took the AC just now.  Sick of that thing.  Still very warm days ahead but perhaps we are done with 80's and dews above 70F.   What a summer it was for heat and humidity.

Pretty rare to see the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS both showing Florence right in the area of Delmarva in about 8 days.  I'll take a decaying storm and a few inches of rain.  What a thresing this would be on the Mid Atlantic as she crawls northward.

0Z Euro had Florence going west into the SE US. 12Z Euro run brings Florence NW to the Delaware coast then stalls it before a slow east drift.  Strong high pressure blocks the storm from getting up here.  Not the setup for having a strong cane running up the coast.  

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Appreciate the kind words. It actually amazes me how long many of us have been doing this...and some like Jerry predated me on the primitive forums by 5 years. I started actually posting in 2004 on WWBB (though I had lurked even back to the ne.weather days in winter of 2000-2001). Jerry goes back to the TWC days. 

Given that these forums were started by true amateur weenies, I would personally give the honor (if we actually controlled it) of the millionth post to Jerry...consistency and longevity. Without the amateur weenies, we have no forum. Plus, I'm a sucker for nostalgia and he was the first one to really welcome me into the threads on WWBB when I broke out of my lurker shadow. Shoutout to ginxy too...I remember interacting with him very early on as well. He would be another candidate...been around the boards for decades now. 

It's amazing how many highs and lows we've gone through. The CT peeps had that stretch in Jan 2011, the E MA/RI crowd had the stretch in Jan/Feb 2015, the NNE peeps had dec 2007 and March 2017. Many single events mixed in including tornadoes, floods, TCs, ice storms, cold shots, heat waves, etc. We had the lows of 2011-2012 winter (2015-2016 for NNE) and the busted snowstorms and busted severe threats and underperforming air masses. Lol. The list goes on. But it's been a fun ride. Hopefully many more decades to come. 

I don't post that much but a few of us go all the way back to Todd Gross's ne.weather on usenet.  I remember meeting him at Ch 7 around 1995.  He showed me this new thing called the internet and how some people were posting obs that he was incorporating into his forecast.  I immediately started going to the Harvard Square internet cafe that had a connection.  Then went out and bought a $2000 Pentium computer and signed onto AOL.  Vast amounts of weather data rapidly became available.  I'm 61 so some of you youngsters were probably not even born.

Since you guys are talking about cars....   I bought the Prius Prime plug in 18 months ago. So cheap to run.   You can use the hybrid engine or just plug in to get the first 25-40 miles pure electric.  I have been getting near 40 miles on electric.  Takes about 6 KW to charge.  At .147 a KW thats 88 cents for the first 25-40 miles.  I usually drive less than that a day.  Once the electric is depleted the hybrid engine gets around 65 mpg.  Running electric is so quiet and instant torque.  The only problem is that it has a low base and is front wheel drive.  Up here on my NH hill it stinks so have the truck on snow days.

3 hours ago, Jakkel138 said:

Are the leaves starting to turn up there guys? I'm ready for fall and winter

No leaves changing up here in my area central New Hampshire. I even haven't had a low temperature under 50 degrees yet. 

With the exception of a couple of 67/8F dews in Maine and NH everyone in New England has dews 70F and above.  Pretty impressive for September without some tropical system nearby.  This is what Labor Day out to be.  A good old fashion summer day.   Fine with me as it ends right now.

Meanwhile later today it will be a southbound mass exodus of those Southern New Englanders.  Back to the normal traffic going by our house.

Starting to pay a slight bit of attention to Florence way out in the East Atlantic.  I assumed it was a fish storm with a recurve far, far out.  Reading the discussion this Sun AM it seems like it may stay fairly week for now and they adjusted the path south and west.  Looking at the Euro way out, at day 10 it has it approaching the east coast.  High pressure will be north and east of the storm and no strong trough to kick her out.  Maybe it will become some type of threat to the US?  EDIT:  Since I posted this the 12Z GFS has come out.  It was way east of the Euro at 6Z.  Now has come far west.  Still a miss for the East Coast but much closer.  Here is day 9.  I put the track in for day 10.  Would be a east Nova Scotia type hit.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, all hyperbole aside I'm noticing some yellow (widely scattered) in the mid-slope elevations (like 1,800-2,500ft) on the east side of Mansfield.  Those spots start to see earlier shadows as the afternoon sun in the west starts to get blocked by the ridgelines in the lowering sun angle and I'm pretty sure that's what triggers them.  

Yesterday I had to drive from my house in the Lakes Region up to Lancaster NH.  Took me through Franconia Notch.  Here and there I saw a few yellows but I couldn't discern any bonafided color change all the way up to treeline.  What I did notice was how much difference there is on the north side of the Whites in respect to upslope cloudiness.  Cool and overcast north and sunny and warm just to the south.

My Mother is visiting Alaska right now.  Will be in Denali National Park today.  Waiting to get a foliage report.  Most trees are evergreens up there but from what I read peak in the park is around the first of September.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I've never seen this much squirrel roadkill on the highway before. It's like 5/mile.

Maybe Jerry knows what it means.

Okay,  this is very weird.  I started noticing this too.  Actually in the spring.  So many squirrels and chipmunks.  Every morning I make my 6 mile trek to Duncan Donuts in Bristol NH and back.  I started a dear squirrel count in my head.  Up to about 50 squirrels. I don't count chipmunks, racoons and other animals.  The numbers are really increasing in the recent weeks but I think its because acorns are easy to see on the roads.  It's a massacre out there.  

Up here in Northern New Hampshire Lancaster. Overcast and very cool. I don't have my thermometer but people have sweaters I'm guessing in the low 60s with the low dews it definitely feels very chilly.